Houston Astros: Detroit vs Houston Series Preview
![Apr 10, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/https-3A-2F-2Fclimbingtalshill-com-2Ffiles-2F2016-2F04-2Fdallas-keuchel-mlb-houston-astros-milwaukee-brewers-850x560-611eb8c3a5ad07633adccd4a572770c6.jpg)
The Houston Astros will remain at home still in search of their first series victory of 2016. The competition does not get any easier as the 6-2 Detroit Tigers come into Town.
![Apr 10, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Houston Astros pitcher](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/https-3A-2F-2Fclimbingtalshill-com-2Ffiles-2F2016-2F04-2Fdallas-keuchel-jason-castro-mlb-houston-astros-milwaukee-brewers-850x560-e2fc5bd337b9310745de4fbf38f92687.jpg)
Houston has lost three games in a row and is now 3-7 on the year. The Astros simply cannot put a full game together, either struggling to get runs or struggling to get pitching. Offensively, production is solely coming from Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Tyler White and Colby Rasmus. Carlos Gomez and George Springer have looked absolutely terrible at the plate, and Gomez has also made base running errors. As far as pitching, Keuchel and Feldman been mediocre, McHugh had a nice bounce-back game after getting shelled, and both Mike Fiers and Doug Fister have had one decent and bad outing. Starting pitching has been nothing spectacular, to say the least.
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The bullpen has been inconsistent except for Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, and newcomer Chris Devenski. Ken Giles has gotten off to a terrible start. He has given up three home runs in 3.2 innings of work, whereas last season he gave up two long balls in 70 innings. Josh Fields and Tony Sipp have also been very shaky to start the year.
Detroit’s hot start has been fueled by outstanding hitting from both J.D. Martinez (ex-Astro) and Ian Kinsler. Miguel Cabrera is only hitting .241 to start the year, so he is still waiting in the wings to cause some damage as well. Jordan Zimmerman has been the ace of the staff thus far going 2-0 in 13 scoreless innings. Anibal Sanchez and Shane Greene have also had nice starts. The bullpen has been average but has not lost any games for the Tigers.
The Tigers lead the AL with an incredible .295 team batting average, and 49 runs scored, in only eight games; Houston is sixth and fifth in those categories respectively. The Astros do lead the AL with 15 home runs, but also 102 strikeouts, which is similar to last season’s story. Astro pitching is sported the league’s worst team ERA at 5.44 and has given up the most home runs at 16. The solution is simple, and Houston will need to start getting more timely hits, and get better pitching to have a chance at cooling of the Tigers in Minute Maid.
Next: Game 1
Game 1 – Mike Pelfrey (0-1, 14.73) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 3.55)
![Apr 10, 2016; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/https-3A-2F-2Fclimbingtalshill-com-2Ffiles-2F2016-2F04-2Fdallas-keuchel-mlb-houston-astros-milwaukee-brewers-850x560-0a09f072ecbb694e319a1ec6bee0afc8.jpg)
The 32-year-old, former first-round pick Mike Pelfrey is in his first year with his third major league team, His tenure with the Tigers has gotten off to a rocky start. In 3.2 innings, he gave up six earned runs and eight hits to the Yankees lineup in his 2016 debut outing. Pelfrey’s dominant pitch is the sinker, which averaged around 90 mph in his outing against New York, which was three mph less than his average last year. Every single one of the Yankees hits were off his sinker, so he will either need to throw that pitch more efficiently or look to incorporate more off-speed pitches.
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Pelfrey has not had much luck in Minute Maid Park, going 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA and giving up three home runs in 10 innings of work; he also is historically bad at both opening and closing seasons, with a career ERA of over 5.00 in both April and September. The Astro with most at-bats against Pelfrey is Colby Rasmus with nine, including one home run.
Keuchel has struggled with his control in his first two 2016 starts. He has walked ten batters so far this year, last year he totaled 51 walks the entire season. His BB/9 average is at 7.1 as opposed to 2.6 career average. Hitters seem to be taking a more patient approach this year as so far more of his pitches outside of the zone have been taken instead of swung at. Last year hitters swung at 47% of Keuchel’s change-ups outside the zone, this year 18%. His slider got 43% swings, and now 25% of those pitches outside the zone. He has offset his control issues with 13 strikeouts, and by not allowing any home runs. He has fared decently against Detroit over his career, and last year won his only start against them, giving up one run over seven innings.
