Houston Astros: Silver Boot Preview

Round One of Many Matchups Between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers Begins Tonight

The Houston Astros won their first series of 2016 against the Detroit Tigers who came into town sporting the AL’s best team batting average. After taking two games out of three behind the solid pitching of Dallas Keuchel and the bullpen, and George Springer and Jose Altuve delivering at the plate, the Astros make the short trip north to Arlington to challenge the rival Texas Rangers.

The Astros received a Cy Young Award-caliber performance from Keuchel, who pitched eight scoreless innings and only allowed five hits in game one. Luke Gregerson converted both save opportunities of the series in three up-three down fashion. The bullpen only allowed one run the entire series, and Ken Giles looked like his old self, working two scoreless frames and striking out three. Offensively, Springer batted .500 for the series, belting two home runs and bursting out of his early season slump. Altuve and Tyler White also went deep for the Astros and are now tied for the club lead in home runs with four each.  Carlos Correa and Carlos Gomez were both given a day of rest from manager A.J. Hinch on Sunday.

The Rangers are coming off of a comeback win from Saturday night.  After splitting the first two games of a four-game set versus Baltimore, the Rangers six-run seventh inning put them over the .500 mark on the year at 7-6. The final game slotted for Sunday was rained out.  Texas scored 19 runs in three games against the Orioles and appear to be red-hot offensively entering this series with the Astros. The Rangers currently lead the American League in runs scored with 61 in 13 games.

The Rangers also lead the league in home runs allowed giving up 22 on the year already, and the Astros are close behind with 20 home runs allowed. The winner of this series may be the team whose pitching staff can keep the ball in play. Conversely, the Astros have hit 19 home runs, while the Rangers have only eight long balls on the year.

Next: Game 1 Prediction

GAME 1 – Scott Feldman (0-1, 3.48) vs. Derek Holland (1-0, 2.31)

Scott Feldman will face his former team for the 10th time.  Feldman holds a 3-4 career record against the Rangers and has a lifetime ERA of 4.27 in Arlington. Both of his starts this year have resulted in losses for Houston. However, Feldman pitched well in his last start against the Royals, going 6.1 innings and giving up two runs, both unearned. Feldman did commit an error in that game that led to the runs being scored, and that, coupled with little run support, left him still in search of his first 2016 victory.

One step to him earning that win may be to get more ground balls than in his first two starts. A sinker-baller by trade, Feldman has always been a ground ball pitcher. So far this year, he has produced more fly balls than grounders, which could prove dangerous in the jet-streams of Globe Life Park.

Holland has started off 2016 decently, with his most recent outing resulting in a win. He will face a tough task on Tuesday night as the Astros have always fared well against him. Current Astros batters are hitting .390 collectively versus Holland, and Carlos Correa has four hits in six at-bats with two of those hits being home runs. For most of the hitters it is a relatively small sample size, but of all the Rangers pitchers, Holland has by far had the most trouble with the Houston lineup.

An interesting note on Holland, out of his 140 career starts, he has received run support of six or more runs a total of 59 games. So, 42% of the games he pitches, the Rangers offense usually gives him ample run support. However, he rarely has won games in which he gets 0-2 run support, and has just over a .500 winning percentage in games where he gets 3-5 run support. Therefore, if Feldman can hold the Rangers offense to four runs or less, the Astros have a pretty good shot of beating Holland and the Rangers.

Prediction: Astros 6 – Rangers 4

Next: Game 2 Prediction

GAME 2 – Doug Fister (1-1, 7.59) vs Cole Hamels (2-0, 2.95)

This will be an important start for Fister. With Lance McCullers set to come back very soon from the DL, Fister and Feldman seem to be competing for the final rotation spot. As it stands, Feldman has the upper hand, and Fister could be relegated to a long-relief role.  Historically, Fister is 4-4 in 10 starts against Texas, and has an absurd 11.85 ERA in Arlington, giving up five home runs in 13.2 innings.

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Fister, like Feldman, will need to focus on getting more ground balls. Over the past two seasons, Fister has seen steep declines in both ground ball percentage and velocity. He can get away with a decrease in one of those categories, but not both. This could be a quick outing if Fister cannot keep the ball down against the potent Texas lineup.

The Rangers ace, Cole Hamels, will look to go 3-0 on the season in the middle game of the series. He has pitched well enough for the Rangers to win in all three of his early season starts, although his last start, versus Baltimore, wasn’t pretty. Against the Orioles, Hamels only went 5.1 innings and gave up seven hits and two walks. In 10 career starts in Arlington, Hamels is yet to record a loss, going 6-0.

He has been effective against the Houston lineup, but not untouchable. Evan Gattis has two home runs against him, and Altuve and Colby Rasmus have also fared well.  Look for Hamels to try to use his nasty change-up to keep the Astros off-balance, and produce some ground ball outs.

Prediction: Rangers 7 – Astros 4

Next: Game 3 Prediction