Astros: Four free agent starting pitchers who could be fits

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The Astros will be searching for starting pitchers in free agency.

It’s that time of year, folks — shopping time! And no, I’m not talking about Christmas shopping. It’s hot stove shopping time, and the Astros have a list and will be checking it twice — and likely a few more times as well. One of the top items on the list is rotation help, and they could snag a free agent or two.

GM Jeff Luhnow confirmed to the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome that the team is indeed looking at starting pitchers and plan on bringing in multiple guys. Some could be guaranteed spots in the rotation, while others would be brought in to compete for one.

Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will likely be the top two, with Lance McCullers Jr. and Jose Urquidy penciled in as well. But there’s more than just one rotation spot open. Urquidy, while brilliant in September and October, is still a rookie and therefore somewhat of a question mark. McCullers, coming off Tommy John surgery, is highly unlikely to make 33 starts.

You can’t have too much pitching depth, as the Astros found out this season. Minor league guys Rogelio Armenteros and Framber Valdez struggled, as did Collin McHugh. Brad Peacock also missed most of the second half with injuries. Having a few extra veterans on hand to soak up innings would go a long way.

Of course the Astros will pursue Gerrit Cole, but in the event they are outbid, it seems more likely that they’ll go for pitchers who can be had on shorter deals for less money. The chances of them entering the Stephen Strasburg bidding appear to be slim.

I’ve already suggested one option in bringing back McHugh, who can pitch effectively out of the bullpen if he’s not needed in the rotation. But adding another couple of candidates to the mix would be beneficial. Here are five names who could be logical fits for the Astros.

Rich Hill

Yes, Hill will turn 40 years old before opening day. Yes, he’s made more than 25 starts in a season only once in his career, and that was back in 2007. He’s one of the oldest players in the game and he’s not that durable, so why would the Astros even consider him?

They should consider him because when he’s pitched, he’s been remarkably effective. The left-handed curveball specialist continues to put up strong numbers on the mound, even as he’s missed time with injuries. Ever since his resurgence in 2015, he’s been excellent.

In his time with the Dodgers beginning in late 2016, he’s posted a 30-16 record with a 3.16 ERA in 68 starts and one relief appearance. He’s averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a sterling WHIP of 1.079. Even as he’s aged, his effectiveness has not diminished.

Take this past season for example. Even though he only made 13 starts, he still posted a 2.45 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine. All this goes to show that when he’s on the mound, he hasn’t had any problem missing bats.

Part of that goes to a stat the Astros love — spin rate. Hill is among the best in the majors in spin rate on both his curve and his fastball. He’s also among the best in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.

Given his age, he could surely be had on a one-year deal, which would obviously appeal to the Astros. They probably can’t rely on him for 30-plus starts, but that’s okay. If you can get 20 effective starts from him on a one-year deal, wouldn’t you take that? I would.

Cole Hamels

Admittedly, this possibility would be on the high end of the financial spectrum. Hamels will probably command more money than any of the other possibilities on this list, but he will still come far cheaper than some of the top names.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts him to land a two-year, $30 million deal, which would not be unreasonable. The Astros would probably be fine committing to Hamels for two years, but it might not even take that. Hamels has said he would be open to a one-year deal with a contending club.

In fact, that’s what he’s looking for the most — a chance to win a ring. The Astros have as good of a chance as anyone to give him that, and they have a clear need in the rotation. Hamels could be a natural fit for several clubs, but Houston would undoubtedly be one of them.

As far as his performances goes, he’s no longer the ace he once was, but he’s still an effective mid-rotation starter. He pitched to a 3.81 ERA in 27 starts for the Cubs in 2019 after putting up a 2.36 ERA in 12 starts for them in 2018. However, he had a 4.72 ERA for the Rangers that season before the trade to Chicago.

He’s an accomplished postseason pitcher, holding a 3.41 career playoff ERA. He was also the MVP of the 2008 NLCS and World Series with the Phillies. Having that kind of pedigree in your rotation wouldn’t hurt at all. One a short deal, it’s worth a shot.

Danny Salazar

Salazar would fall under the “taking a flier” category. He’s made just one major league appearance over the past two seasons thanks to injuries, so he’s far from a sure thing. But that also means he could likely be had on a one-year, incentive-laden deal.

With that being the case, he’s worth the risk. He’s still young, only turning 30 years old this coming January. He’s largely been productive in the major leagues, with a career 3.82 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

The right-hander was a mainstay in the Cleveland rotation before being bitten by the injury bug. He has a career 3.12 postseason ERA, though that’s limited to only 8.2 innings. He was an All-Star in 2016 and won 14 games with a 3.45 ERA in 2015.

The question would be whether he’d be willing to come to Houston over a different club with a better chance of him making the rotation. This could work against the Astros, as they would likely not be comfortable guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation.

But if Salazar is willing to complete for a roster spot and wants to win, this could be a perfect fit. There’s nothing guaranteed with Salazar, but there’s also plenty of upside. If he’s able to stay healthy and at least partially return to form, signing him could prove to be a boon for the Astros.

Rick Porcello

The Astros already have two Cy Young Award winners in the rotation in Verlander and Greinke, with Verlander now being the reigning winner. Why not add a third to the mix in Porcello?

Granted, Porcello’s 22-win season in 2016 is an outlier. He’s a durable innings eater at this point, and his ceiling doesn’t go much higher than that. He’s made no fewer than 27 starts in every season since 2009, though his career 4.36 ERA makes him more of a mid-rotation guy.

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His 2019 season was more of a back-of-the-rotation one, as he finished with an unsightly 5.52 ERA for the Red Sox, though he still managed a winning record at 14-12. The numbers he put up this year can certainly be improved upon, as this was the first time he’d finished a season with an ERA over 5.00.

One thing that would appeal to the Astros are his Statcast numbers. He’s exhibited high spin rates on four of his five pitches, with his changeup being the exception. He’s also thrown a lot of sinkers, which the Astros would probably have him shift to more four-seam fastballs.

However, his four-seamer only averages around 91 mph, so he doesn’t have the elite velocity that Cole and Verlander have. His curveball, which has exceptionally high spin, was only his fourth-most used pitch the past three seasons. The Astros would probably have him throw more curves and sliders and use his four-seamer more selectively.

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That’s a lot of uncertainty, but it’s worth a shot. Coming off such a rough year, Porcello, who turns 31 next month, could probably be had on a one-year deal to rebuild his value and hit free agency again next year. MLB Trade Rumors pegs him for a one-year, $11 million deal, which is a worthwhile gamble to see if the Astros could help reverse his fortunes.

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