Astros: MLB’s Top 30 prospects list for 2020 shows changes

MLB Pipeline revealed its top prospects lists for 2020, and here’s how the Astros list shapes up.

As we get ready for the start of the season, one of the best bits of information is the annual release of MLB’s top prospect rankings. It gives us a glimpse into how the club’s prospects are advancing and how the farm system as a whole ranks against the rest of the league. This year’s rankings for the Astros reflect some changes over last year’s.

What’s not changed, however, is that Forrest Whitley remains in the top spot among Astros prospects. The scouting report noted his tough 2019 season and how he’s adjusted his mechanics. The big takeaway, as we’ve known all along, is that “if he can maintain average control and command, his stuff will make him a star.”

What’s also unchanged is that Whitley is the only one among Astros prospects to make the league’s Top 100. He comes in at No. 19 overall, a slight drop from his No. 16 ranking last year.

In the Astros Top 30, Jose Urquidy, Abraham Toro, Freudis Nova and Bryan Abreu round out the Top Five. Interesting to note is that catcher Korey Lee, last year’s first-round draft pick, dropped from No. 3 to No. 8. There doesn’t appear to be a big reason for it, aside from the fact that other players simply ascended. He hit .268/.359/.371 in 64 games in Low-A ball last year and will look to build on that.

Now here’s a look at the biggest movers since last year.

Biggest Rises

The biggest jump went to right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown, who moved up from No. 22 last year to No. 9 this year. He was the team’s fifth-round pick in the 2019 draft and has a blazing fastball, though his control and his secondary offerings are still developing. The 21-year-old has only pitched in Low-A ball thus far, but he could turn into a late-inning relief weapon.

Right-handed pitcher Luis Garcia, ranked 29th last year, jumped to 17th for this year. He’s yet to pitch above High-A ball, but the 23-year-old has a career 2.50 ERA in three minor league seasons with a high strikeout rate. He’s a fastball-changeup guy with a still-developing slider but seems to profile more as a reliever.

Fellow righty Jose Alberto Rivera also made a 12-spot jump, from 30 to 18. The 23-year-old is another power arm, as he can reach triple digits with his fastball. The secondary pitches are still coming along, though, and like Garcia, probably profiles as a multi-inning reliever rather than a starter.

Jose Urquidy, ranked No. 11 in 2019, jumped all the way up to No. 2 this year. His stock has risen dramatically in the past year, capped off by his brilliant performance in Game Four of the World Series. He won’t be on this prospect list much longer as he’s expected to start the year in the Astros rotation.

Yet another right-handed pitcher, Jairo Solis, moved up from No. 19 to No. 10 despite missing the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. He’s a different type of pitcher than the others on this list — not quite the flamethrower, but more polished and with better secondary offerings. He’s still just 20 years old, so it’ll be interesting to follow how he fares this season.

Finally, outfielder Colin Barber, the Astros’ fourth-round draft pick in 2019, moved from 20th to 11th on the list. The club drafted him out of high school and gave him an above-slot bonus, and he’s already the franchise’s highest-ranking outfield prospect. The lefty has the upside to be a 20-20 guy with a solid average and good discipline, and his mentality has been compared to that of Alex Bregman. He’s still at least a couple years away from the majors, but the sky is the limit.

Biggest Falls

Outfielder Ronnie Dawson had a tough 2019 season, and thus fell completely off the Top 30 after ranking at No. 16 last year. We recently looked at how he’s getting some good experience in big league Spring Training, but he’s got some work to do at the plate if he’s going to make it.

Outfielder/first baseman J.J. Matijevic also fell off the board after being ranked 17th last year. In 73 games at Double-A, he hit .246/.314/.423 with 21 doubles and nine homers. He offers very little in terms of baserunning or defense and served a 50-game suspension in 2019 for testing positive for a drug of abuse. He’s going to have to hit well if he’s to advance.

Right-handed pitcher Peter Solomon, ranked 18th last year, also left the rankings. He missed most of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but did make a pair of strong starts in High-A ball before getting hurt. He’s already 23 and will have to spend 2020 focusing on finishing his recovery and getting back into form.

Pitcher Tyler Ivey, also a righty, fell from No. 6 to No. 16. What probably factored into that is he only threw 52 innings in 2019 due to an elbow sprain and a suspension for having a foreign substance on his glove. He was plenty effective when he pitched, working to a 1.57 ERA in 46 Double-A innings. The 2017 third-round pick offers a good mix of pitches and could be a dark horse to reach the majors this year.

The team’s third-round pick in 2019, outfielder Jordan Brewer, fell from 7th to 14th in the rankings. He struggled in his brief introduction to pro ball, but the right-hander possesses plus power and speed and has the ability to be a solid defender in center field. His first full professional season in 2020 will give more of an indication of where he stands.

Finally, catcher Garrett Stubbs fell from 14th to 23rd, though I don’t think anyone minds that too much. He’s got a shot to make the Opening Day roster, and he profiles more as a versatile backup than a starting catcher due to his relatively small size and poor pitch framing metrics (albeit in a small sample size).