Houston Astros: A Snapshot of the 2017 AL West competition

A look at the Houston Astros’ divisional foes in 2017.

As 2016 comes to an end, Houston sports fans are working to get to the holidays. They will watch a mediocre Texans team spin its wheels and a Rockets team that is much improved and definitely a treat to watch. However, there will no doubt be a buzz around the city about the Houston Astros. The new year could see the Houston Astros making a run for not just an AL West crown, but a world championship.

The recent plethora of additions to the Astros roster has bolstered the fan base and has given many baseball experts reason to believe that the ball club from Houston will be a legitimate title contender in 2017. But let us not just sit and drool at the new toys we have recently acquired. We should keep an eye on our closest enemies with whom the Astros will match up against 76 times next season.

The Houston Astros need to win the AL West this year, they must beat the Rangers!

Texas Rangers (+650 odds to win AL Pennant – via oddsshark.com)

Key additions: SP Andrew Cashner

Key departures: DH Carlos Beltran, OF Ian Desmond, 1B Mitch Moreland

What happened in 2016.

While letting Desmond go may seem foolish to some. The price tag he was commanding and received was very steep. Desmond opened the season on a tear, batting .322 in the first half of the season. He then cooled off considerably with a .237 second half average. His defense in the outfield was less than stellar resulting in -0.1 dWAR rating.

So what did the Rangers do instead? They re-signed Carlos Gomez to a one-year deal. Gomez hit considerably better with the Rangers than with Houston. He hit nearly 70 points higher after being picked up by Texas off waivers. It is not certain whether he will play LF or CF.

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It will be interesting to see how Gomez responds to expectations this year. There will definitely be more placed on him this year, as opposed to the Rangers taking a chance on him last season. The Astros put expectations on him, and well, that was a big mistake.

The rest of the Rangers lineup will feature familiar foes like Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, and Elvis Andrus. It will also lean upon last year’s addition Jonathan Lucroy and young talent of Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo to keep their lineup as one of the best in the league.

The Rangers starting pitching had one of the highest RA (Runs Allowed) averages of all the AL teams, trailing only Minnesota and Oakland. So how did they win the division? They had an insane amount of late inning (clutch stat) wins which also saw their bullpen account for 30 Lsv (losses saved).

What about 2017?

As of now their rotation consists of Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, Cashner, Martin Perez, and A.J. Griffin. Hamels should provide another stellar year, though he faltered in September. Darvish, when healthy, can be one of the best in the game. But his health definitely is a question mark.  Cashner, Perez, and Griffin are an average trio in the backend of the rotation. However, beyond the top five pitchers, the organization lacks depth.

The bullpen will remain the relatively the same as last year, which was lights out at times but also had some very ugly inconsistencies. Sam Dyson looks to remain the closer, but at first signs of struggles, there will be clamoring for Matt Bush to take over that role.

If the Rangers are to continue their AL West reign, they will need to get the expected production from an offense that excelled in situational hitting last year. They must also continue to beat Houston and Seattle. The Rangers went a combined 27-11 against those two clubs in 2016.

Seattle Mariners (+1000 to win AL Pennant)

Key Additions: SS Jean Segura, C Carlos Ruiz, IF Danny Valencia, RP Marc Rzepczynski, OF Mitch Haniger

Key Departures: SS Ketel Marte, SP Taijuan Walker

The M’s and their GM Jerry DiPoto have had another busy offseason. The biggest splash was sending Marte and Walker to Arizona in exchange for Segura, Haniger, and LHP Zac Curtis.

What happened in 2016.

It will be interesting to see how this trade plays out, as Walker looks to be a potential ace, and Haniger, who was Arizona’s Minor League POY in 2016 could blossom into a major contributor this season. Dipoto on Haniger “There’s not much left for him to do in the Minor Leagues. You can’t have a better year than he just experienced.” Segura, who will bat leadoff, will be an enormous offensive upgrade from Marte. Defensively, they should be a wash.

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• Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
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• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

The lineup will still feature one of the best power 3-4-5 trios in the big leagues with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. They also added Ruiz and Valencia, which gives them some good offensive depth.

Their pitching staff as a whole last season was a bit above average. Losing Walker will hurt, and Seattle could turn to LHP Ariel Miranda to step up in the rotation this year. He was acquired last year from Baltimore in exchange for Wade Miley and pitched well for the Mariners. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma will once again be asked to lead this pitching staff.

What about 2017?

If the Mariners intend to contend this year, and not fade off in September, they will need to address their starting pitching. Either getting another front-end starter or another middle-rotation piece to add depth to their very shallow pool of starters.

Los Angeles Angels (+5500 to win AL Pennant)

Key Additions: OF Cameron Maybin, P Jesse Chavez, SS Danny Espinosa

Key Departures: Unsigned FA’s SP C.J. Wilson, SP Jered Weaver, C Geovany Soto

What happened in 2016.

The Angels are picked dead last in the AL West by the oddsmakers. However, their payroll is four times that of Oakland. You can attribute a good chunk of that to the 36-year-old slugger Albert Pujols who is set to make $26 million this year. He still has five years left on his $240 million contract, ouch.

