Houston Astros: How To Fix the Hole in the Bottom of the Lineup
The core pieces for the supposed Houston Astros dynasty are beginning to arrive.
With big names at the top of the lineup, such as Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Jose Altuve, the rest of the lineup should be able to feed off of the offensive potential that the Houston “Big Three” has. However, that does not seem to be the case. What general manager Jeff Luhnow has struggled with in his tenure with the Astros is with finding a supporting cast around these core players to build a complete offense. Other than Colby Rasmus, Luhnow has struck out on that front. So what do the Astros need to start building a complete offense? They need to start with shaping a table-setter for this offense.
The only prerequisite for a table-setter is the ability to get on base. This can be achieved through patience with walks or a good contact bat. A high average guy with a high on-base percentage that is reliable to be on base for when the big bats come up. A good example of these type of bats is at the top and bottom of the lineup for the Seattle Mariners. Against the Astros on Thursday, the combination of Norichika Aoki, Seth Smith, Ketel Marte, and Leonys Martin recorded a combined seven hits in 15 at-bats with six runs, 2 RBIs, and three walks. These players, even though they may not have the name and staying power of a Robinson Cano or Nelson Cruz, elongate and deepen their offense. This is what the Astros offense is lacking.
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Fans and members of the national media may argue that the Astros already have that piece in All-Star second baseman Altuve. However, his start to 2016 has made him so much more than just a table-setter.
Through 29 games, Altuve either shares the AL lead or holds it outright in doubles, with 14, home runs, with 9, stolen bases, with 10, and OPS in which he has a major league leading 1.104.
The Astros have an unusual situation with the so-called heart of their batting order as their first three hitters in the starting lineup. That really shows the gaping hole in offensive production from the four spot on in this lineup, with 4 or 5 guys that are low average, high power, and even higher strikeout guys. The Astros need someone who can get on base at the back end of the starting lineup to set up more offensive for the first three guys in Altuve, Springer, and Correa.
So what could the Astros do about it? Here are three candidates that could, in the future, be the table-setters at the back end of this starting lineup.
Next: Candidate #1
Candidate #1
White has been two types of hitters throughout his professional career. In the minors, he was the table-setter that the Astros were looking for.
In 2015 with Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Fresno, White hit .325 with a .442 on-base percentage and a .496 slugging percentage. He also recorded 40 extra base hits including 14 home runs and drove in 99 RBIs while scoring himself 70 times.
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However, in his first 27 games on the major league squad, White is only hitting .222 with an on-base percentage of .287.
The reason why this occurred is all about transition. The shift for major league pitchers against White was tough when he won AL Player of the Week in the first week of the season, hitting .556 with three home runs, 9 RBI, and three runs scored in that span. Currently, it’s the transition for White to adjust to major league pitching. In his last 15 games, White has five hits in 52 at bats with 12 strikeouts. Also, a lot of his hits are not falling in as they were in the minor leagues. Compared to a BABIP of .313 and .412 between Double-A and Triple-A respectively in 2015, White only has a BABIP of .238 in 2016.
White’s minor league numbers would be perfect for the role of the table-setter in this offense. It does take time though for a bat to transition into the major leagues. Since the Astros have high expectations this season, it’s kind of hard to watch a player at this level going through growing pains offensively. Once he finds a way to be more patient at the plate and raise his 7.9% walk rate, he will be a perfect fit in this role.
Next: Candidate #2
Candidate #2
Moran is in a very similar situation to Tyler White. Only his transition is between Double-A and Triple-A pitching.
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As I wrote about in my Fresno Player Spotlight this week, Moran has shown promise with his contact bat. So far in 2016, he has an average of .299 with an on-base percentage on .354 and a slugging percentage of .379.
However, his strikeout totals would not transfer well to the major leagues with already striking out 25% of the time compared to only a 7.6% walk rate.
His bat would be perfect because of the need the Astros have currently. However, his bat is not developed enough to be able to get on base at a consistent clip for this ball club, and he doesn’t have the offensive upside through a power bat to deserve the call up yet.
Next: Candidate #3
Candidate #3
Kemp is a high average guy that has upside both in the field, in his ability to play the outfield and second base, and on the base paths.
Through 24 games at Fresno this season, Kemp is hitting .294 with an OPS of .735. His two extra base hits are triples, and the rest are singles. He has also scored nine times and has driven in 7.
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He has an ability to get on base with his speed. He has three stolen bases in six attempts so far this season and can get on base with a BABIP of .359.
However, just like the rest of the hitters in the Astros system, Kemp has a bit of trouble with the strikeouts. He has a 17.7% strikeout rate. His walk rate is a bit better than most though at 12.5%, which is expected at the top of any lineup.
Kemp would need time to develop in the major leagues, not only because of his bat but because of his transition to the outfield. Because Jose Altuve is taking hold of that starting spot at second base, Kemp has transitioned to playing center field for the Fresno Grizzlies. He may not be ready to take on the vast center field at Minute Maid Park yet, but he certainly has the speed to do so.
With a utility and speed aspect to his game to go along with a contact type of bat, Kemp would be a great addition to the bottom end of the major league starting lineup.
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These three players are going to take the time to develop, but their offensive presence at the end of the Astros lineup make it more well rounded.
***Stats fro Baseball-Reference***