Houston Astros: Bold Predictions Based On Spring Training

Mike Fiers Will Have a Breakout Season in 2016, Becoming the Astros’ #2 Starter and Earning a Spot on the American League All-Star Roster.

While many Astros fans have turned their focus to Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers to anchor the rotation for years to come, Mike Fiers has slowly progressed during his time in Houston. We paid attention to Fiers one night last season in August, and he pitched a No-No against the Los Angeles Dodgers. This season, more production is on the way.

When he began his MLB career in 2012, Fiers was a valuable pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers. Throughout his time in Milwaukee, he showed flashes of greatness marked by periods of inconsistency and setbacks due to injury. After starting a full season’s worth of games in 2012, Fiers sat out all of 2013 after breaking his pitching arm on a line drive.

Since then, Fiers has put together stretches of solid performances both in Milwaukee and in Houston but has not been able to stretch out this quality starts for a full season. His potential showed through his 2.14 ERA in 2014 with the Brewers and his no-hitter for the Astros in August of 2015, but for some reason, he has not been able to stay consistently in a rotation.

In 2016, Fiers has put up great Spring Training numbers and cemented himself in the Astros starting rotation. He has now had a full offseason and spring training to work with Astros pitching coach Brent Strom, and looks as sharp as ever headed into the regular season. With Lance McCullers now starting the season on the disabled list, it looks as if Fiers could move himself up into the top half of the Astros’ starting rotation to begin the season.

In the Spring Training game that I got to watch live and in person, Fiers pitched three perfect innings against a Cardinals lineup that included Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Tommy Pham, and Matt Adams. In those three innings, Fiers struck out four and possessed a superb command of his pitches. He worked through the Cardinals’ order quickly, wasting no pitches and fooling some of the minor league hitters in the lineup.

If Fiers can maintain his numbers and momentum that he has put together in the spring, he will take advantage of the great opportunity in front of him. With Dallas Keuchel as the ace of the staff, Fiers will be the unexpected pitcher to complete the 1-2 punch for the Astros in 2016. In fact, Fiers will use his impeccable command and looping curveball to propel him to the All-Star Game in San Diego.

Next: Bold Prediction #2: Pat Neshek Will Be Most Dominant Astros Reliever

While Astros Fans Will Focus on Ken Giles, Pat Neshek Will Quietly Become the Astros’ Most Dominant Pitcher in the Bullpen in 2016.

The Luke Gregerson and Ken Giles closer controversy will be the main story for the Astros bullpen in 2016, but other plot lines have developed in Spring Training thus far. Some examples of these story lines are the lack of left-handed pitchers, who slots in the long relief role, and if any prospects make the cut.

But, Pat Neshek has certainly made some headlines this spring as well. Starting with an interesting press conference on Day 1 of Astros camp, Neshek made headlines with a bone growth that was removed from his foot in the offseason. Not the prettiest way to start the year, but baseball is a grown man’s game.

After all the medical talk was finished, Neshek went to work in Kissimmee. Through five appearances so far, Neshek has a 1.93 ERA, six strikeouts, and a 1.29 WHIP. Two out of his five appearances have been perfect innings (no walks, hits, or runs), and four of his five appearances have been scoreless outings.

Based on his spring results, I would expect Neshek to be the main pitcher in the 8th inning for the Astros, perhaps even taking over the closer role if Gregerson or Giles struggle for an extended period. Neshek claimed that his foot injury bothered him throughout 2015, which would explain his struggles towards the end of the season.

Neshek started the 2015 season pitching very well, collapsed in September, and was mostly unavailable in the postseason. Although he got a couple of playoff appearances, Neshek just was not the same after the All-Star Game. His 5.06 ERA and .315/.371/.539 slash line allowed after the all-star break is a sign that something definitely was not right.

In 2016, I expect Neshek to put this gross injury behind him and perform consistently well for the whole season. He’s too valuable, as a veteran reliever, to disappear as a relief option in September and October. As long as Giles and Gregerson duke it out for the closing spot, I expect Neshek and Tony Sipp to be solid veteran presences in the Astros clubhouse and on the mound.

If everything goes well health-wise, Neshek will lead the American League in holds while lowering his ERA from 3.62 in 2015 to around 2.00 in 2016. He has been even better than this before, so I’m predicting Neshek to have his first stellar season with the Astros this season.

Next: Bold Prediction #3: Preston Tucker Will Establish Himself as Astros DH

Preston Tucker Will Establish Himself as Astros Designated Hitter in 2016 and Never Look Back

Besides establishing a reputation as a (Detroit) Tiger Killer in 2015, Preston Tucker became a force in the Astros lineup for a large portion of the season. Bam-Bam also became a fan favorite with his laid back personality and clutch late-inning hits and home runs.

So far, all Tucker has done in 2016 is get better. In Spring Training, Tucker is lighting it up with a .292/.346/.583 slash line, two home runs, six RBIs, and only five strikeouts. The only thing slowing Tucker down in Florida during the last few weeks is…

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With Evan Gattis sidelined to begin the season, I believe that Tucker will get his opportunity at designated hitter on Opening Day. Tucker has his issues in the outfield, but at the plate, he’s a patient hitter who can hit for a lot of power and also for contact. The Astros will look to have an elite defensive outfield with George Springer, Carlos Gomez, Colby Rasmus, and Jake Marisnick. Tucker, although he can hold his own out there, does not have nearly the defensive ability of this group.

When Gattis returns, the Astros will definitely have a decision to make, but my bold prediction is that Tucker will have the position locked up by that point. Baseball Reference projects Tucker to hit 13 home runs, drive in 39 RBIs, and produce a slash line of .254/.311/.435 in 2016.

I believe that Tucker can and will blow away these numbers, hitting 22 home runs and driving in around 70 RBIs this season. His average will hover around .270, and he will maintain a low number of strikeouts. The Astros will rely on Tucker to be a hitter that isn’t as free-swinging as the rest of the club, and Tucker will do his job.

Astros manager A.J. Hinch indicated earlier this week that Tucker is out of the mix at first base, but that does not mean that he won’t make the Opening Day roster. It would be the biggest mistake of the young 2016 season for Houston as Tucker is primed to have a breakout performance in 2016 and solidify himself as the Astros’ designated hitter of the future.

Next: Michael Feliz Should Be Next Man Up in Astros Rotation

I hope you all enjoyed these bold predictions for the half of the roster that I watched a couple weeks ago. If even one of these predictions comes true, all Astros fans will be ecstatic.