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Houston Astros: How the Stros can improve at third base in 2016

By Austin Swafford |
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A look at third base options for 2016

Oct 14, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Luis Valbuena (18) celebrates after hitting a two-run home run against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning in game five of the ALDS at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

There’s really no disputing that the 2015 Astros were one of the all-time most surprising teams. They arrived well ahead of schedule, so it feels a little strange to say that there are glaring weaknesses they need to improve upon.

Nevertheless, the ALDS series against the Royals showed the Astros have glaring weaknesses they need to improve upon.

One of the places that stands out most is third base. According to Baseball-reference.com, Astros third basemen posted a slash line of .223/.298/.412/.710.

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By position, that’s the third-worst on the team across the board. I know. How fitting for third base. The bottom line is, there’s nothing particularly good that came from third base.

How do they strengthen this position that’s supposed to be a power bat position so that they match up more evenly with the Kansas City Royals’ of the world as they move forward? We’ll take a look at the best options available to them on the roster, by trade and by free agency.

Next: On roster third base options

On roster third base options

Sep 19, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) shortstop Jonathan Villar (2) and shortstop Marwin Gonzalez (9) watch play against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 10 to 6. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Houston has five players that contributed at third base this year — Luis Valbuena, Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie, Jonathan Villar and Matt Duffy.

Valbuena wasn’t bad for the price as a piece that came over in the Dexter Fowler trade. He hit a lot of home runs and I felt his defense was always very underrated. However, he’s also arbitration-eligible, and he was the epitome of the weakness of the Astros lineup, hitting 25 home runs and striking out 106 times while putting up a .310 on-base percentage. I expect the Astros to non-tender him and let him walk.

Gonzalez has emerged the last two years as a surprisingly useful utility infielder, but I still think that’s all he is at this point. He’s arbitration eligible coming off of a $1.06 million contract, so he will definitely be worth keeping around. But with his extreme splits (he had a .294 OBP and .698 OPS as a left-handed hitter this year), his greatest value is still as a utility player rather than the starting third baseman.

Lowrie was a disappointment this year. Not because he was hurt for a long time. That’s predictable. But because he was so bad when he returned from injury. Maybe he’s better next year. He was batting .300 when he went on the DL in April and hit .194 after he returned. Not what you expect from him. When healthy, Lowrie is exactly the kind of high-contact, low-strikeout the Astros need in their lineup. They just can’t count on his health. Lowrie has only played in over 100 games twice in his eight-year career. Houston needs a more reliable option.

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Villar is a poor man’s Marwin with better baserunning skills. He’s a great baserunner and an adequate utility player who strikes out too much and is a big defensive detriment. They worked with him hard on his defense, and he showed improvement, but he’s still not who I want to see for 150+ games at third base.

Duffy might well be Houston’s third baseman of the future. I certainly liked what he showed in his brief stint in the majors this year. However, he currently has a lot of what the Astros don’t need more of — power with lots of strikeouts. The last two years between AA and AAA, he has 196 Ks and just 56 walks. I like him in a year or two, but I don’t like him to fix what needs to be fixed at third base for Houston to compete next year.

Since it’s unlikely the best option for the Astros is currently on the roster (naturally…you saw the stats), let’s take a look at their trade options.

Next: Trade third base options

Trade third base options

Sep 25, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Martin Prado (14) is unable to field a hit down the third base line during the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

These are a little difficult to nail down because you don’t always know who is actually available. I’ll rely on a couple of guys that had some rumors swirling around them at the trade deadline this year but ended up not being dealt — Todd Frazier and Martin Prado.

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Let’s see if this line for Frazier seems familiar: 35 HR, 44 BB, 137 K, .255 BA, .309 OBP. Sounds about like what the Astros already have, right? So why would they trade prospects for a 29-year-old who is basically providing what they already have, is slated to make $7.5 million next year and is only controlled through 2016 before becoming arbitration eligible? Pass.

Prado is a pretty interesting option. He’s 32 years old and scheduled to make $11 million next year ($3 million of which is paid by the Yankees), and is only controlled for the one year before becoming an unrestricted free agent. He also doesn’t provide the kind of power you’d typically want from a third baseman (9 home runs last year, and his career high is 15). However, he does provide nice contact hitting, which the Astros are in desperate need of. He’s a reliable .280+ hitter who struck out 68 times last year against 37 walks.

He’s pricey for what he provides, especially at his age, but he does provide something that the Astros could use. I’m not in love with him, but he’s worth a peek to see if the Astros can get him for the right price (think something like the Michael Bourn trade but where the Astros rob their trade partner).

That said, the Astros have a lot of talent coming down the pipe and no trade options that anyone could really love. Barring some highway robbery of the Marlins where the Astros also don’t take much of a budget hit and don’t give up any really viable prospects, we probably need to move on to the free agent options.

Next: Free agent third base options

Free agent third base options

Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) celebrates with catcher Salvador Perez (13) after scoring a run against the New York Mets in the 12th inning in game five of the World Series at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

There are three intriguing free agent options for the Astros with Ben Zobrist, David Freese, and Brett Lawrie (if the Athletics non-tender him. He’s arbitration-eligible, so his status is a little in flux at the moment).

Freese has upside with his knowledge of division opponents, the fact that he’s still posting a respectable WAR at the age of 32 (2.3 according to Baseball-reference), and that he’s making less money than you might think ($6.43 million this year). But is it worth it to sign a veteran who looks like he will do basically what Duffy will do but with a much higher price tag? No.

Lawrie is young (25), athletic, cheap ($1.93 million this year), and has a poor on-base percentage (.299) and lots of strikeouts (144) to match his bad attitude. Even if the Athletics non-tender him, I don’t think he’s what the Astros need from a skills perspective or an attitude perspective.

Then there’s Zobrist. The prodigal son from one of the worst trades in Astros history. I know he’s not technically a third baseman, but I’m thinking a little outside the box on this because there are no other options that I’m in love with. I thought Eric Huysman made a good point yesterday when he said the Astros should raid the Royals roster if they want to beat them next year.

And Zobrist might be obtainable since the Royals have so much to focus on to maintain their winning ways next year, with Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, and Alcides Escobar all headed into free agency; and Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain going into arbitration. That’s a lot to work on, and Zobrist seems like the least likely to return.

Zobrist is old (34) and pricey ($7.5 million this year), but he’s also exactly what the Astros need in their lineup — a pesky contact guy who never strikes out and is durable.

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I have no idea how he would work out at third base. He has played there (naturally, where hasn’t he played?) but not very much. It could be risky trying to make him their full-time third baseman. But if anyone could make it work, it’s the ultra-versatile Zobrist.

And I like the possibilities it gives their lineup. They can put him in either the number one or two spots, presenting an epic headache for pitchers having to face him and Jose Altuve back-to-back, and dropping George Springer to a lower power spot in the lineup that might be better suited for his muscle.

Or, they could put him in a non-traditional spot for a guy with his skillset. He could look good in the fifth spot breaking up all of those high-strikeout guys and providing them with a mid-lineup table setter.

He could go in the ninth spot and basically serve the role that they tried early in the season with Jake Marisnick as another turnover leadoff guy.

Next: One way the Astros can beat the Kansas City Royals next time

I think it’s worth a shot if the Astros can lure Zobrist with a short-term contract while they keep the spot warm for Duffy. I know it’s a long shot, but it’s worth pursuing as I really think it’s his best shot. And if he doesn’t work out at third base, the worst situation is that they have another super utility player that they can plug and play anywhere. Who could be mad at that?

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