What are the chances the Astros trade for Max Scherzer?

The Numbers

Not only has Scherzer been excellent, he’s also been consistently excellent. He’s won three Cy Young Awards and has finished in the Top 5 of the Cy Young voting in six consecutive seasons. He’s led his league in strikeouts and WHIP in three straight seasons and managed to crack the 300-strikeout mark in 2018.

Scherzer has also been incredibly durable, having made at least 30 starts in every season since 2009. He’s got six straight seasons of 200-plus innings, and his highest ERA in that span was the 3.15 mark he posted in 2014.

Scherzer will turn 35 shortly before the trade deadline, but he’s showing no signs of slowing down. He leads the majors in strikeouts this season and has a 2.52 ERA in 17 starts. Amazingly, he also leads the NL in rate of allowing home runs, with just 0.6 allowed per nine innings. This would be a career-best mark for him.

He is also posting his lowest walk rate since 2015. Additionally, metrics like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and ERA+ rate his performance so far this season as the best of his career. So if the Astros were to acquire him, they wouldn’t be getting an over-the-hill guy whose best years are behind him. His best years are right now.

Scherzer is also well-known throughout the game as an incredibly intense competitor. The guy is simply a beast and would be a welcome addition to any team.

Could the Astros Snag Him?

The first question would be if he’ll even be available, and chances are he won’t be. Entering play on Saturday, the Nationals are 41-40, just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. With that being the case, the Nationals may actually be buyers at the trade deadline, depending on how they do in July. With a solid month, they’ll be in the thick of the playoff race.

It would take a monumentally bad July for Washington to consider selling. Even if they did, I don’t think they would trade Scherzer unless they were completely blown away with an offer. They would be more likely to trade guys who are expendable or who are in the last years of their deals.

With Bryce Harper gone to Philadelphia, Scherzer is now the face of their franchise and is under contract for two more seasons. Even if the Nationals crater in July, they would fully intend to be contenders in 2020. You don’t do that by trading your ace away.

Plus, let’s not forget the Astros had a deal in place for Harper last year before Nationals ownership nixed it. If their ownership wouldn’t trade a pending free agent in Harper, they surely won’t trade Scherzer. The idea of moving him may simply be a non-starter.

Still, the Nationals front office would at least listen to trade proposals if they fall out of contention in July. But it would probably take an astronomical offer to pry Scherzer loose, and the Astros might not be interested in doing that.

What Would Scherzer Cost?

Let’s say theoretically that Washington would consider moving him. What would the Astros have to give up to acquire Scherzer? As noted previously, they would probably have to blow the Nationals away with a rich offer to get the deal done.

The Astros might be fine with trading Kyle Tucker, but Washington already has good young talent in its outfield. The Nats would probably prefer Forrest Whitley to replace Scherzer, and that would just be the starting point. It would probably take another of the team’s top 10 prospects, plus a mid-level prospect to get close to a deal. They might also have to outbid other suitors such as the Yankees.

If the Astros are intent on keeping Whitley, it might take both Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas, plus another solid prospect as well (perhaps in the top 15 prospects in the organization). But if another club is willing to offer their best prospect, the Astros would have to raise or fold.

Then there’s the issue of Scherzer’s salary. His total salary for this year and the next two years is just north of $126 million. Yes, that’s $42 million per season. A good chunk of that is deferred through 2028, but nonetheless that’s a lot of money.

The Astros are wanting to stay under the luxury tax, and picking up Scherzer’s tab could seriously jeopardize that. The Nationals would undoubtedly want a trade partner to pick up a significant portion of the money, but the Astros could be limited in that regard.

The Verdict: Extremely Unlikely

Astros fans can dream, but if we’re being realistic, this just isn’t happening. Scherzer most likely won’t be available anyway, but even if he were, there are several obstacles to completing a deal.

If the Nationals were to consider trading him, the Astros would certainly kick the tires, at least. They’ll do their homework on every pitcher who would potentially be available. But Jeff Luhnow learned from the Carlos Gomez trade that it’s better to not make a move than it is to make a bad one. He’ll do everything he can to make the team better, but he won’t overpay.

It would be nice to have Scherzer, but acquiring him would not guarantee the Astros another ring. Fans should set their sights on more realistic targets, and there are several who could possibly end up in an Astros uniform before August 1. Scherzer is not the only pitcher who could give the Astros staff the boost it needs.

***Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference***