Examining the Astros overtaxed bullpen situation

The Astros bullpen has been battered lately, but how much trouble is this group really in?

To say the Astros pitching staff has underperformed recently would be putting things mildly. Much has been said and written about the starting rotation’s woes, as the Astros are in clear need of another reliable starting pitcher.

But the bullpen, once a clear strength, has taken its lumps lately as well. Part of that can be traced to the rotation, as an increasing number of short, poor starts has put more strain on the pen. A couple of long outings by Cy Sneed have helped, but the guys in the bullpen are a little overtaxed right now.

Things aren’t getting any better on that front with the news of Brad Peacock’s setback. With Framber Valdez starting on Monday and a possible bullpen day on Tuesday, the bullpen may get worse before it gets better.

Also, it’s fair to note that a few of these pitchers were performing to otherworldly levels earlier in the season, so some natural regression was inevitable. There’s a reason guys don’t finish full seasons with a 0.50 ERA in the major leagues. You may have a good stretch where you pitch like that, but sooner or later the hitters catch up.

With the July trade deadline coming up, now is a good time to examine the state of the bullpen to get a good idea of where the team stands. Is this group going to be enough to help the Astros win another championship, or should Jeff Luhnow go shopping for a reliever too?

For the purposes of this exercise, I’m breaking the team’s bullpen up into three groups — the back end, middle relief, and the mop-up guys.

The Back End

Earlier in the season, the back of the Astros’ bullpen was simply unhittable. The combo of Ryan Pressly in the eighth inning and Roberto Osuna in the ninth was as certain as they come. Now, things are not quite as certain as they once were.

To be fair, this was an area where some regression was inevitable, considering how truly dominant they were in April and May. Osuna in particular seems to have struggled lately, but this is still one of the best late-inning tandems in the game.

Osuna’s ERA had dropped all the way to 0.42 in the second half of May, but he allowed five runs in his next three appearances. He righted the ship after that and was actually enjoying a run of six straight scoreless appearances going into the All-Star break.

He has struggled in the last two games, of course, but his season ERA still sits at a very respectable 2.33. Perhaps a couple days of rest would help, but there’s no reason to be concerned about Osuna at this point.

Pressly did not allow a run in his first 19 appearances this season. He struggled a bit in June, but hasn’t been scored upon in five July appearances thus far. His season ERA still sits at a microscopic 1.31, and there’s no better setup man in the game right now.

In short, the Astros are fine here. Osuna’s put together two poor appearances, but that’s far from reason for alarm. When it comes to trades, the team has a much greater need in the rotation than at the back of the bullpen.

Middle Relief

This group has been somewhat hit-or-miss lately, but there’s enough talent here to be sure. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m including Hector Rondon, Will Harris and Collin McHugh in this category.

Rondon’s been the least effective of this bunch, especially lately. He’s been taken deep in each of his last two appearances, and his ERA has slowly climbed throughout May and June. It’s jumped up to 3.44 thanks to his latest outings.

There’s further cause for concern when looking at his overall numbers. His ERA is respectable, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 4.88, suggesting he’s greatly benefited from some good luck in the field. His WHIP is nearly identical to last year’s mark, but there’s an even more worrisome stat.

Rondon’s home run rate has doubled from last year’s, and his walk rate has also spiked. What’s worse, his strikeout rate has declined precipitously, down to just 7.4 per nine innings after being north of 10 in each of the past three seasons. This has resulted in a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio that is much worse than his career average.

On the other hand, Harris has enjoyed a bit of a renaissance this season, although he’s taken a hit lately. He allowed five runs (three earned) across his first three July appearances before striking out the only batter he faced on Saturday. Still, his season ERA sits at 1.91, which would be his best since 2015.

McHugh actually has yet to pitch since the All-Star break, which seems borderline criminal. He’s clearly in no position to move back into the rotation, so he should be utilized out of the bullpen as best as he can. This can only be good for the bullpen as a whole.

McHugh allowed just one run in seven relief appearances since coming off the IL, and he did post a sterling 1.99 ERA in relief in 2018. With Rondon in particular struggling lately, McHugh should get more of those seventh-inning and high-leverage situation assignments. He’s shown he can do it, and Rondon could use a rest.

Still, this is a solid group overall. Perhaps the Astros could add a lefthander to the mix, but they would be in fine shape going into the postseason with these guys forming the bridge to Pressly and Osuna.

The Mop-Up Guys

Here we’ll take a look at the guys who are fixtures in the bullpen but aren’t really candidates for the most important situations. As of now, this includes Chris Devenski, Josh James and Joe Smith.

Devenski’s fall from grace has been difficult to watch. He was one of the game’s best relievers in 2016 and 2017, but 2018 and 2019 have been a different story entirely. He still strikes out hitters at a good pace, but his home run rate has increased and his rate of allowing hits has really spiked.

It’s also not as if he’s had one particularly bad stretch, as he’s been hot and cold pretty much all season. He’s been scored upon in two of his four July appearances, resulting in a season ERA sitting at 4.54. He’s just not a candidate for meaningful innings anymore.

Everyone knows how electric James’ arm is, but that hasn’t translated into sustained success. He strikes out hitters right and left, but he’s also allowing a whopping 5.7 walks per nine innings. He’s also failed to develop any consistency.

Some games he looks like closer material, while in other games he looks just plain lost. If he can’t get his electric repertoire under control, he’s of little use and may end up without a spot on the playoff roster. A slight improvement in that department may push him ahead of Devenski, but right now they’re in a battle to not be the worst guy in the bullpen.

I put Smith on this list simply because he hasn’t pitched yet this season, having just come off the IL. He was solid but unspectacular in 2018, posting a 3.74 ERA in 56 appearances. At age 35 and recovering from an Achilles injury, the Astros may be unsure of what he can give them.

Still, he’s a veteran arm and could move into more of a middle relief role if he can pitch well enough down the stretch. He’s more of a candidate to pitch one inning or less and may be limited to facing right-handed hitters, but there’s a role for him if he can take it.