Astros in Fantasy: First Half Recap

Jul 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) is carried by teammates after hitting a walk off RBI single during the tenth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. The Astros defeated the Athletics 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) is carried by teammates after hitting a walk off RBI single during the tenth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. The Astros defeated the Athletics 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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A Look at Fantasy Baseball Through the Lens’ of an Astros Fan

Jul 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Jose Altuve (27) watches from the dugout during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Jose Altuve (27) watches from the dugout during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

With the first half of the regular season over, the Astros have had some solid fantasy contributors for fantasy owners to keep in their lineup. We will go over those first half MVPs and then look to the second half to see who will break out for the Astros in their quest for the American League West title. Before their weekend series at Seattle, a regular Astros in Fantasy article will be posted for Week 15.

MVP Hitter:

Jose Altuve– 119/349 H/AB, 67 R, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 23 SB,  .341 BA

Not only has Altuve been the best hitter on this Astros team, but also arguably he has been in all of baseball. Altuve is in the top five in seven of the 16 major hitting categories in the American League and is the leader in batting average, at .341, hits, with 119, and games played at 89.

Altuve has been a fixture at the top of the lineup for A.J. Hinch for the entire season. The reason why Altuve is so deadly to opposing pitchers near the top of the order is that he can hurt you in more ways than one.

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For a second baseman near the top of the lineup, it is expected that he get on base. With his .341 batting average, Altuve posts a .413 on-base percentage, which is fourth in the AL. Once he gets on base, Altuve is a threat on the base paths. He is second in the American League with 23 steals in 26 attempts and has come around to score 67 times, which is fifth in the American League.

However, despite his size, Altuve has been a power threat. Ranked 11th in the AL with a .542 slugging percentage, he has 40 extra base hits, including 14 long balls and 24 doubles. Batting third in this lineup, Altuve also has had many opportunities to drive in runners. He has 51 RBIs this season and is hitting .307 with a .927 OPS with runners in scoring position.

All of this is to say that the Astros have one of the most complete players in the game today batting third in their lineup. Fantasy owners should be very pleased with his offensive production so far in 2016.

Altuve has put up AL MVP-like numbers in the first half of this season. If the Astros want to make a run at the AL West title, he needs to continue to be that offensive force. If this happens, he will continue to rack up stats for your fantasy team and maybe earn some MVP votes at the end of the season.

Next: MVP Pitcher

MVP Pitcher:

Jul 7, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) reacts after walking a hitter during the second inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 7, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Doug Fister (58) reacts after walking a hitter during the second inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Doug Fister– 106.1 IP, 96 H, 42 ER, 36 BB, 66 K, 8 W, 3.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

No one knew what to expect when the Fister signing became a done deal this offseason. He was coming into 2016 looking to rebound after a tough 2015 with the Washington Nationals.

So far in 2016, Fister has rebounded quite nicely. In his 17 starts this season, Fister leads the Astros in wins, with eight, ERA, at 3.55, and WHIP, at 1.24.

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His 2016 did not start promising, though. In his first two starts this season, Fister gave up nine earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched. However, Fister then gave up three earned runs or fewer in his next twelve starts to lower his ERA to 3.21.

So, what was his secret to coming back strong in 2016? It’s pitching the same way that Fister always has. With a two-seam fastball that he throws 46.2% of the time, Fister lives and dies by the ground ball with a 48.5% ground ball rate this year.

He also shows that he doesn’t have to strike many batters out to be successful. Averaging only 5.59 strikeouts per nine innings, Fister only strikes out batters 15% of the time.

That really has to do with his stuff. Averaging mid-eighties on his fastball, Fister does not blow anyone away. However, he has been very successful against right-handed batters. With a 2.13 ERA against, Fister has a 0.98 WHIP and .200 batting average against them.

Although many fantasy owners have overlooked Fister this year, he has proved to be a solid starter for the Astros. Although he does not strike many batters out or may not have the best WHIP, Fister will get you wins. He has been one of the most underrated pitchers in the AL this year.

Next: Now on to the Second Half

Second Half Breakout Hitter:

Jul 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) hits a single during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 10, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) hits a single during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Carlos Correa (Owned in 99.2% of ESPN Fantasy leagues)

Correa knows what baseball pundits talk about when they talk about the “sophomore slump.” That is not to say that he has been bad, though. He has just been underwhelming. In his 85 games this season, Correa has a .260 average with a .812 OPS. He also has 34 extra base hits, including 14 home runs, with 55 RBIs and 45 runs scored.

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The problem in 2016 has been his strikeout numbers. With a 22.3% strikeout rate, he has 84 strikeouts this season, already eclipsing his 78 last season. After being looked over in regards to the AL All-Star team, Correa has something to prove in the second half of this season. There are reasons to believe he will do that.

First, he has a history of producing well in the second half. Yes, he did not play much in the first half of the season last year. However, that is when he started to come into his own. In his 67 games, he hit .281 with a .875 OPS. He also hit 15 home runs and drove in 49.

Second, he will most likely continue to hit fourth in the Astros lineup. After Hinch had moved Correa to hit behind Altuve, his bat seemed to get hot very quickly. In his 23 games in the cleanup role, Correa has a .281 average with a .948 OPS. He also has six home runs in only 89 at bats.

After struggling so far in the month of July, with a .200 average and a .581 OPS, this All-Star break is well needed for Correa. He will have to work hard to supplant Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts as the best shortstop in the AL for 2016.

Correa will be an important piece if the Astros want to make the playoffs. Look for Correa to live up to his expectations in the second half.

Next: Second Half Breakout Pitcher

Second Half Breakout Pitcher:

Jul 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Collin McHugh (31) reacts after getting a strikeout during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 3, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Collin McHugh (31) reacts after getting a strikeout during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Collin McHugh (Owned in 37.1% of ESPN Fantasy leagues)

McHugh has gone through this before. After a rough first half of the season, fantasy owners give up on McHugh because of his high ERA and WHIP. However, McHugh is known as a second half pitcher.

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So far in 2016, McHugh is having an eerily similar year to 2015. In his 18 starts, he is 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA. At this time in 2015, McHugh had a 9-5 record with a 4.50 ERA. What did he do last year in the second half? In his 14 starts after the All-Star break, McHugh went 10-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

The one thing that may affect his second half is his WHIP in 2016. McHugh has had more trouble this season with getting runners on base, with a 1.46 WHIP. Per nine innings, he has given up, on average, 10.5 hits and 2.6 walks. However, McHugh is still very good at leaving runners on base. This season, he leaves runners on base 73.6% of the time, which is only 0.7% less from last season.

Part of the reason for his success here is his strikeout ability. With a strikeout percentage up 1.3% from last season, McHugh has 94 strikeouts in 119 innings in 2016.

Next: Astros: Comparing Carlos Correa to the Best Seasons of Houston SS

As a second half pitcher, McHugh needs to be his regular self for the Astros to be successful. Fantasy owners will be pleased with his production if he puts up similar numbers to his second halves in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

***Stats provided by MLB.com, Baseball Reference, and FanGraphs***

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