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Houston Astros Should Absolutely Not Deal for Freddie Freeman

By Brian Del Castillo |
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Houston Astros Should Look Within for Answers at First

Sep 25, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) connects for a base hit during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros had their problems with first base in 2015.  The turnstile of players and platoons utilized by manager A.J. Hinch was comical at times.  Still, the team was productive if inconsistent on offense.  Now, there is talk that the Atlanta Braves tear down could culminate with them shipping off Freddie Freeman for a treasure trove of prospects.  Of course, pundits and short-sighted Astros diehards are all over the obvious match for both teams.  I argue that there are several reasons not to make that deal from Houston’s standpoint.

When the Astros jumped out to a hot start in 2015 and claimed a stronghold of the American League West, I tweeted general manager Jeff Luhnow “Freddie Freeman – He can be had.”  Of course, I was joking.  First of all, I was under the impression that Freeman would be untouchable from the Braves standpoint because I envisioned a shorter rebuilding plan for Atlanta.

Also, we had Chris Carter coming off a 37 homer year and at any moment, Jonathan Singleton would be recalled from his major league banishment to claim his rightful place as the everyday first sacker.  Yes, I realize my crystal ball was misaligned.  Would I have been ecstatic if Luhnow would have been able to pull off a deal for Freeman in June?  Absolutely.

However, that deal did not go down in June.  Freeman suffered through being on a bad Braves team.  The Astros had a miserable first base platoon through the entire year and post season, and they went home in the first round of the playoffs (Wild Card Playoff is not considered a round).   Now, it’s December, and we’re looking towards 2016, not October 2015. That is why I present the following reasons not to make the deal for Freeman now.

Next: The Cost Would Be Too Great

The Cost Would Be Too Great

Sep 20, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) drives in a run with a hit against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Freddie Freeman, who is 26 years old, will make $12 million dollars in 2016.  That in and of itself is not so bad for a player of his caliber.  However, the following five years, he will make $20.5m, $21m, $21m, $22m, and $22 million in his final contract year of 2021.  Again, he is one of the more consistent players in the league, and his left-handed bat would protect Carlos Correa quite nicely in the order, but the cost does not end there.

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Since you would be paying for a premium player in his prime with control over the next six years, you would be paying for the entire contract AND the cost of the deal to acquire him.  There is no doubt that the Braves will demand a king’s ransom for their star player should they decide to move him.  What would the Astros be comfortable with giving in return?

Surely, a couple of star pitching prospects like Vincent Velasquez, Michael Feliz, Mark Appel or Joe Musgrove would be part of the deal.  Add uber-prospect and future first baseman, A.J. Reed to the pot and throw in another young talent as well.  Then, you might be in the ballpark to bring Freeman to Houston.  I just don’t see Jeff Luhnow being able to swallow that.  One of the main reasons why is my next point.

Next: The Future is Now

The Future is Now

A.J. Reed is playing first. Photo Credit by Tammy Tucker

We know how great Freeman is.  That is why we are talking about him.  He would be a huge addition to any lineup, but especially one that needs true hitters.  Freeman is a lifetime .285 hitter, and that is at least what I would expect him to hit in the middle of the Astros lineup if that were to happen.  But that number does not tell the whole story about how good a complete hitter he is.  Freeman can hit to all fields, hit for average, and pop out 20+ homers a year.  His OPS (on-base plus slugging) was .841 in an injury plagued year, and I just think he is going to get better over the next few years.

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I expect another young man named Reed to get better as well.  I covered Reed at high-A Lancaster last year and at the time he was promoted to double-A, he led the league in batting average, home runs, R.B.I., on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walks, and OPS.  I’ll let that sink in…

Reed, the slugging first baseman who finished 2015 at Double-A Corpus Christi in the Astros organization, has hit at every level and hit well.  In 2014, Reed won the Golden Spikes Award as the top amateur baseball player in the country while playing for the University of Kentucky.  In 2015, he won the Offensive Player of the Year award for Minor League baseball (The previous two award winners were Kris Bryant in 2014 and Joey Gallo in 2013).

Reed was certainly on the cusp of making his major league debut in 2015, but the Astros chose to ride the veterans on the roster into the playoffs rather than gamble with a rookie.  This may seem comical as the lion’s share of first base at bats went to Chris Carter (.199 BA/.307 OBP) and Luis Valbuena (.224 BA/.310 OBP).  It was a hard sell to try and convince me that A.J. Reed would not have done better than that at his worst.

You do not have to trade away pieces acquired over the last few years to acquire a fantastic left-handed hitting first baseman.  You don’t even need to pay millions of dollars to acquire one.  You have one in your farm system that will make $500K/year, and he’ll be ready to go for 2016.

Next: Health

Can Freeman Stay Healthy?

Sep 13, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) breaks his bat after hitting a foul ball against the New York Mets at Turner Field. The Mets defeated the Braves 10-7 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I’ll end my assault on the idea of trading for Freddie Freeman with my flimsiest argument.  Freddie’s health is a little bit of a question for me.  Yes, he was durable for his first four full seasons in the majors, but 2015 was different.  He missed a quarter of the season with a wrist injury and a strained oblique.

It is plausible that the wrist injury, which was the most serious of the two, could linger and either cause pain or require surgery.  That’s where Freddie makes his money.  I’m not rooting for it, but I could see this being a problem for the young man if it is aggravated.

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Houston Astros Podcast – All in for Freddie Freeman

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For my money, I’d let Valbuena and Marwin Gonzalez handle first base until A.J. Reed surpasses the super two deadline and then give him the job.  If the Astros need to deal prospects, they should do that for a high-end closer or frontline starting pitcher.

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