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Astros Countdown: Top Five Players to Watch in July
The Astros regressed a bit in June.
The Houston Astros had their worst record of the season in the month of June. That is not saying much though. The Astros won 16 of 26 games and still have a firm hold on the American League West lead, with the Los Angeles Angles in second place 13.5 games back.
The month of July could be very important for the Astros. In the aftermath of the All-Star Game in the middle of the month. Astros fans could see some roster moves and changes by the trade deadline at the end of the month. Here are the top five players to watch in the month of July.
Ken Giles
Giles has been a very consistent closer for the Astros this season. In 32 games, he has saved 18 games in 20 opportunities, already matching his opportunity total from last season.
Even though his 3.56 ERA may seem a little high for a pitcher in his role, he has been very difficult to hit this season. With opposing hitters hitting only .196 off him, Giles has struck out 39 batters in 30.1 innings of work this season, striking out hitters 31.2 percent of the time.
One of the main issues with Giles is his control. Using a high-nineties fastball and a mid-eighties slider, he is walking batters 9.6 percent of the time, the highest rate of his career. He is averaging a career high 3.56 walks per nine innings this season.
After a stellar month of May with a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 appearances, Giles struggled a bit in June. Coming into the last day of June, he has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP, giving up both of his home runs in 10 innings this month. He was still reliable in the closer’s role though; converting four of five save opportunities.
With a probable playoff spot coming in October for the Astros, the month of July is very important for Giles. He has been reliable, but July is when Giles could turn from consistent to lights out.
Josh Reddick
After signing a four-year $52 million dollar contract in the offseason, Reddick has fit right into the Astros outfield. When the Astros signed him, fans knew what they were going to get; a contact-heavy, good fielding right fielder with a good personality. The Astros got much more.
This season, Reddick has a career high in both batting average (.308) and OPS (.862). Part of that is his increased power. Even though his home run numbers are not anything crazy, hitting eight through 68 games, he does have a career high slugging percentage of .504.
Reason for the turnaround?
Part of that has to do with his increased extra-base power. He has 17 doubles this season, matching his 17 doubles from a year ago, with three triples. Usually batting near the top of the lineup, Reddick’s run production has increased drastically as well, scoring himself 49 times in 240 at bats compared to 53 times in 398 at bats in 2016.
Reddick had a breakout month of June for the Astros. In only 72 at-bats, the 30-year-old right fielder hit .389 with a 1.035 OPS. He hit nine of his 17 doubles this season in 19 games while hitting two home runs and driving in 10 RBIs.
The main thing to watch with Reddick is to see whether he can keep this up in July. His success at the top of the lineup makes the Astros offensive attack that much deeper.
Brad Peacock
The month of June was Peacock’s first solely as a starting pitcher. In five starts, he was solid, going 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 24.1 innings.
However, like Giles at the end of the bullpen, Peacock really struggled with control. With only a .213 batting average against, he walked 17 batters compared to 19 hits, raising his WHIP to a not-so-good 1.48. Three of his five starts in the month of June were starts in which he threw more than four walks, walking six in his last start against the Oakland A’s on June 29th.
A number of walks affected the amount of time Peacock lasted in his starts in the month of June. His longest outing of the season was on June 4th, and he threw 86 pitches through only six innings in his win over the Texas Rangers. He threw strikes only 61 percent of the time this month, which is not what you want to see if you are a starting pitcher.
The Astros seem to like Peacock in the starting role. He has been close to unhittable in that role. However, July is the month to see if his control improves. Walking batters 14.4 percent of the time is unacceptable. If that lowers, he will last longer and could become an ace-like starter the Astros are looking for.
Alex Bregman
Bregman took a bit of a step back in the month of June. In 25 games, he hit .215 with a .682 OPS. However, there are two areas that could show that he is on the verge of a monster month.
Breaking out?
First, Bregman is seeing the ball remarkably well. Yes, he has not made contact very well, but he has shown an increased amount of patience at the plate. With a .340 on-base percentage, tying April for the highest of the year for him, he walked 14 times and struck out 11 times. To put that into perspective, he walked only 14 times in the 51 games in April and May compared to his 14 walks in the 25 games in the month of June.
Second is the amount of success he has had with runners in scoring position. In 65 at bats, Bregman is hitting .292 with a .798 OPS with RISP, scoring himself 19 times and driving in 19 RBIs. With the increased patience at the plate, his strikeout numbers may decrease a bit. He has struck out 15 times with RISP in 65 at bats.
Bregman has embraced the role of being a table setter at the bottom of the lineup. Now, with that patience at the plate, that is another aspect of his game that will make him a very good offensive force in this league.
The injured pitchers
The Astros have had a depth problem at starting pitcher for the past month. At one point, four of their five starters were all on the disabled list at once, giving the opportunity for a pitcher like Peacock, Joe Musgrove, and Mike Fiers to get opportunities. However, with Lance McCullers already back in the rotation, the Astros are close to having their rotation back to normal.
Right-hander Charlie Morton has been a solid No. 3 starter for the Astros. In 10 starts, he has a 4.06 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .251 batting average against. Using the ground ball to his advantage, Morton has a ground ball percentage of 51.3 percent so far this season. His strikeout percentage is very high as well, striking out 25.8 percent of batters faced. Going on the 10-day DL with a right lat strain, Morton could return to the Astros rotation, according to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle, as soon as July 2nd.
Not quite as fast.
Right-hander Collin McHugh has not made a start at the major league level this season. Struggling with an elbow injury in spring training, he was sent on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Fresno early in the season. He then reaggravated the injury, causing him to miss the entire season up to this point. The Astros will be sending McHigh on a rehab assignment to Double-A Corpus Christi on June 30th.
Left-handed ace Dallas Keuchel has been struggling with a neck injury. He started the season off strong with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP through 11 starts. Now, it seems as though Keuchel will not come back until after the All-Star break.
Next: Houston Astros: Mark DeRosa proposes another deal
All three of these pitchers have been integral to the Astros success in years past. With all three healthy, it may solve the issue of starting pitching depth.
***Stats provided by Baseball Reference, MLB.com, and FanGraphs***