Astros trade speculation: Sonny Gray is a worthy reclamation project

The Astros have a need at starting pitcher this offseason. Oh, look, the Yankees are probably going to trade a former ace soon.

Before you groan and complain how the Astros shouldn’t trade for Sonny Gray, I think there is a compelling, or at least mildly interesting, case for the argument. It is also the type of move that Houston’s front office has thrived on since Jeff Luhnow became the general manager in 2011. A reclamation project, if you will.

One reason why a team like the Astros should show interest in Gray: He has had success in the past, and the right-hander is only 29-years old. For a starting pitcher, 29-years old isn’t all that old. His average pitch velocity has varied in recent years, but the changes are relatively close.

Now, the Yankees did alter Gray’s pitch usage during the past two seasons. Sheryl Ring of FanGraphs had a post here back in late April that broke down the notable decrease in Gray’s fastball and sinker usage. Jeff Sullivan, also of FanGraphs, had a post early in the 2018 season here that highlights how the Yankees are throwing less and less fastballs. The subsequent results speak for themselves.

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In 2015 with the A’s, Gray finished his season with a 2.73 ERA and 3.45 FIP. He threw a variation of a fastball, excluding a sinker, 39% of the time. Fast forward to 2018 and the same pitch usage drops to 27.3%. While it is lazy and irresponsible to make any definitive claims based on such limited data, I’d like to believe that a correlation between pitch usage and his results are possible, if not likely.

A change of scenery is sometimes warranted

While Gray’s 3.72 ERA and 4.87 FIP in 2017 with the Yankees wasn’t great, he wasn’t outright dreadful either. But the results of his 2018 season didn’t improve his standing with New York. No one in New York will embrace a starting pitcher with a 6.98 ERA at Yankee Stadium. However, his road splits was actually, do I dare say, good.

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In his 15 appearances away from Yankee Stadium this year, Gray looked like a much better pitcher. In fact, he looked like his old self from when he pitched for Oakland. I can’t help but wonder if the opinion of him in New York would be different if the home and road splits were flipped. While it is irresponsible to construe whether Gray did or didn’t like pitching in Yankee Stadium based on the splits, interested front offices may see something there buried deeper than the surface level stats here.

There are instances player and a team doesn’t gel like everyone expected. On paper, Gray and the Yankees looked like a perfect match on paper. The Yankees have a quality analytics department themselves, so you know the home and road splits are something that they’ve noticed. Sometimes a change of scenery is all that is needed. A new atmosphere, fresh voices, and perhaps a different approach.