Astros Played the Trade Deadline Perfectly

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Aug 2, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (59) pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning at Minute Maid Park. Toronto Blue Jays won 2 to 1. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

Another year, another trade deadline. There was no Carlos Gomez/Brett Phillips swap for fans to debate for an eternity. Nary a Ben Zobrist/Aubrey Huff disaster. Nor was there a Scott Kazmir rental, and thus, no hometown Daniel Mengden shipped away to a division rival. The criticism will soar from both sides, but the Astros were very wise not to make a huge splash at the trade deadline.

A SELLER’S MARKET FOR THE AGES

Brian Cashman converted a handful of prospects and moral indifference into Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford, and old friend Adam Warren. That’s not too shabby of a haul for a rental reliever with substantial off-the-field issues. A.J. Preller, in an astounding change of fortune, managed to convert Yonder Alonzo and Marc Rzepczynski into Anderson Espinoza, one of the most electric young arms in baseball, via Drew Pomeranz.

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And those were done days before August 1^st.

Jeff Luhnow and the boys immediately recognized an appallingly inflated market. They sat back and watched as other teams paid gruesome prices for the players on their wish list. It’s a tough position for them to be in. Trade away the future for short-term assets? Go all-in on a Chris Sale blockbuster? Or, even, as a contending team, act as sellers to replenish the farm? Every one of these scenarios was discussed.

Luhnow, hardly one to abide by any traditional approach, actually traded away two MLB level relievers for two low-level prospects. That was his grand response to the hated division rival Texas Rangers not only acquiring one of our targets in Carlos Beltran but also swooping in on Jonathan Lucroy. From an outsider’s perspective, that’s the textbook definition of “selling” at the trade deadline.

From an Astros fan’s perspective, that’s Luhnow at his best. Remember when he plucked Francis Martes and David Paulino for next to nothing? Identifying breakout players at the lower levels is Luhnow’s admitted specialty. Scott Feldman was unhappy about his demotion to the bullpen and is a free agent at the end of the season. Guadalupe Chavez is a very pleasant surprise return.

As is Yordan Alvarez. Josh Fields, a 30-years-old reliever with years of team control on his contract, has struggled mightily in Triple-A after a solid 2015 campaign. But the rise of Joseph Musgrove and James Hoyt (more on them later) have ultimately made him expendable. He fetched an intriguing 1B/OF prospect from the Dodgers.

Next: Almost The Return of Beltran

THE CARLOS BELTRAN CONUNDRUM

At first, we needed to warm up to the Carlos Beltran rumors. For those who need a quick refresher:

The Astros acquired Beltran at the deadline in 2004. He finished the season two home runs shy from joining the 40-40 club and electrified the city of Houston with eight postseason home runs, a club record. After the Astros had fallen to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS, Beltran, and the Astros expressed mutual interest in re-signing, but he ended up signing a monstrous deal with the New York Mets.

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The next year, Astros fans may recall, resulted in the club’s first World Series appearance, and seemingly every Astros fan wondered how that season would have ended if Beltran (who posted substantially lower numbers that year) patrolled left field instead of Chris Burke. You could write a college thesis on how Beltran signing with the Mets created an unprecedented domino effect that eventually led to the Luhnow-era Astros. (Believe me, I have.)

Needless to say, the idea of renting Carlos Beltran again 12 years later was not exactly the most tempting dish at the trade deadline cafeteria. But when you consider Rasmus and Marisnick’s slumps at the plate, Beltran’s 22 home runs and .304 average suddenly don’t sound so bad. Beltran’s veteran presence on the third-youngest team in baseball would be incalculably valuable, especially with his playoff experience and thirst for his first ring at 39-years-old.

Joke’s on everyone: after all of these years of going hoarse from booing Beltran at Astros games, restaurants, airports, and gas stations, he could be the anchor that brings the Astros their first championship. It would all come full circle. This suddenly doesn’t sound so bad.

GM Jon Daniels, however, also saw that fit and nabbed Beltran. And just like that, Astros folklore briefly re-accepted Beltran as the hero they needed, only to watch him flutter away out of their grasp to the worst possible destination.

But if you ask me (disclaimer: I am not and have never been a Major League Baseball general manager), the Rangers paid a steep price for a few months of Beltran. The Rangers selected Dillon Tate with the fourth pick overall in the 2015 draft. For those keeping score at home, that’s two spots behind Alex Bregman (more on him shortly) and one spot ahead of Kyle Tucker. And that’s not ALL the Rangers gave up, as they also shipped two interesting arms in Nick Green and Erik Swanson.

I suddenly don’t feel too badly about missing out on 39-year-old Beltran.

Next: Did We Really Need Lucroy?

