Houston Astros: The path to winning the American League West

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The Houston Astros are still the favorites to win the wild, wild AL West.

The Houston Astros winning the AL West has been a sure bet for the past trio of seasons, but what will it take to turn that trio into a quartet? Houston is the favorite to take the West once again, but as we all know the sport of baseball is full of surprises every year.

PECOTA has the Astros projected to win 98.6 games this season, which is 12.7 games better than the number two projected AL West team, the Los Angeles Angels. PECOTA is known for being a little hard on the projections and projecting lower than reality. For the 2019 season, PECOTA projected the Astros with a 99 win season and they ended 2019 with 107 wins instead.

To round out the division, PECOTA projects Oakland, Texas and Seattle to follow Houston and LA in the standings in that order. These projections are usually fairly accurate, however they are projections inside of a vacuum and can’t take into account many outside factors.

The Astros don’t have to have a perfect season to win the West, but they do have to avoid a few things and improve in some areas to ensure a fourth consecutive AL West flag flies in Minute Maid Park. Every team in the West has improved and has a chance to catch up (except the Mariners), so this is what the Astros need to do to continue their dominance of the West.

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – MARCH 10: Hitting coach Alex Cintron #37 speaks with Carlos Correa #1 while Yuli Gurriel #10 looks at video clips in the fourth inning during the spring training game against the New York Mets at FITTEAM Ballpark of The Palm Beaches on March 10, 2020 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Focus

These are all grown men wearing their big-boy pants, but it will be tough to focus strictly on baseball with the scrutiny and heckling the Astros are going to face all season long. These MLB superstars aren’t ones to shy away from the media or spotlight, but up until recently they have been seen as heroes. Now they’ve lived long enough to become the villains.

Recent health concerns have caused the MLB to change clubhouse policy regarding the media, but even without the media in the clubhouse, the Astros are going to see a constant flow of questions about the scandal and comparisons to playing now versus playing during the scandal years.

The hardest part will be fan interaction, however minimal it may be. Up until this year, there haven’t been many reasons not to like the Astros other than they win a lot. This year, every single win will be questioned by fans of other teams and those fans will voice it at ballgames.

With as much negativity that is going to follow this Houston team around all season long, focusing on what’s happening between the white lines will be paramount. As a wise philosopher once said, “Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.”

Health

Health is a factor in winning for any team. A team needs its best players on the field to provide the best on-field product, that is a given. The Houston Astros are no different than any other team in this aspect.

Spring Training has yet to come to an end and the first injury has already hit the Astros. Justin Verlander has been bitten by the injury bug, as a lat strain has hindered his spring and it looks like he won’t be ready for the beginning of the season. Luckily this injury will need rest and not surgery and Verlander should be ready to go by early April.

On the offensive side, Yordan Alvarez has had a hard time keeping his knee healthy. This injury prevented him from playing the field at times last season, and could take a toll on his offensive production. We can only hope it is just lingering soreness that subsides with time and there isn’t a larger underlying issue.

Outside of these two players, the roster has been fairly injury-free this spring, not counting the illness that was passed around the clubhouse. This relative health needs to continue on into the regular season.

Injuries happen, as it is a long season in the world of baseball, so it is just as much about how a team responds to an injury as it is staying healthy. In 2019 when the biggest names on the Astros were nursing injuries, Alex Bregman really stepped up and became the man during this time.

The health of a team is very important, and the Astros will need to keep their star players on the field. The fewer number of innings the team has to dip into their depth for a rotation or position spot, the chances of winning the West again grows.

NORTH PORT, FLORIDA – MARCH 10: Josh James #39 of the Houston Astros talks with Martin Maldonado #15 and Aledmys Diaz #16 against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning of a Grapefruit League spring training game at CoolToday Park on March 10, 2020 in North Port, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Improve

This section is more of a letter to General Manager James Click than anything else. Eight of the starting nine positions are locks when healthy. However, the team could improve the rotation, bullpen and catcher.

When Verlander’s lat improves, there are two solid options at the top of the rotation. After that, no one really knows. Lance McCullers Jr. is working back from UCL surgery and the rest of the options are totally unproven commodities.

Spring Training has been a mixed bag for the rotation hopefuls. Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Josh James, Forrest Whitley, Austin Pruitt and others have looked okay at times and absolutely horrible at other times. Spring Training stats don’t matter, but for players looking to earn a spot, it has been a little disappointing to see.

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For a team to earn a division title and make a run in the playoffs, it needs more than two good starting pitchers. The Astros are going to need one of the players listed above to step up or Click will have to find some help from outside the organization to continue their winning ways.

Garrett Stubbs and Dustin Garneau have had a very pleasant Spring Training this year, but neither is considered the number one catcher. Martin Maldonado is set for that spot and is more of a pitcher’s catcher than an offensive threat.

All nine offensive positions don’t have to be juggernauts for a team to be successful, but it helps to know that each spot in the lineup can help carry the load. Maldonado is a fine catcher, but his .289 career on-base percentage leaves a lot to be desired.

Stubbs or Garneau could blossom into the catcher the Astros need this year, or Machete himself could hold down the fort behind the dish, but it would be hard to disagree that Click should explore other options for catcher to improve the team.

Other than rotation help and more offensive production from a catcher, the only other room for improvement on the 26-man roster would be in the bullpen. This is something every team always looks to improve.

Will Harris, old reliable, isn’t in the pen anymore, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t good arms for Dusty Baker to call upon. However, with bullpens, you can never have too many good options. This upgrade could easily be covered in-house with someone like Bryan Abreu, Nivaldo Rodriguez or even Rogelio Armenteros.

The Road to the West

Love or hate the Houston Astros, it is hard to argue that the road to the AL West crown doesn’t go through Houston. Even if there are some question marks, this team is poised to be a tough one to take down.

LA and Texas made additions to their teams in the offseason that doubtlessly improve their chances. Oakland has an awesome young crop of pitchers that could blossom into aces. Did these teams do enough to take the fight to Houston this year?

Next. Jose Urquidy losing grip on rotation spot?. dark

If the PECOTA projections hold true, then it should be another great year for Houston baseball. If the Astros can keep their focus and their health while Click runs the baseball operations side well, it is hard to argue against the Astros taking their fourth AL West title in as many years.

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