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Why Can’t the Houston Astros Win on the Road?
Why Can’t the Houston Astros Win on the Road?
Sep 17, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros second baseman
Jose Altuve(27) watches from the dugout during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
This year, as well as being shockingly successful for the Houston Astros, has been one of a multitude of statistical anomalies. Houston has a +94 run differential (4th-best in the majors), yet sit behind the Texas Rangers and their -5 run differential in the AL West. The Astros are a statistical carbon copy of the Chicago Cubs, so statistically speaking, they should be at least where the Cubs are — running away with the second wildcard spot.
They cling to playoff hope on the strength of the league’s best home record (51-26) but teeter on the brink of late-season implosion with the league’s worst road record (29-46).
It has been an issue for the Astros all year: Why can’t they win on the road? These aren’t the Astros of 2010-2014. They are clearly very capable of winning, but you would not know it to watch them on the road.
To be sure, there is a human element at work, but just saying,”they’re more comfortable at home” does not get them any closer to solving the problem moving forward. There is a conceivable statistical explanation for the reason the Astros are very close to becoming the team with the worst road record to make the playoffs since the 1987 Minnesota Twins (who managed to win the World Series despite posting a .358 road win percentage).
Looking back over the last few years (going back to 2008), Houston shares two statistical similarities with other teams that have had the worst road records in their respective leagues — on-base percentage and save percentage.
The Astros have much better numbers than the others since every other team (as you would expect) finished last or second-to-last in their divisions. None of the others came anywhere close to posting a winning record. The next closest to this year’s Astros, in fact, was the 2014 Astros, who finished 12 games below .500.
But what sets them apart in this case isn’t as important as what makes them the same. What the Astros have in common with those other losing teams may hold the key to improving their chances for future success.
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Next: On-Base Percentage
On-Base Percentage
Sep 13, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Houston Astros right fielder
George Springer(4) rounds the bases after hitting a triple in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. The Astros won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Every team since 2008 that has posted their league’s worst road record has been in the bottom half of major league baseball in team on-base percentage except two — The 2012 Cleveland Indians (11th) and the 2014 Colorado Rockies (4th). But we are ignoring the Rockies because their offensive numbers are always great as a result of Coors Field and are not necessarily indicative of the kind of offense they actually have. Of the 16 teams I looked at, 12 were bottom 10 in the majors in on-base percentage.
The 2015 Astros are 21st.
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Now we’re breaking critical ground here. You have to get guys on base to score runs and win games. Yeah. Really. It’s right up there with “the team that scores the most points will win.”
But even on this very basic notion the Astros picture is out of whack with the other teams that could not win on the road. The Astros are much higher than the other teams in runs scored (9th) and abnormally high on home runs (2nd) and OPS (7th). One might be inclined to say they are actually okay on this front, but they are leaving so many runs on the field.
Houston is 12th in the majors in walks, but 26th in batting average and 2nd in strikeouts. Simply put, they do not have guys that can put the bat on the ball. When they do, they hit it far, but they don’t do it with nearly enough frequency.
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Next: Strikeouts
Strikeouts
May 21, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Houston Astros first baseman
Chris Carter(23) walks back to the dugout after striking out in the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Coming into the season, the Astros subscribed to the increasingly popular notion that strikeouts don’t matter because an out is an out is an out. And that might be true on an individual level, but when you build a lineup full of guys that struggle to put the bat on the ball, you run into problems. You simply can’t apply this principle to an entire roster. Someone has to be able to put the ball safely in play when it counts, and not just from a general philosophical standpoint.
More from Climbing Tal's Hill
- Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
- Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
- Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
- Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
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Having more players in the lineup who can hit to contact and can provide sustained scoring will provide more comfort, more confidence and less pressing in the lineup. It seems as though everyone in the lineup, especially on the road, is swinging like they are the last line of defense.
They have to know that they don’t need to hit home runs in every at-bat to win games. This goes for both the lineup construction for the front office, as well as the approach (if there is any) being preached by hitting coach Dave Hudgens.
There’s a reason why those high-walk/high-strikeout Athletics teams struggled to excel the playoffs. The Astros will have the same problem. Houston is going to have to start caring about strikeouts.
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Next: Save Percentage
Save percentage
Aug 29, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Houston Astros catcher
Hank Conger(16) talks to relief pitcher
Pat Neshek(37) in the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Houston Astros beat the Minnesota Twins 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
This is such a hard stat to nail down. Houston is 23rd in save percentage this year, right in line with the other can’t-win-on-the-road teams, where 13 of the 16 finished in the bottom 10 in their respective years. But, unlike most of those teams, the Astros appear to have a good bullpen.
Houston’s bullpen is 6th in ERA (3.20), 2nd in Batting Average Against (.216), 2nd in OPS against (.620), 1st in WHIP (1.09) and 4th in K/9 (9.04). Even their Defense-Independent ERA Ratio is respectable.
More from Climbing Tal's Hill
- Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
- Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
- Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
- Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
- Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer
All of this is to say there’s no logical reason why they shouldn’t be converting saves at a better rate than they are. Every indication is that they should be stronger at converting saves, except for Component ERA Ratio, where they are dead last in the majors. Congratulations, Bill James. You got it right again.
I wish I had a better idea of what that means for future decisions. Their bullpen is much improved over last year’s and is clearly a factor in their success, but sadly all I can say is they still have some work to do on that front. Maybe it’s entirely mental, and they don’t have the confidence to perform on the road when they know the offense can’t come up next to bail them out if they make a mistake. Hopefully there are people in the Astros front office who have a better grasp on why their good bullpen can’t buckle down when it matters most.