LUCROY WOULD HAVE BEEN GREAT, BUT NOT FOR THAT PRICE

Apr 8, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chase Anderson (57) talks to catcher Jonathan Lucroy (20) after getting Houston Astros left fielder Colby Rasmus (not pictured) to foul out to Lucroy in the fifth inning at Miller Park. Anderson pitched five scoreless innings to pick up the win as the Brewers beat the Astros 6-4. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

There’s not a team in the league that would say no to a catcher hitting .299/.359/.482 with 13 home runs. Depending on who you ask, Lucroy’s ability behind the plate is just as valuable as his bat, as StatCorner ranks him the eighth-best pitch-framing catcher (Jason Castro is fourth-best) in the MLB.

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When Gattis is catching, for comparison, he splits at .295/.333/.716 with 11 home runs. Castro, as previously noted, is far more reputable with his glove than his bat, but he splits at .214/.321/.376. Lucroy is a far more patient hitter at a position that does not come with lofty offensive expectations.

But given the price paid by Texas, the Astros absolutely had to hold back. Regardless of your source, Lewis Brinson and Luis Ortiz topped Rangers prospects lists behind the obvious Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara. Take two of the Astros’ top five prospects and try and figure out who you’d like to give away for a year and a half of Lucroy.

Next: Why Trade When You Have the Third Best Farm System

INTERNAL UPGRADES

Aug 1, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) throws out a runner at first base during the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

If you frequent this site, Astros broadcasts, Twitter, the internet, any coffee shop in America, any watercooler at any office, or any dating app, you are aware of a Major League Baseball infielder by the name of Alex Bregman. Chances are, you’ve heard of his fellow Fresno Grizzly A.J. Reed as well. Maybe your interest in Fresno Grizzlies players extends to the pitching staff, where you are also well aware of gentlemen by the names of Musgrove and Hoyt.

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Bregman, not unlike every hyped Astros prospect in the last three years, has struggled a bit since his debut. His lone hit came on a bloop single despite missing a game-altering grand slam by maybe two feet a few nights before. His swings look good, but he’s simply missing the ball. He’s only 22 (of note, as that’s older than Carlos Correa) and has proved all that he can prove in Triple A. He just needs more exposure to MLB pitching, and once he gets adjusted, he’ll be a tremendous asset for the club going forward.

The same applies to Reed. There’s no doubt in his bat, as further enforced by his .436 average with four home runs in 11 games since his demotion. Reed’s value as a patient left-handed hitter with incredible power cannot be overstated, especially if he gets it going in August.

Let’s not forget Yulieski Gourriel, the Cuban icon who is making a cross-continental tour of the Astros’ minor league system before his expected August debut. August Fagerstrom said it perfectly over at FanGraphs: “the Houston Astros just acquired a premium talent near the trade deadline, and they didn’t have to give up any talent of their own, present or future, to do so. Within the month, a Cuban legend will take over at the hot corner for Houston, and they figure they’ll immediately become a better team because of it.”

Hoyt may not be the lefty reliever that Astros fans clamored Luhnow to acquire, but he has demonstrated his ability to get batters out on either side of the plate. In 50 IP, he has 84 strikeouts and 28 saves. Hoyt stands to make an excellent bullpen even stronger.

I wrote about Musgrove last December. While his eye-popping peripherals have come back down to earth a bit during his 2016 campaign, he has maintained his excellent command. He has 87 strikeouts to 10 walks in 16 games across Corpus Christi and Fresno and has never walked more than two batters in a single game. He was, well, pretty spectacular last night.

So, the Astros can immediately upgrade LF, 1B/DH, their starting rotation, and their bullpen. All of their weak spots without giving up prospects. But that’s if these players can perform at the next level, which is the fundamental issue.

Next: Did We Lose the AL West By Not Adding

WHY DID IT HAVE TO BE THE RANGERS?

Aug 2, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

There’s no question that Lucroy and Beltran bring a substantial upgrade to an already-formidable Rangers offense. It is interesting to note, however, that the Rangers did very little to improve their pitching staff. Astros Twitter already had their fun when they traded for our old friend Lucas Harrell to boost their rotation woes.

Dario Alvarez, who came over with Harrell, has not seen a lot of big league action but figures to improve the Rangers bullpen. So does Jeremy Jeffress, an excellent righty with years of big league success and has years of team control remaining.

But after Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish, the Rangers’ rotation gets very shaky. And as Astros fans struggle to fall asleep last night fearing what will happen with McCullers’ elbow, they can rest easy knowing that Musgrove is here to stay.

SAY IT WITH ME: WE WILL BE FINE

McCullers, Luke Gregerson, and Luis Valbuena are hurt. Carlos Gomez, Reed, Jason Castro, Bregman, and Colby Rasmus are slumping. Musgrove, Hoyt, and Gourriel are on the way. A return to form and a handful of new faces will equip the Astros to make a run at the newly-improved Rangers.

Next: Astros Roundup: McCullers’ Injury, Reed and Hoyt Up

As rough as it was to watch Beltran, Jeffress and Lucroy get traded to the Rangers without any corresponding big move from the Astros, just remember that it doesn’t guarantee success. Just ask the Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals about last year.

***Stats from Baseball-Reference***

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Astros Played the Trade Deadline Perfectly

The Houston Astros Did Not Obtain a Player Via Trade for 2016, But That Could Be a Good Thing.

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