Astros: Why the path for AL supremacy runs through Houston

At first glance, the path for AL supremacy likely involves the Astros in some shape or fashion.

The Astros are projected by Fangraphs’ Depth Charts to win 98 games in the 2018 season. That’s currently the highest projected win total in baseball by three games. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs, of the NL, are projected to win 95 games.

In terms of the AL, the Astros’ current projected win total, again, 98, is five games better than the second-highest win projection, the Cleveland Indians. The only other teams in the AL projected to win over 90 games this season are the Boston Red Sox (92) and the New York Yankees (91).

If you hop over to Baseball Prospectus, you’ll find the Astros are projected to win 99 games. Good news, right? However, the projected win totals for the Indians (97) and Yankees (96) are a bit closer. There isn’t much separation between those three teams. Strangely enough, the Red Sox fall to 86 projected wins.

*Author looks at Boston’s roster*

Oh, yeah, I can see why. Of course, J.D. Martinez would push the projected win total higher if he, you know, actually signs with the Red Sox. That’s besides the point.

So, you may be pondering why I bother to examine the projected win totals? It’s simple as I needed confirmation that may own bias towards the Astros is actually warranted for once.

By the consensus from various sources and our own eyes, Houston is expected to be one of the best teams in baseball. The roster, on paper, is one of the top five. Easily. I can list the names and stats, but I don’t have to. You’re likely in the know already about the Astros.

Only the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees and Indians could likely challenge Houston in terms of talent on the roster.

At this point in time, any comparison is just nitpicking the differences between the clubs. Remember that each team isn’t a carbon copy of the others.

For example, the Yankees’ bullpen ought to be better than the Astros’ on paper. The batting lineups of Houston and New York (AL) will be close, yet I give the edge to the Astros due their more patient approach. Keywords: strikeouts and contact. The starting rotation is about a push, however, Gerrit Cole likely gives the Astros an edge. Again, this is just nitpicking. Both are quality teams, so, yeah, there’s no clear superior squad. And I did pick the Yankees as an example due to the popularity factor right now. Hey, it doesn’t make the comparison any less relevant.

Quite frankly, the Astros have earned the right to make claims like the one Justin Verlander did on Valentines Day. They did win the AL, and World Series, after all.

That said, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs had an interesting post about the failure of super-teams. Essentially, there have been times when a team with fairly high projected win totals actually failed to meet the expected number. I’m not saying that this will happen to the Astros, but I do want to keep the expectations realistic. Spoiler alert: there is a small chance. I do not have an exact number or anything, but I have a gut feeling it’s a small probability. And, yes, even small probabilities matter.

Next: Looking at Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections for Carlos Correa

If everything goes the way as the projections, well, project, then the orher teams who want to represent the AL in the Fall Classic this year have a tall task. And that tall task is dethroning the Astros, the current overlords of baseball.

**Statistics and information courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus**