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Astros: Comparing Carlos Correa’s Rookie Season with Jeff Bagwell’s

By Eric Huysman |
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Three Similar/Different things of Correa and Bagwell’s rookie years

Aug 15, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros former players Jeff Bagwell (left) and Craig Biggio (right) before a game against the Detroit Tigers at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros had the third largest increase in wins in 2015 from 2014 with a 16 win increase, 70 wins to 86 wins. One of the main reasons for the improvement was the youth infusion from several rookies led by the 2012 number one pick Carlos Correa. Last night, the BBWAA announced the Jackie Robinson American League Rookie of the Year Award, and Correa beat out fellow Puerto Rican shortstop Francisco Lindor by four votes. Correa received 17 first-place votes while Lindor received only 13.

When Correa came up to the Astros, his immediate success made him the favorite to earn the ROY early. However, Lindor came up shortly after and tried to help the Indians get back into the playoff chase, but they came up short. There was a big push for Lindor to win the award based on his better defense and hitting ability, but at the end of the day, Correa came out on top.

There has only been one other rookie of the year award winner in Astros history, and his name was Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell is trying to get into the Hall of Fame in 2016, but he won his ROY in 1991 as a third baseman turned first baseman.

In honor of Correa’s 2015 ROY, we wanted to take a look at the similarities and differences of the two players rookie seasons. I know the most glaring difference is their positions, but I will not focus on that.

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Next: First difference

First Difference

Sep 30, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) stands in the on deck circle before an at bat against the Seattle Mariners during the seventh inning at Safeco Field. Houston defeated Seattle, 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The road they took to make their Astros’ debut

One way the two player’s rookie years differ are the path they took in making their debut with the Astros. Bagwell was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in 1989 in the fourth round of the MLB Draft out of the University of Hartford in Connecticut. Bagwell spent very little time in the minors, topping Double-A New Britain before one of the most lopsided trade deadline deal in the history of the MLB brought Bagwell to Houston for Larry Anderson in 1990. Bagwell did not make an appearance in the Astros minor leagues, debuting the following season at the age of 22-years-old. Bagwell spent two years in the minors, was the opening day starter in 1991.

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Correa, on the other hand, was drafted by the Houston Astros with the number one overall pick in 2012. Correa was drafted out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy by the Astros. Drafting Correa came as a surprise to most people at the time over Byron Buxton but now looks like a great move. I interviewed Astros scout Joey Sola who had a hand in scouting Correa back in 2012; you can read it here. The Astros took it slow with Correa as they tried to stall his free-agency clock. Correa stayed in the minors for four years, made his debut in June of 2015.

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Next: First Similarity

First Similarity

Led that year with homers hit by a rookie

Bagwell broke out in his rookie season with 15 home runs in 156 games, which led the National League in 1991. According to Baseball-Reference, the following players finished behind Bagwell with homers.

Wes Chamberlain – 13 homers

Brian Hunter – 12 homers

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Bagwell played in a different time and stadium than Correa did. He hit six of those 15 homers at the spacious Astrodome. Bagwell helped bring the power to the Astros lineup that they lacked for years.

Correa hit 22 home runs in 99 games to lead the American League in 2015. Correa slowed down his home run pace at the end of the season; he still was able to hang on to the lead in home runs. Let’s look at the two players to finish behind Correa in 2015.

Miguel Sano – 18 homers

Mark Canha – 16 homers

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Next: Second Difference

Second Difference

Expectations based on minor league stats

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I’m sure many baseball experts at the time could say that they saw Bagwell’s emergence coming. However, by looking at his overall minor league stats in his short stint in the minors, Bagwell seemed like a contact gap hitter similar to what the Astros have in Colin Moran right now. Bagwell hit four homers in Double-A in 1990 with a .333 batting average. I wish I could remember how Astros fans reacted the first time they saw Bagwell’s stance, and thought he would never generate power.

On the other side of the coin, Correa was one of the top prospects in baseball at the beginning of 2015. Everyone saw Correa coming, although some people were surprised with how easy the game came to him. Correa hit for power, average, and developing speed in the minors, so he was fairly projectable. Unlike Bagwell, who came out of nowhere.

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Next: Second Similarity

Second Similarity

Sep 12, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) stretches out to catch a ground ball against the Los Angeles Angels during the third inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Errors and defense

Bagwell was a third baseman in the Red Sox system and committed 34 errors at Double-A in 1990. When the Astros traded for him, they probably noticed the errors at third base and already had Ken Caminiti, so they moved him to first base. He had played one game at first base in the minors, so it was expected that he would have some growing pains. Bagwell had a .991 fielding percentage with 12 errors in 1991 in his first experience at first base. He later developed into a Gold Glove first baseman down the road.

Bagwell’s 1991 defensive WAR by Fangraphs: -8.1 WAR

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There had been whispers surrounding Correa since he has been drafted; he is too tall to play shortstop. He has worked really hard to prove people wrong and fight off a move to third base. He started off on fire with defense; I remember a time where A.J. Hinch said that there will be a time that Correa would make his first error, and it would be okay. He did make his first error during a game, and we still thought he was a good player. He finished with a .967 fielding percentage but had 13 errors in his rookie campaign. Most of his errors were based on overthrowing the ball trying to be aggressive.

Correa’s 2015 defensive WAR by Fangraphs: -1.6 WAR

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Next: Third Difference

Third Difference

WAR (Wins Over Replacement)

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Despite Correa’s glowing stats, Bagwell’s WAR in 1991 was 4.3 while Correa had a 3.3 WAR from Fangraphs. Part of this could be the fact that Bagwell played a full season, while Correa only played in 99 games with a June call-up and missing a week with an injury in the second half of the season. The only reason Bagwell’s WAR wasn’t higher was his defensive WAR brought the overall WAR down a little. Bagwell had a better batting average (.296 to .279) and on-base percent (.387 to .345), but Correa showed more pop in his bat with the .512 slugging percentage compared to Bagwell’s .437.

Bagwell scored more runs and created more runs that Correa with a wRC of 100 compared to Correa’s 67. Correa demonstrated the most speed early while Bagwell used his instincts to steal down the road. With the experience of 2015, Correa can only get better and hopefully one day we will be discussing him for the Hall of Fame like we are Bagwell and Craig Biggio.

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Next: Third Similarity

Third Similarity

Oct 12, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Kansas City Royals during the seventh inning in game four of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

wRC+ (Runs Created plus On-Base Average)

What is wRC+? If you ask Bagwell what it means, he may not know about that because the sabermetrics in baseball in a recent thing in baseball. Let’s take a look at what +wRC means based on the definition from Fangraphs.

“Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects.  League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.” – Fangraphs.

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Both Bagwell and Correa finished their respective rookie seasons with a similar w RC.+

Bagwell’s 1991 wRC+: 138

Correa’s 2015 wRC+: 133

While they are not exactly identical, you have to factor in the time that Correa missed compared to Bagwell starting opening day and Correa not debuting until June. They both created more than 30% more runs than the average MLB baseball player. This takes in the ballpark conditions, so Bagwell might get the slight edge with doing what he did and the Astrodome while Correa gets to hit in Minute Maid Park.

Next: Houston Astros’ Carlos Correa voted BBWAA AL Rookie of the Year

Both Bagwell and Correa showed maturity in their first season with the Astros. People are raving on how much Correa knows about baseball and how he composes himself with the media. Bagwell was the face of the Astros for many years. Hopefully, Correa follows in his footsteps.

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