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Astros fall behind Yankees, Dodgers in World Series odds

By Andrew Gleinser |
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 18: Gerrit Cole and Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 18: Gerrit Cole and Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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Offseason maneuverings have seen the Astros fall behind the Yankees and Dodgers in World Series odds.

It’s not been the best offseason for Houston Astros fans. First, key players Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, Will Harris and Robinson Chirinos left for greener pastures in free agency. Then the poo hit the fan with the sign stealing investigation, resulting in the firings of Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch and a black eye for the organization as a whole.

Now as we finally turn our focus to the 2020 season, the Astros have predictably fallen behind the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in the pecking order. The Astros currently have the third-best odds to win the World Series, with the Yankees and Dodgers sitting first and second, respectively.

This is predictable simply because the Astros lost some key players, most notably Cole and Harris, without really replacing them. The Yankees and Dodgers, meanwhile, have further added to their already-strong rosters, making them the prohibitive favorites to meet in the Fall Classic.

That, of course, would be a dream scenario for the league. The two biggest markets, east coast vs. west coast, two powerhouse teams and historic franchises. But the Astros will have something to say about that, as they are the defending American League champions.

Still, there’s something to be said about the fact that the Yankees and Dodgers have improved while the Astros have not. With that in mind, here’s how the Astros match up against the other two superpowers.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 18: Gerrit Cole and Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 18: Gerrit Cole and Manager, Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees pose for a photo at Yankee Stadium during a press conference at Yankee Stadium on December 18, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Yankees

The biggest factor to tip the balance in the Yankees’ favor was Cole’s move to New York. He becomes the bona fide ace they needed, and his absence from the Astros’ rotation will be conspicuous. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are a strong duo, and Lance McCullers Jr. can certainly baffle the Yankees bats, but there’s not much certainty beyond that.

The Yankees have a trio of Cole, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka that can match up against anyone. They’ll be without James Paxton for a few months, but he’s expected to be back in the second half of the season. That quartet may be able to trump any four the Astros could counter with, simply thanks to the quality of the Yankees’ depth.

We know how good the Yankees offense is. Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and DJ LeMahieu are the headliners, and a healthy season from Giancarlo Stanton would be a huge boost. The Astros’ depth and lack of injury concerns probably give them the edge here.

But the bullpens are another story. Even though their last appearance saw Jose Altuve launch one off Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees have a clear advantage. Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green make for a stout group. The Astros have Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly and Joe Smith, but a lot of question marks behind them.

On paper, the Yankees probably have the better team. But that’s on paper. The Astros have had their way with the Bronx Bombers in the postseason since 2015, so any postseason matchup between the two is going to mean more than just what the stats say. It would be another heavyweight bout to be sure, but can the Astros cobble together enough pitching?

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 06: Cody Bellinger #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on during batting practice prior to game three of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on October 06, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 06: Cody Bellinger #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on during batting practice prior to game three of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on October 06, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /

Dodgers

The big news with the Dodgers, of course, is the addition of Mookie Betts. The trade now gives them a pair of MVP winners in Betts and Cody Bellinger and adds further depth to an already-stout lineup. Max Muncy, Corey Seager, Justin Turner and A.J. Pollock join them to make a lineup that rivals what the Astros would counter with.

Their rotation is headlined by the young phenom Walker Buehler and the veteran Clayton Kershaw. They don’t have the same depth they have had in recent seasons, but David Price is a solid No. 3 with Julio Urias, Alex Wood and Jimmy Nelson competing to round things out. They also have prospect Dustin May waiting in the wings as added depth.

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The top of the Astros’ rotation in Verlander and Greinke probably has an edge over Buehler and Kershaw. McCullers and Price are both solid in their respective spots. But the Dodgers have better depth at the back of the rotation, with a couple of solid veterans mixed in with a couple of high-upside youngsters.

The bullpens each have their question marks. Kenley Jansen is still one of the game’s best closers, but there’s less certainty beyond that. Blake Treinen and Joe Kelly have plenty of upside but are both coming off poor seasons. Adam Kolarek and Pedro Baez put up solid numbers in the regular season last year but aren’t relied upon heavily in the playoffs.

Health permitting, the Astros know what they’re getting in Osuna, Pressly and Smith, so in that sense they may have an edge. But it’s hard to tell at this point which bullpen is better simply because there’s a lot to be worked out as the season goes on. Each team has to figure out who it can trust the most, and there’s not much certainty there right now.

So the offenses are probably a wash and the bullpens are too close to call. The Dodgers probably have a slight edge in the starting rotation, so it’s no wonder their odds are better. Plus they have more than enough star power. But the Astros are one of the few teams that could match up well against them, so we’ll see if the two end up meeting in the World Series.

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