Astros: Looking at Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections for Carlos Correa

The projections are quite favorable towards the Astros this year.

As the new season draws near, FanGraphs’ annual ZiPS projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski, have been published. To begin, let’s take a look at one of the more intriguing cases on the Astros’ roster – Carlos Correa.

Correa managed to put up 6.3 WAR in 2017 despite only amassing 481 plate appearances. He was worth 6.0 WAR in 2016, when he had 660 PAs. This points to continued development for the young slugger.

For 2018, it all depends on his health. If he plays in 150-plus games, there’s no reason why he can’t blow past 6.3 WAR and challenge for an MVP award. With that, here are the projections.

Playing it Safe

The ZiPS projections have Correa hitting to the tune of a .298/.378/.522 line with 31 doubles, 27 homers and 111 RBIs. This comes out to about 5.7 WAR. It’s important to note that these projections have him amassing 590 plate appearances.

This is a step down from Correa’s 2017 numbers, when he hit .315/.391/.550 with 24 homers. Those numbers were in spite of his missing significant time with a thumb injury. If he stays healthy in 2018, these projections could be rather conservative.

Keep in mind that Correa beat the 2017 ZiPS average projections. He was projected to slash .280/.358/.489 in 2017, which he easily topped. If not for the injury, he would have surpassed the projections on the counting stats as well.

So the verdict on Correa seems to be that if he can stay healthy all season, he should have no problem running circles around these numbers. With 150 games under his belt, I could see him approaching the 35-40 homer range and supplanting Jose Altuve as the reigning MVP.

Next: New York's State of Mind

***Statistics and information courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference***

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