SIMULATION: Astros trading Josh Reddick proves to be difficult

The Difficulties

I reached out to a number of teams who had a need for a corner outfielder in an attempt to unload Reddick’s salary. What I quickly realized was I was getting the same answer from every one of them: “Thanks but no thanks.”

The Astros fans who don’t want to see Reddick traded are all making the same mistake — they’re overvaluing him. Yes, he is a strong defensive outfielder, and that does count for something. But he’s also been mediocre at the plate the past two seasons and will turn 33 in February.

His offensive numbers leave most teams to view him as a platoon player or fourth outfielder. With many other options available in free agency and the trade market, teams just aren’t interested in paying $13 million for a guy like Reddick when they can get someone else for cheaper. Maybe Jeff Luhnow will have better luck, but my attempts to unload his salary were fruitless.

With that being the case, I still needed to trade him simply because he’s a superfluous player. There were two remaining options; one would be to eat a portion of his salary if another team would take on the rest. The other would be to trade him for another bad contract.

In truth, I leaned toward acquiring another bad contract. Shedding only part of Reddick’s salary wouldn’t give me that much extra payroll room and might not really be worth it. By swapping bad contracts, perhaps I could at least turn that money into a more useful player. This is where I found the success I was looking for.

The Trade

This isn’t the trade I had expected to make when the simulation started, but it’s hard to complain about the outcome too much. I traded Reddick to the Braves in exchange for reliever Mark Melancon.

Melancon, like Reddick, is under contract for one more season. He’s set to make $14 million in 2020, and his agent in the simulation requested a $500,000 bonus to waive his no-trade clause, which we split evenly with the Braves. So instead of paying Reddick $13 million for one year, we’re paying Melancon $14.25 million for one year.

I admit it’s not ideal to pay a non-closer that much money, but consider the situation. Key relievers Will Harris and Joe Smith are free agents, and retaining Harris may be expensive. Ultimately in our simulation, the White Sox signed him to a two-year, $22 million deal, which meant I would have had to top that.

That would mean paying Harris around $12 million a year for two years as opposed to what I’m paying Melancon. And with the inability to get rid of Reddick’s salary, adding that extra money for Harris would have been tough to do financially. Getting Melancon softens the blow of losing Harris.

Melancon had some injury troubles in 2017 and 2018 but was healthy in 2019 and served as Atlanta’s closer down the stretch. In reality, the Braves just signed Will Smith, so they weren’t going to need him in that role.

Melancon would slide in next to Ryan Pressly and help in the late innings to set up Roberto Osuna. I hoped to add a late-inning veteran arm to the bullpen, so Melancon fills that role and repurposes the payroll space that had been allocated to Reddick. It may not have been the ideal outcome when I started, but it’s better than wasting $13 million on a guy you don’t need.

Reality Check

Is this a trade that’s likely to happen in reality? While I wouldn’t rule it out completely, I also wouldn’t expect it. Luhnow will probably look to trade Reddick, but I doubt he’d be keen to add any payroll in doing so.

What this simulation illustrates is how difficult this task will be. Fans often talk about how a team should trade a certain player but don’t consider whether other teams would even want that player.

For the fans who love Reddick, this should be a bit of a reality check. Other teams don’t view him as an All-Star caliber player who’s worth the money he’s going to earn next season, and many don’t even see him as an everyday player.

That will make shedding his salary a difficult task for Luhnow. I wouldn’t put it past him to find a way to get another team to take some or even most of that salary, but it’s not going to be easy. There’s no way Reddick would earn the kind of money on the open market that he’ll be making next year.

Stay tuned for more updates from our FanSided Winter Meetings simulation. We’ll have some free agent additions to discuss and even a new contract extension for one particular player.