Houston Astros 2016 Pitching Rotation Options (Part 1)

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Overview

Aug 21, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher

Mike Fiers

(54) celebrates with teammates after pitching a no-hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Minute Maid Park. The Astros defeated the Dodgers 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros improved pitching rotation has been a major contribution to their 2015 turn around. The starting rotation ranked 19th in ERA in 2014, and this season the Astros starters are ranked 7th with a 3.61 ERA.

This article takes a look at what the Astros 2016 pitching rotation could look like. Part 1 will cover the Astros veteran staff and part 2 will cover the current and upcoming rookies. Below is a breakdown:

Dallas Keuchel

Aug 31, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches against the Seattle Mariners in the top of the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Player Overview and Stats

Dallas Keuchel, a seventh-round draft pick in 2009, has been part of the Astros rebuild since the beginning. The left-hander has become more polished each season and has established himself one of the league’s best aces. He recently won a franchise-record third AL Pitcher of the Month award. The two previous players to accomplish this feat, Johan Santana in 2004 and Jake Peavy in 2007, went on to win the Cy Young Award. He beat out multiple elite pitchers to start for the America League in this year’s All-Star game.

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Keuchel’s skill set is unique in that he’s not a flamethrower or strikeout machine (though those numbers are increasing). Keuchel uses a two-seam fastball just over 90mph. The 2014 Gold Glover winner has high ground ball rate that aligns with the Astros sabermetric thinking.

Contract Situation

Keuchel, who made just $525k this year, will go into this offseason eligible for arbitration for the first time. He remains eligible until 2019 when he becomes a free agent. According the Houston’s Chronicle Evan Drellich, the Astros and Keuchel have already begun contract negotiations and are looking to agree on an extension soon.

To give us an idea of what type of extension Keuchel is looking, below is a table of three pitchers recently in the same situation as Keuchel.

2015, Lance Lynn, Cardinals, 3-year, $22 million
2013 -> David Price, *Rays, 3-year $28.5 million
2012 -> Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 2-year $19 million

I doubt Keuchel can land more money that Price or Kershaw. However, I think he can beat out Lynn. A 3-year and $27 million dollars is potentially middle ground for both parties. If the parties can’t reach an agreement, they’ll head to arbitration. With Keuchel’s gold glove, all-star start, and potential Cy Young award, leverage will lean his way.

2016 Status and My Recommendation

Though the Astros have been extremely cautious in their financial decisions, they will make sure Keuchel is coming back as their starting ace next season.

Next: Scott Kazmir

Scott Kazmir

Sep 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (26) pitches against the Seattle Mariners in the second inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Player Overview and Stats

Out of work a few years ago, Scott Kazmir went out to pitch for the Sugar Land Skeeters. While there, Kazmir would retool his mechanics and made a return to the MLB in 2013. Playing with the Athletics last season, Kazmir posted a respectable 3.55 ERA. This season Kazmir has taken another leap in his game, posting a 2.38 ERA before the Astros made the steal of the trade deadline.

Contract Situation

Kazmir is currently in the final year of his contract and will become a free agent this offseason. His success over the past two seasons should land the left-hander some serious money.

2016 Status and My Recommendation

Kazmir is the hardest recommendation to make. I would love to have the Houston native return on a multiyear contract. However, I think the Astros get outbid by other teams. The Astros don’t need to get a bidding war considering the wealth of options they have for the 2016 season and beyond.

While Kazmir could be willing to take a hometown discount, he probably won’t, considering how hard he has had to work to get to the level he is at currently. If the Astros are able to retain him and get a quality deal, then he’d be welcomed back in the top of the rotation behind Keuchel.

Next: Colin McHugh

Collin McHugh

Sep 4, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Collin McHugh (31) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Player Overview and Stats

After claiming Collin McHugh off waivers in 2013, McHugh has provided two years of quality service. He led the team last year in ERA posting a 2.73 mark and held an 11-9 record. After posting a 4.50 ERA before the All-Start game, he has return to his 2014 form posting a 2.63 ERA with a 5-2 record. At 28 years old, he is nearing the prime of his career. A solid production from McHugh over the course of September could be one of the decided factors of who wins the AL West.

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Contract Situation

After making just over $500k this past season, McHugh along with Keuchel will be eligible for arbitration this offseason through 2020. Some sources are saying the Astros and McHugh are talking an extension as well. I think arbitration is more likely, here is a look of similar pitchers receiving extensions recently:

2013, Mat Latos, Reds, 2-year, $11.50 million
2015, Wade Miley, Red Sox, 3-year, $19.25 million

Considering the contracts above, McHugh could be looking at a 2-year and $14 million deal.

2016 Status and My Recommendation

McHugh success along with the Astros financial control should make signingMcHugh an obvious decision. Regarding of how the contract process works out (arbitration or extension), the Astros can add McHugh to their 2016 rotation.

Next: Scott Feldman

Scott Feldman

Aug 24, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Scott Feldman (46) pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Since signing with the Astros, Scott Feldman has provided a good service to the Astros. Despite a losing record last season, he posted a 3.74 ERA. This season he has battled through some injuries while posting a 3.90 ERA. Since coming off the DL after all star break, Feldman has posted 2.79 ERA.

Mike Fiers

Aug 29, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Mike Fiers (54) pitches in the fourth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Houston Astros beat the Minnesota Twins 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Player Overview and Stats

Honestly, I wasn’t a fan of the Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers trade at first. I thought Brett Phillips was too good of a prospect. But, Mike Fiers production has certainly made me appreciate the trade more. Mike Fiers threw the Astros first no-hitter since 2003 when the Astros combined multiple pitchers to blank the Yankees in New York.

In many ways, Fiers is similar to Scott Feldman. He has a below average heater with good location and off-speed pitches. Since traded to the Astros, Fiers has gone 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Over the course of his career, he has posted a 3.54 ERA.

Contract Situation

Just like Keuchel, Fiers is eligible for arbitration this offseason and does not become a free agent until 2019. Regardless of whether the Astros take Fiers to arbitration or give him an extension, the Astros are in a good place to retain Fiers next season for a good value. If we are looking at an extensive, I think he could be a two-year deal slightly less than McCough’s at $12 million.

2016 Status and My Recommendation

Mike Fiers will fit into Astros bottom part of the rotation and fill a better role that Scott Feldman has had over the past two years.

Next: Conclusion

Conclusion

Aug 5, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros manager

A.J. Hinch

(14) talks to his players in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

While the Astros lose Kazmir and Feldman, bringing back Keuchel, McHugh, and Fiers provide the Astros with three proven veterans. Next week will feature part 2 analyzing the Astros current and upcoming rookies.

Overview

Dallas Keuchel

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Scott Kazmir

Collin McHugh

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Scott Feldman

Mike Fiers

Conclusion

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Schedule