Astros: Predicting Gerrit Cole’s next team, contract

CTH writers make their predictions for Astros ace Gerrit Cole‘s next destination and payday.

Today marks the first day that free agents can negotiate and sign with other teams, meaning Astros ace Gerrit Cole is now open for business — or, rather, his agent Scott Boras is. Cole is the offseason’s premier free agent and should have no shortage of teams with legitimate interest.

He is coming off a dominant two-year run with the Astros, posting a 35-10 record and 2.68 ERA with 602 strikeouts in 65 regular season starts. He also has a career 2.60 ERA in the postseason, so there’s no Clayton Kershaw effect with him.

Helping his case even further is he just turned 29 years old in September, so he should still have a few prime years left to give his next team. He’s also durable, having made 32 or more starts in four of the last five years.

In short, Cole is a bona fide ace and should continue to be for at least a few seasons, meaning he has more value than any free agent pitcher we’ve seen in quite some time. His list of suitors will be long, and Boras will be sure to extract every dollar he can.

The Astros will surely be interested in a reunion, and undoubtedly Cole would be willing to return to Houston if the price is right. Fans will be clamoring for his return as well, but how likely is it? Well, it depends on who you ask.

With that in mind, your friendly CTH writers offer their predictions on where Cole will land and just how much money he’ll end up getting.

Brian Murray

The 2019 season has passed us by and is nothing but a memory, and now it’s that time of year when everyone begins to focus on the next season. What will the 2020 roster look like? Who will be re-signed and what trades will transpire in the offseason?

One of the biggest question marks going into next season is who will be the five pitchers in their starting rotation. In 2018, the Astros lost Charlie Morton to free agency and now a year later, Houston is on the verge of losing strikeout leader Gerrit Cole.

As Cole gave his heartfelt goodbye message to Houston, the fans were clamoring for GM Jeff Luhnow and the front office to not let him go. Sign him up to another contract! But as great as that would be, is it really feasible?

Unfortunately, the Astros are already finding themselves cash-strapped with just 19 players on their current 25-man active roster. It would take some miraculous maneuvering to fit a contract the size of what Cole will demand into their payroll. Luhnow has pulled off some pretty spectacular deals, but I think even this one is beyond his realm.

It will take a team with deep pockets to be able to sign what may be a record deal for a pitcher, especially with Scott Boras as Cole’s agent. The teams that fit that description and are in the hunt for a top starter are the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals, just to name a few.

The Nationals will want to replace Stephen Strasburg, who opted out of the final year of his contract. The Yankees got close to acquiring Cole in 2017, so there is an obvious attraction there, not to mention Cole was apparently a lifelong Yankee fan. The Phillies are determined to do whatever it takes to get back into competition with the Nats and the Braves. There are rumors that Cole would like to go back home to the West Coast.

My gut feeling is that Philadelphia is the team that is the most desperate, although you never know what’s going to happen in the offseason. Sometimes a team that no one suspects will come out of the woodwork and snatch up a top free agent like Cole. So if Cole doesn’t sign back up for Houston, which I seriously doubt, my odds on favorite are the Phillies.

Whoever Cole signs with for the 2020 season, I wish him the best of luck. Just please, please don’t let it be the New York Yankees.

Prediction: Phillies — Seven years, $240 million

Andrew Gleinser

Keeping Cole in an Astros uniform is a worthy goal, and Jeff Luhnow and Jim Crane should be putting forth every effort to make it happen. But when looking at the team’s payroll, I don’t see a legitimate way they can afford it.

With extensions for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman kicking in, as well as arbitration raises for several key players including George Springer, Carlos Correa and Roberto Osuna, the Astros payroll for 2020 is projected to be hovering around $200 million — and that’s before filling any other holes. Both catchers are free agents, as are key relievers Will Harris and Joe Smith.

Paying Cole north of $30 million a year would push the team well over the $208 million luxury tax threshold, which Crane has stated he does not want to surpass. If they’re intent on keeping Cole, it would require trading both Josh Reddick and George Springer, in all likelihood. Reddick is probably gone regardless, but losing Springer may not be worth it.

As far as other teams go, there should be plenty of interest. In the National League, I would expect the Phillies and Nationals to have some interest, as the Phillies need pitching and the Nationals may lose Stephen Strasburg. Cole is from southern California, so I would not be surprised to see the Padres try and splurge on an ace to go with their strong young core. You also can’t count out the Dodgers with their seemingly endless resources.

In the AL, of course the Yankees will be in the mix, and I expect them to be there right until the end. They have a clear need and plenty of money (they’re the Yankees, after all). But the team I expect him to end up with is close to home for him and has the need and resources to get him. Unfortunately for the Astros, it’s the division rival Angels.

The Angels haven’t been able to field a strong pitching staff for years, and they lack a true ace. They also have the game’s best player, Mike Trout, locked up through 2030, but he’s only seen the postseason once. They have to be desperate to capitalize on his prime, and signing Cole would be a big step in that direction.

Plus, they’ve shown the propensity to give out mega contracts to players. They gave Trout north of $400 million, and they guaranteed $240 million to Albert Pujols, $125 million to Josh Hamilton and $75 million to C.J. Wilson. Owner Arte Moreno will open the pocketbook for the right player, and who better than Cole?

It puts him close to home and will of course make him the highest paid pitcher in the game. It’s true that he probably won’t win as much in Anaheim as he would in Houston, but the Angels giving Cole a fleet of Brinks trucks would at least show him they’re committed to winning. He’ll pair with Shohei Ohtani atop the team’s rotation and be backed by Trout and some other solid position players.

With Cole’s relative youth and impeccable track record, I think he easily surpasses David Price‘s record total guarantee for a pitcher. With the Yankees and others in the bidding, his price could soar well past that. In the end, I think the Angels outbid everyone and bring Cole home.

Prediction: Angels — 8 years, $275 million