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Houston Astros: Is Carlos Correa a Lock for AL Rookie of the Year?

By Eric Huysman |
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Carlos Correa versus Fransisco Lindor for AL ROY

Sep 12, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) runs the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the sixth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

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When Carlos Correa made his debut this season in June, his impact was felt by the Houston Astros right away. Since his debut, you could say that Correa is the second best hitter on the team, with the honor going to Jose Altuve who has been consistent all season long. As Correa has passed his previous high in games played, his offensive impact has been silenced a little. Meanwhile, another Puerto Rican rookie shortstop has got better deeper into the season.

This shortstop is Francisco Lindor, who is currently leading the Indians back to a .500 record. While I still think Correa will win the award, Lindor who was drafted in the first round of the 2011 draft is making a name for himself. The age difference between the two players is about a year with Lindor almost 22-years-old and Correa almost 21-years-old. Lindor has more of the build for a true shortstop than Correa, but we will look at their defensive abilities in a little while.

Next: Hitting

Hitting

Sep 7, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) rounds the bases on a three-run home run against the Oakland Athletics during the seventh inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Stats by Fangraphs

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As you can see, Correa and Lindor have played about the same amount of games and plate appearances. Most of their offensive numbers are relatively similar with a few exceptions. Lindor appears to have a better ability to get on base based on his batting average and on-base average. Correa has yet to hit his first big league triple because he has more power, hitting ten more homers and driving in 15 more runs than Lindor and his three triples. Obviously with more homers, Correa has the higher slugging percentage that in turn gives him the higher OPS than Lindor.

While the batting average and OBP is impressive for Lindor, what most shortstops lack is the power. I will give Correa the win here.

Advantage: Correa

Next: Speed

Speed

Aug 26, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Jean Segura (9) takes a relay throw as Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) steals second base in the fourth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Stats from Fangraphs

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Both players have had the same success stealing bases in the major leagues, but the difference between the two players is that Correa has four more steals than Lindor. One of the things that Correa really worked on in the minor leagues is his stolen base game because people told him that he could not steal bases in the bigs.

According to Fangraphs, Lindor has a scouting ranking of 60 current and 60 future in terms of speed on the bases. Correa has a scouting ranking of 55 current and 50 future. While Lindor might have the better ability to run, the stats this season says that Correa has been more successful. Long term, Lindor might be better.

Advantage: Correa (barely)

Next: Defense

Defense

Sep 15, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) jumps over Texas Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor (12) as he turns a double play in the third inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Stats from Fangraphs.

Correa and Lindor are pretty close to even in every fielding stat from this season, except for Correa having 17 more assists. According to Fangraphs, Correa has a 50/55 current/future fielding scouting report, while Lindor has a 55/60 ranking. Lindor is the better fielder by the rankings, but Correa has the better arm. Correa has a 65/65 ranking with throwing arm while Lindor is 60/60. Because Lindor is built more like a shortstop, he might have the better range, but it’s too close to declare a winner here.

Advantage: Push

Next: WAR

WAR

Sep 5, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) hits a single in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Stats from Fangraphs.

Correa has the higher offensive WAR, but Lindor has the better defensive WAR. Something I learned this offseason is that Jose Altuve’s defensive WAR was lower than the other second baseman because of the high number of defensive shifts the Astros do. This explanation could be why Correa’s defensive WAR is so low because their stats are very similar. This reasoning could explain why Lindor has the higher overall WAR, because of the vast difference between the two defensive WAR.

Advantage: Lindor

Correa should still win the award, because of his power factor at a traditionally defensive-minded position in the majors. Correa should be the first Astros ROY Award winner since 1991 when Jeff Bagwell won it. Unless he flops in the final 17 games, he has earned the honor. He is the future for the Houston Astros and MLB, can’t wait to watch the next ten years or more.

Next: A Plea to Houston Astros Fans for Remaining Home Games

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