Game Prediction: Astros 8 – Tigers 2
Next: Game 2
Game 2 – Justin Verlander (0-1, 8.71) vs. Collin McHugh (1-1, 6.14)
![Apr 6, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Collin McHugh (31) walks off the field after beng relieved against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/https-3A-2F-2Fclimbingtalshill-com-2Ffiles-2F2016-2F04-2Fcollin-mchugh-mlb-houston-astros-new-york-yankees-3-850x560-ea4bbfc2c07ece1d9022e73ea8ceea9a.jpg)
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- Alex Bregman goes off in August, leads Astros
The might Verlander doesn’t appear to have it anymore; pitching that is. He still has Kate Upton and plenty in the bank, so congrats, but back to baseball. Injuries have had definite effects on the 33-year-old. He has had core and triceps injuries over the past two seasons, and the fastball that used to average 95 mph is now down to 92 mph. Decreased velocity probably hasn’t been as big of an issue as location. He did rebound last year and put together a good finish to 2015, so it remains to be seen if he can pick that back up. He has had success against Astros hitters, holding the bulk to a very low average. Altuve is hitting .500 in six at-bats against him. Over his career, Verlander has started four games in Houston going 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA.
Collin McHugh put the worst start of his career in New York behind him and turned in a seven-inning shutout performance against the Kansas City Royals. This was needed as the Astros’ starting pitchers got blasted in New York and Milwaukee for the most part. It’s tough to pinpoint the difference between the two starts, given the extremely small sample of his first outing, but we can assume that his pitches might have had a bit more movement and bite in the second outing, and bottom line, the Yankees bats were on fire. McHugh will look to further lower is 6.14 ERA against a Detroit team he has only started two games against. For his career, McHugh is 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA. Both J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton have taken McHugh deep.
Game Prediction: Tigers 4 – Astros 1
Next: Game 3
Game 3 – Anibal Sanchez (2-0, 3.38) vs. Mike Fiers (0-1, 6.55)
![Apr 7, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Fiers (54) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/https-3A-2F-2Fclimbingtalshill-com-2Ffiles-2F2016-2F04-2Fmike-fiers-mlb-houston-astros-new-york-yankees-1-850x560-244f96e80cd212adcce496c437dbfd00.jpg)
In two games Sanchez has pitched well and taken advantage of great run support to start the season 2-0. Victories in two interleague games against Miami and Pittsburgh have seen Sanchez exit both games before the sixth inning, and giving up two earned runs in both games. So far this season Sanchez’s fastball velocity average has not gotten above 90 mph yet, so it appears he may not be fully up to par, but the key to him being successful is keeping the ball in the ballpark.
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- Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
- Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
- Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer
- Alex Bregman goes off in August, leads Astros
Last year Sanchez gave up a ridiculous 29 home runs, good enough to lead the American League. In two starts this season he has given up one long ball. Minute Maid Park could definitely pose a challenge to Sanchez in that aspect, however in four career starts in Houston, he has yet to give up a home run.
Fiers has had a rough start to the year. He got rocked in New York, and then did not pitch well enough against Kansas City in a low scoring game. He has simply given up too many hits. In 11 innings he has allowed 15 hits, including three doubles and three home runs, and the majority of those hits are well hit. It may be in Fiers’ best interest to change things up a bit, and pair him with Jason Castro behind the plate in this game, as Erik Kratz has caught both of his starts this year. In two career starts, Fiers has done well against Detroit, giving up only two earned runs in 11 innings pitched.
Game Prediction: Tigers 5 – Astros 3
2016 Prediction Record (4-6)
Next: Astros: The Usage of Chris Devenski
I cannot see the Astros winning their first series until they can put some complete games together. Until that happens, either Houston won’t get the hits they need, starting pitching will get behind too early, or the bullpen will blow a lead. The Astros had better turn it on quick as they have already taken a seat in last place after ten games.
**Stats from Baseball-Reference**