Astros: MVP, Cy Young awards preview, predictions

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Three Astros players are finalists to win the MVP and Cy Young awards.

The Astros already have a Rookie of the Year winner in Yordan Alvarez, which was largely just a formality after the impressive year he had. What comes next will be figuring out if the Astros can sweep the Rookie of the Year, MVP and Cy Young awards, and there’s a chance it could happen.

It’s all but guaranteed that an Astros player will win the Cy Young — the question is which one. Both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have strong cases, stronger than fellow finalist Charlie Morton. It’s just not clear whether Verlander or Cole has the edge, so either of them could conceivably win.

The MVP race has some real intrigue as well. Alex Bregman has a legitimate chance to win, made possible by Mike Trout missing the last few weeks of the season. But even with the fewer games, Trout still could win since he was just so darn good for the rest of the year. The voting will likely come down to those two, with Marcus Semien likely coming in third.

The Manager of the Year award, with results to be announced on Tuesday, does not feature AJ Hinch as a finalist. The Cy Young award results will come out on Wednesday, with the MVP results following on Thursday.

Keep in mind that the votes for these awards were submitted before the playoffs started, so only the players’ regular season results are taken into account. The postseason struggles of Bregman and Verlander, and the postseason dominance of Cole, do not factor in at all.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 29: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros reacts after allowing a solo home run to Juan Soto (not pictured) of the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning in Game Six of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 29, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Cy Young

This is going to be a tight vote, with there even being the possibility of a tie. It’s that close. We can run down the numbers between these two guys, but it’s hard to put one squarely ahead of the other.

In the old-school stats, Verlander has the slight lead in wins (21 to 20), while Cole has the slight lead in ERA (2.50 to 2.58). Those two stats will essentially cancel each other out. Verlander threw more innings (223 to 212.1) but Cole struck out more batters (326 to 300). Again, those may make little difference.

Verlander led the majors in WHIP (0.803 to Cole’s 0.895) and hits per nine innings (5.5 to 6.0) and led the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.14 to 6.79). Cole led the majors in ERA+ (185 to 179) and strikeouts per nine innings (13.8 to 12.1) and led the league in Fielding Independent Pitching (2.64 to 3.27).

Among those numbers, the WHIP and FIP totals stand out. Verlander has a sizable lead in WHIP, while Cole has a sizable lead in FIP. Whether an individual voter gives more weight to one or the other could determine how that voter chooses one player over the other.

There’s one more number that may factor in here, and that’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement). The Baseball-Reference version of the stat has Verlander at 7.8 and Cole at 6.8. This is a difference that could play heavily in the voting results.

One other thing to note is consistency. Cole wasn’t nearly as good in April and May as he was the rest of the year, while Verlander’s results were more even throughout the season. Cole’s second half was absurdly brilliant, and Verlander’s was excellent too, though not quite as much as Cole’s. Will voters look at Cole’s June-September dominance, or will they see that Verlander threw more innings and was more consistent?

Cy Young Prediction: Verlander

It’s splitting hairs trying to choose one, but in the end I think Verlander’s otherworldly WHIP, higher bWAR, greater innings total and general consistency will give him the ever-so-slight edge. Verlander also notched his 3,000th career strikeout this season, and while that shouldn’t necessarily factor in to the voting, it may be in the minds of some of the voters. I think he comes away with his second career Cy Young award.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 29: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros hits a solo home run against the Washington Nationals during the first inning in Game Six of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 29, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

MVP

This one has all kinds of intrigue, which is interesting because in late August it looked like Trout would win the MVP in a landslide. But lo and behold the game’s greatest player missed the rest of the season with an injury, leaving the door open for Bregman to enter the conversation.

Their overall numbers are both impressive. In just 134 games, Trout set a career high in home runs (45) which was second in the league, while Bregman hit 41 (tied for third) in 156 games. Bregman had more RBIs (112 to 104) and walks (119 to 110) and fewer strikeouts (83 to 120).

Bregman finished with the higher batting average (.296 to .291), while Trout was the leader in on-base percentage (.438 to .423), slugging (.645 to .592), OPS (1.083 to 1.015) and OPS+ (185 to 162). Bregman had more extra-base hits (80 vs 74) and total bases.

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In the bWAR stat, Bregman actually overtook Trout at the end, finishing with 8.4 to Trout’s 8.3. Again, that was largely a function of Trout being injured the final month of the season, so it will be interesting to see how voters weigh Bregman playing a full season versus Trout missing time.

However, Trout still had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. As such, he finished as the league leader in five different categories — on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and intentional walks. Bregman, meanwhile, only led the league in one category — walks.

There’s really not much debate that Trout was the better player until he got hurt. His numbers were far superior in many categories, and if he’d finished the season, we wouldn’t even be having this discussion.

However, Bregman did play 22 more games than Trout. He was also the best hitter on the league’s best team, while Trout’s Angels were non-contenders yet again. These factors will be important to some voters, which is why Bregman has a legitimate shot at winning the MVP award.

MVP Prediction: Trout

I think it’ll be fairly close, but in the end I think Trout’s excellence will mean more to the voters than his absence in the season’s last few weeks. He’s won two MVPs and finished in second place another four times, so that history will probably work in his favor as well.

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Bregman is certainly deserving, and he should be in more of these discussions over the next several years. But Trout is simply just too good.

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Three Astros players are finalists to win the MVP and Cy Young awards.

Cy Young

Cy Young Prediction: Verlander

MVP

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MVP Prediction: Trout

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