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• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

The Angels were once in the business of trying to buy a World Championship, and they are still paying for that failed plan. They now look to be stuck between trying to compete and rebuilding but haven’t quite made a decision on the route they want to take. If the Angels are at the bottom of the division as projected, look for them to try to shop Mike Trout. Trout would no doubt command several top prospects from a farm system. But, he might be untradeable because of his overall value.

Overall the Halo’s offense was average. They only hit 156 home runs, but that is largely in part to playing half of their season in the pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. They hit for a team average of .260 and nearly all their other stats were around league average. Their lineup projects to be decent 1-6, but the bottom third could be putrid. Trout and Pujols, along with Kole Calhoun, C.J. Cron, and Yunel Escobar will be asked to carry this offense.

LA’s pitching as a whole last year was below average. They had the highest FIP in the AL at 4.62. They also had the second lowest Quality Start percentage in the AL at 40%, second to only Minnesota.

What about 2017?

The Angels lost their ace Garrett Richards and another promising starter Andrew Heaney early last season. This contributed to a lot of their pitching struggles. Richards is set to be back, but Heaney will miss 2017 recovering from a Tommy John surgery. So for this season, LA will look to have Richards as their opening day starter. He would be followed by Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs, and Ricky Nolasco. Then likely recently acquired Chavez to round out the staff.

There will likely need to change at closer this year for the Halo’s. Their save percentage was terrible at a mere 58% in 2016. Veteran closer Huston Street, had a terrible season last year while he was dealing with a knee injury. He will compete with Andrew Bailey and Cam Bedrosian for the job in the spring.

Los Angeles will need the backend of their rotation to step up and provide better starts this year. Their offense is possibly the worst in the division and will need to be kept in games by the pitching staff. Trout has a full no-trade clause in his contract. But look for this to be his last year in Anaheim, as he would likely waive it to play for a contender.

Houston Astros: (+500 to win AL Pennant)

Key Additions: DH Carlos Beltran, OF Josh Reddick, OF Nori Aoki, C Brian McCann, SP Charlie Morton

Key Departures: C Jason Castro, 3B Luis Valbuena, SP Doug Fister, OF Colby Rasmus

What happened in 2016.

The Astros have been one of the busiest teams this offseason, signing some noted veterans to their lineup that was the youngest in the league last year. The Astro lineup will now feature George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Yulieski Gurriel, and the fore-mentioned arrivals. This has Houston slotted to have one of the best all-around lineups in baseball.

The consensus is that for this club to achieve the expectation of competing for a world series, the pitching staff will need to improve. Dallas Keuchel took a significant step back from last season. Lance McCullers was injury ridden for the bookends of the season, and Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, and a combination of other starters could not provide enough consistency to get the club into the playoffs.

What about 2017?

Adding Morton to the staff, in replacement of Fister, was a move made in hopes that Morton can continue to get a lot of ground balls.  In Minute Maid Park, this is a necessity, especially with the CF fence moving in this year, RIP Tal’s Hill.

Consistency was a major issue in the bullpen as well.  Houston rotated through three closers, Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, and Ken Giles.  Giles ended the season relatively well, and is expected to assume the role he was acquired to handle.

If the Astros are to make a serious contention for a world championship, they will likely need to acquire a front end-starter.  This will come at a high price, but luckily for the Astros, multiple years of 100+ loss seasons has stocked the farm system well.

STILL ON THE MARKET….

Edwin Encarnacion was rumored to be close to signing with the Houston Astros. That rumor fizzled and he is now being talked about in the Texas Ranger circle. This would be an expensive signing for a player on the downside of the age pendulum, but there is a hole at first base since Prince Fielder‘s retirement and Moreland’s departure. As of now Jurickson Profar is slotted to play first. If Texas wants to match Houston’s lineup, this would be a huge acquisition.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

• Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
• Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
• Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
• Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

Chris Carter is now a free agent. He hit 41 home runs for Milwaukee last year, and for any team looking for some pop, and strikeouts, he could be had for relatively cheap. And wouldn’t the Rangers like to have another ex-Astro on their roster?  It’s possible.

Ivan Nova is one of the best free agent pitchers on the market, which will likely end up with him being over paid.  But with pitching being a weak point in this division, Nova could be a prospect of Seattle.  Jason Hammel and Tyson Ross are even better options, but will likely come with a higher price tag.  Will Texas or Houston make a play for one of those players?  Houston has said to be done with all major signings, but not much has been said at all from the Rangers camp.

AND THE AL WEST WINNER IS……

At this time, it is safe to assume that Oakland and Los Angeles will not be in contention for the division.  They have to many holes, and the rest of the division has been making moves to improve. Since none of the remaining three teams have a stellar pitching staff, I think the teams must be ranked by offensive expectations.  So here are your 2017 AL West standings predictions:

1.  Houston Astros     96-66
2. Texas Rangers        91-71
3. Seattle Mariners    86-76
4. Oakland Athletics   69-93
5. Los Angeles Angels  65-97

Next: What to expect from Jose Altuve in 2017.

****Stats from Baseball-Reference.com, Salary information per Spotrac and Odds information from oddshark.com***