Looking Back and Looking Forward – Evaluating the Houston Astros

2015: What Went Right

1. Carlos Correa is a star.

How soon we forget, but entering the season, there was legitimate doubt surrounding Correa. He had hit .325 in a half-season in High-A Lancaster, but with only six home runs in the hitters’ paradise. In late June, he broke his leg and missed the rest of the season. Jed Lowrie was signed to a 3-year, $23M contract that was supposed to include at least one, and likely two, full seasons as the starting shortstop. We now know that Correa is a true franchise player, a solid-average defender with an elite bat at a premium position. Entering his age-21 season with six years of team control remaining — the next three at the league minimum — he may be the most valuable asset in baseball.

2. Our starting rotation is deep, talented and cheap.

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The Astros will enter 2015 with likely Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel (2.91 FIP), 22-year old phenom Lance McCullers (3.26 FIP), Collin McHugh (3.58 FIP), Mike Fiers (4.03 FIP), Vincent Velasquez (3.46 FIP) and Scott Feldman (4.32 FIP) all under contract. Only Keuchel and Feldman, at a combined salary of about $15M, will make more than the league minimum, giving the Astros six legitimate Major League starters for a total of less than $20M.

Some fans may want to add a big name starting pitcher via free agency. Assuming 180-190 IP workloads for McCullers and Velasquez, I see no need to allocate limited resources to the rotation. Even during a tumultuous September swoon, our rotation remained a stabilizing force.

3. A.J. Hinch and The Clubhouse

Team chemistry is not a prerequisite for success — winning teams have it because winning makes everyone feel better. But Hinch has clearly created an environment where players feel they can be themselves, and the glowing reviews of the 2015 season by several veterans following a loss to Kansas City speak to the quality of the atmosphere. This has tangible value — Luhnow’s first three seasons created a reasonable perception that the Astros treated players as chess pieces, with no respect for the individual player as a person, only as an asset.

This perception likely made it more difficult to sign free agents, such as Andrew Miller, who the Astros lost to an inferior bid by the Yankees. It also may have played a role in Cole Hamels vetoing a trade to Houston in July. The image around here is changing, though, and Luhnow’s problems recruiting players who have options may be a thing of the past.

Next: 2016: What Has to Happen

2016: What Has to Happen

1. The Addition of a Left-Handed, High Impact Bat

As Johnny Cueto showed just last night, the Astros have great difficulty hitting quality right-handed pitching. The top of the lineup is stacked with three right-handed stars (Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Correa) who all hit lefties better than righties. In Altuve’s case, the split is profound. If you include Evan Gattis and Carlos Gomez, the only one of their top six batters in the order who is left-handed — LF Colby Rasmus — is also the only free agent.

Part of this will be solved with the arrival of A.J. Reed, the slugging first baseman who is Houston’s best remaining prospect. Playing Jon Singleton over Gattis — a strategy that looks great on paper but seems to have no support from anyone who matters — would also balance the order.

Beyond the internal options, I would break the bank, no questions asked, for Jason Heyward. The 26-year old Cardinals outfielder is patient (.359 OBP), a superior defender, and is coming off a season where he hit a career-high .293. His youth, production and athleticism make him a coveted free agent. I would expect the bidding to reach $140-$150M, perhaps higher. The Astros have very few long-term payroll commitments, and could frontload Heyward’s contract to pay him most the next two or three years, while Correa, Springer, Altuve and Keuchel are team-controlled and affordable. This is a strategy they used with Feldman two years ago. Heyward would be a tremendous fit batting second or third in the Astros lineup, breaking up the trio of right-handed stars they currently feature.

2. The Health of George Springer

Springer, who is also entering his age-26 season, has posted matching 126 OPS+ seasons to start his career, very strong, borderline-star performances. He has been limited to 180 of a possible 324 games, and his absence from the lineup significantly weakens the Astros, particularly their on-base ability near the top of the order. In 102 games, Springer was worth 3.8 WAR. A healthy, 150-game season would be worth an extra two wins, even if no continued improvement occurs. I also believe Springer has a 35+ HR peak season or two in his near-future, and they need him healthy to tap into that upside. Even if it doesn’t come in 2016,  those two extra wins are wins the Astros will need in 2016.

3. Velocity in the Pen

The Astros should not trade the farm for Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel. The acquisition cost would far outweigh the benefit of a year or two of those relievers. What the Astros really need is velocity. Perhaps the biggest reason the Rangers won the division is two shrewd bullpen acquisitions: RHP Sam Dyson from the Marlins, and LHP Jake Diekman in the Hamels trade with Philadelphia. What did those pitchers have in common? They both hit 98 MPH on the gun fairly routinely. In big games, pitchers who can overpower and avoid bats are especially desirable. As we saw in Game 4, guys who pitch to contact are extremely vulnerable to focused, desperate offenses in big games.

The solution here may be in-house, with young guys like Velasquez, Michael Feliz, or Mark Appel all capable of sitting in the mid-90s out of the bullpen. But if not, the Astros need to take fliers on intriguing high-velocity options from outside the organization.

Next: The Houston Astros season draws to a close, but future is bright