Ultimate ALDS Game 1 Preview: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals

Game 1 Preview: Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals

Yordano Ventura #30 of the Kansas City Royals throws in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium on July 26, 2015 in Kansas City, Missouri.

(July 25, 2015 – Mandatory Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images North America)

Whatever you think of the Wild Card Game, those debates can be laid to rest for at least another year. By any definition, the Astros are now officially in the playoffs, starting Thursday night in Kansas City to kick off the American League Division Series.

The Royals are a different style of opponent from the vanquished Yankees (or from the Blue Jays and Rangers, for that matter). They rely less on taking pitches and working counts, and more on a high-contact approach that emphasizes putting the ball in play. Essentially, they take the same approach the Astros do, only their hacks make contact a lot more often, and launch the ball over the fence a lot less. With two aggressive offenses, there will not be four-hour games in this ALDS matchup (as an aside, if you’re a baseball fan who hates and constantly bemoans long games, perhaps you’re not as much of a baseball fan as you think).

Earlier this morning, the final 25-man rosters were announced. To make room for the trio of non-Keuchel rotation members of their playoff rotation, the Astros dropped Matt Duffy, Chad Qualls and Jonathan Villar from the roster. In my judgment, these were the correct moves, with the possible exception of Villar. Jed Lowrie, a useful switch-hitter at full strength, is now relegated to a right-handed pinch-hitter – the Royals have no projected left-handed starters — and defensive replacement. Villar is arguably a better fit for that role, and can pinch-run.

Game 1 pits young Royals fireballer Yordano Ventura (3.60 xFIP) against steady workhorse Collin McHugh (3.91 xFIP). As pitching matchups go, this one is fairly even, with Ventura having more single-game upside but also more volatility. Let’s break this down for when each team is at bat:

When the Astros Hit

Aug 25, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Luis Valbuena (18) hits a two run double in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Lineup (2015 wOBA vs. R)

2B Jose Altuve (.319)

RF George Springer (.336)

SS Carlos Correa (.359)

LF Colby Rasmus (.329)

CF Carlos Gomez (.324)

DH Evan Gattis (.330)

3B Luis Valbuena (.348)

1B Chris Carter (.318)

C Jason Castro (.307)

Opposing Pitcher (2015 xFIP vs. R/L)

RHP Yordano Ventura (3.47/3.74)

Four Key Relievers (xFIP vs. R/L)

RHP Kelvin Herrera (3.67/3.95)

RHP Ryan Madson (3.38/3.26)

LHP Franklin Morales (4.37/3.47)

RHP Wade Davis (3.18/2.99)

Ventura is an extremely hard thrower. According to the PITCHf/x data, his four-seam fastball averages 96 MPH and tops out at 101.9, while his two-seamer averages 96.3 and tops out at 100.7. These are not his strikeout pitches, as they mostly serve to set up an unhittable curve: opponents are batting just .153 against his hook this year, and Ventura has gotten 89 of his strikeouts on the pitch. This is bad news for Rasmus, Gattis, and Valbuena, who are among the weakest hitters in baseball against curveballs.

Ventura is a really tough matchup for the Astros. They also struggle more than most teams with velocity. According to PITCHF/x, they ranked 27th in all of MLB in run-producing swings against pitches of 93 MPH or greater, as I detailed last month.

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He dominated them over seven innings on July 26 in Kansas City (against a lineup that did not include George Springer or Carlos Gomez), beating Dallas Keuchel in the process. If Ventura ever puts his stuff together, he can pitch like a true ace. It will be interesting to see if the Astros try to wear him down to get him out of the game or try to jump on hittable pitches early in the count.
Behind Ventura is a bullpen not quite up to the traditionally high standards of the Royals. Long-time closer Greg Holland tried to pitch through a torn UCL this year, but lost a lot of velocity and was eventually forced to undergo surgery. This injury elevated the superior Davis to closer, but that promotion weakened the setup crew that Davis had anchored during their 2014 run to the World Series. The Astros best approach would be to force Ventura out of the game by the end of the sixth inning, and then do some damage against the pre-Davis relievers in the mid-late innings.

Player to Watch: Carter. In a lineup of sluggers who – on paper – play right into Ventura’s hands, Carter’s patience and ability to adjust to off-speed pitches may play in his favor. He’s hot right now, and I would not be surprised to see him do damage against Ventura in a big spot.

Next: When the Royals Hit

When the Royals Hit

Apr 10, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Collin McHugh (31) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Lineup (2015 wOBA v. R)

SS Alcides Escobar (.263)

2B Ben Zobrist (.327)

CF Lorenzo Cain (.338)

1B Eric Hosmer (.378)

DH Kendrys Morales (.385)

LF Alex Gordon (.347)

3B Mike Moustakas (.354)

C Salvador Perez (.328)

RF Alex Rios (.290)

Opposing Pitcher (xFIP v. R/L)

RHP Collin McHugh (3.90/3.92)

I should start by noting that this is not an optimal batting order from Ned Yost. Escobar is the worst hitter he has among his starters, and should be batting ninth, not first. But Yost believes there is some magic spark to having Escobar leadoff, so we can hope he sticks to his guns. Realistically, Gordon, Zobrist or Moustakas should be in the leadoff spot, with Hosmer no lower than third.

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McHugh has used a slow curve and steady diet of cutters this year to make up for diminished fastball velocity and a slider that has been demolished. The result is he’s gone from a pitcher who was almost unhittable against right-handed hitters to a guy with no discernible platoon split. If anything, he is now more effective against lefties, of which he will see at least five dangerous options from the Royals (Zobrist, Hosmer, Morales, Gordon, and Moustakas).

If McHugh can throw his big hook for strikes early in the count, and as a put-away pitch later in counts, he will be able to get soft contact and work efficiently. If he is falling behind and trusting his fastball too much, the Royals are going to jump on him. I expect a lot of cutter/curveball at-bats and a lot of contact. McHugh has allowed a lot less hard contact in the second half (20.4% after 28.1% in the first half). He will need to continue that trend of missing the sweet spot tonight. Pay attention to the quality of his cutters to the lefties.

Player to Watch: Morales. He has feasted on right-handed pitching this year, and will get a half-dozen high leverage at-bats in this series against RHP. I would expect one or two of those to come tonight. Getting him out when high-OBP weapons (and smart baserunners) Zobrist, Cain, and Hosmer are on base is essential. I am interested to see what plan Brent Strom has for Morales.

Next: Predictions