Astros trade speculation: Sonny Gray is a worthy reclamation project

The Astros have a need at starting pitcher this offseason. Oh, look, the Yankees are probably going to trade a former ace soon.

Before you groan and complain how the Astros shouldn’t trade for Sonny Gray, I think there is a compelling, or at least mildly interesting, case for the argument. It is also the type of move that Houston’s front office has thrived on since Jeff Luhnow became the general manager in 2011. A reclamation project, if you will.

One reason why a team like the Astros should show interest in Gray: He has had success in the past, and the right-hander is only 29-years old. For a starting pitcher, 29-years old isn’t all that old. His average pitch velocity has varied in recent years, but the changes are relatively close.

Now, the Yankees did alter Gray’s pitch usage during the past two seasons. Sheryl Ring of FanGraphs had a post here back in late April that broke down the notable decrease in Gray’s fastball and sinker usage. Jeff Sullivan, also of FanGraphs, had a post early in the 2018 season here that highlights how the Yankees are throwing less and less fastballs. The subsequent results speak for themselves.

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In 2015 with the A’s, Gray finished his season with a 2.73 ERA and 3.45 FIP. He threw a variation of a fastball, excluding a sinker, 39% of the time. Fast forward to 2018 and the same pitch usage drops to 27.3%. While it is lazy and irresponsible to make any definitive claims based on such limited data, I’d like to believe that a correlation between pitch usage and his results are possible, if not likely.

Spin rate isn’t everything, but it does count for something

The Astros are well-known throughout the baseball world for their interest in high spin rates. After all, Houston’s pitching staff had the highest spin rate — 2379 RPM — in baseball this year. Astros’ pitchers Ryan Pressly, Justin Verlander, Will Harris, and Collin McHugh were in the top-33 in average spin rate. Oh, Gray was 34th.

I do realize a high spin rate doesn’t necessarily translate into success, much like a high velocity pitch. Pitching also depends on ball movement and where a pitcher locates. Spin rate is just one component of the equation. It was a pitch measurement until recently that was likely undervalued in baseball. One could argue that teams are starting to overvalue it, but this is only a hunch right now. However, there is no denying that the Astros have had success with high spin rate pitchers lately.

If there is one concern I have with Gray, it is simply this: Why couldn’t the Yankees fix him? As I pointed out from Jeff Sullivan’s article, New York did adopt a less fastball approach, at least in the early going. Instead of relying on Gray’s past pitch usage, they insisted on their approach. They most likely had data and evidence backing up their assertions. The Yankees’ front office is considered one of the best in the game, and they have tremendous resources. But each baseball organization is different, because people are different. Ideas are not universally shared or agreed upon.

Perhaps the Astros can fix Gray. Maybe not. I’m not sure, but they should at least explore the option. Smart baseball teams, like the Astros, do that. What do they have to lose?