Astros: Lengthening the Lineup, The Eyeball Test

What do you see when you watch the lineup of the Houston Astros night after night?

We can look up any number of statistics which measure a certain amount of progress, but that is not my purpose here. I want to share with you some of my observations and challenge you to think about what you are seeing without depending on a lot of statistical data.

A frequently heard complaint about the lineup of the Houston Astros earlier in the season was the need to “lengthen the lineup.” With Jose Altuve batting leadoff, George Springer batting second, and Carlos Correa third, people said the team had their only consistent hitters bunched together with six batters in between.

As A.J. Hinch began to look for ways to jump-start the team’s offense, he first moved Springer to the leadoff slot, flip-flopping with Altuve. In my view, that either started or coincided with the trend upward for success for the team.

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Ok, I said I wasn’t going to give you stats, but I’ll make this one exception because I think it is a great point of reference. Since Springer was moved to the leadoff slot on May 24th, the Houston Astros are 29-11. The question is . . . Why? Has the lineup indeed been lengthened or is this just a coincidence? I’ll be glad to give you my view, and I invite yours in the comments.

When Altuve was moved to the three-hole, with Springer remaining in the leadoff slot, that moved Correa to clean up. Already, you’ve lengthened your lineup by one slot. In the two-hole you’ve had, most commonly, Marwin Gonzalez or Luis Valbuena. Gonzalez is a good bat-handler, while Valbuena is more of a power threat. For both, hitting in front of one of the top hitters in all of baseball in Altuve means they are going to get better pitches to hit. When Springer is on base as a threat to steal, that means more fastballs for whoever is hitting second.

Correa struggled early but has seemed to put it together in the cleanup slot. Why? In my view, Correa is better with more on the line, plus, my eyeball test tells me that he seems much more relaxed at the plate since the end of May.

Colby Rasmus most frequently hits in the five-hole against right-handed pitching. If I were going to lean on stats, I would tell you that, in spite of his tendency to be streaky, that his average is still higher than last year, and he seems to be respected more like a real power threat around the league. However, I’m not going to rely on stats (ok, I’m rolling my own eyes at myself on that one).

The eyeball test tells me that the change with the next-most impact has been the increased defensive employment of Evan Gattis. What?? I’ve heard numerous interviews with Gattis, and he has made it clear that he does not want to be a full-time DH. He does not necessarily want to catch every day, but would like to play in the field several days a week.