SIMULATION: Astros trading Josh Reddick proves to be difficult

The Astros may look to trade Josh Reddick, but doing so may be difficult.

Each of the 30 FanSided MLB team sites are currently participating in a mock Winter Meetings simulation. Each team has a representative and is responsible for making trades, signing free agents and negotiating contract extensions. I, on behalf of Climbing Tal’s Hill, represented the Astros.

I’m going to provide recaps of the moves I make and discuss how they might compare to what happens in reality. Again, this is just a simulation, and the trade discussed below has not actually taken place, so please refrain from cries of “fake news.”

For me, the first order of business for the Astros was to trade Josh Reddick. The need to do so has already been discussed by my co-editor Brian Murray. Fans are divided on the issue, and that’s understandable. I like Reddick too, and he’s been a great asset to this team for the past three seasons.

But the bottom line is this: Reddick makes $13 million next season and he’s not needed. The Astros have five quality outfielders in George Springer, Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Jake Marisnick and Myles Straw. Whatever your opinion of Tucker may be, the team clearly views him as a franchise cornerstone, and it’s time he proves it. He can’t do that from the bench.

The team has precious little payroll space to work with, which we’ll go into in greater detail in a subsequent post. They simply can’t afford to pay $13 million for a player they don’t need, so as painful as it might be for some, Reddick needs to go.

The Difficulties

I reached out to a number of teams who had a need for a corner outfielder in an attempt to unload Reddick’s salary. What I quickly realized was I was getting the same answer from every one of them: “Thanks but no thanks.”

The Astros fans who don’t want to see Reddick traded are all making the same mistake — they’re overvaluing him. Yes, he is a strong defensive outfielder, and that does count for something. But he’s also been mediocre at the plate the past two seasons and will turn 33 in February.

His offensive numbers leave most teams to view him as a platoon player or fourth outfielder. With many other options available in free agency and the trade market, teams just aren’t interested in paying $13 million for a guy like Reddick when they can get someone else for cheaper. Maybe Jeff Luhnow will have better luck, but my attempts to unload his salary were fruitless.

With that being the case, I still needed to trade him simply because he’s a superfluous player. There were two remaining options; one would be to eat a portion of his salary if another team would take on the rest. The other would be to trade him for another bad contract.

In truth, I leaned toward acquiring another bad contract. Shedding only part of Reddick’s salary wouldn’t give me that much extra payroll room and might not really be worth it. By swapping bad contracts, perhaps I could at least turn that money into a more useful player. This is where I found the success I was looking for.

The Trade

This isn’t the trade I had expected to make when the simulation started, but it’s hard to complain about the outcome too much. I traded Reddick to the Braves in exchange for reliever Mark Melancon.

Melancon, like Reddick, is under contract for one more season. He’s set to make $14 million in 2020, and his agent in the simulation requested a $500,000 bonus to waive his no-trade clause, which we split evenly with the Braves. So instead of paying Reddick $13 million for one year, we’re paying Melancon $14.25 million for one year.

I admit it’s not ideal to pay a non-closer that much money, but consider the situation. Key relievers Will Harris and Joe Smith are free agents, and retaining Harris may be expensive. Ultimately in our simulation, the White Sox signed him to a two-year, $22 million deal, which meant I would have had to top that.

That would mean paying Harris around $12 million a year for two years as opposed to what I’m paying Melancon. And with the inability to get rid of Reddick’s salary, adding that extra money for Harris would have been tough to do financially. Getting Melancon softens the blow of losing Harris.

Melancon had some injury troubles in 2017 and 2018 but was healthy in 2019 and served as Atlanta’s closer down the stretch. In reality, the Braves just signed Will Smith, so they weren’t going to need him in that role.

Melancon would slide in next to Ryan Pressly and help in the late innings to set up Roberto Osuna. I hoped to add a late-inning veteran arm to the bullpen, so Melancon fills that role and repurposes the payroll space that had been allocated to Reddick. It may not have been the ideal outcome when I started, but it’s better than wasting $13 million on a guy you don’t need.