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Houston Astros: Can Dallas Keuchel reach 20 wins in 2015?
Can Dallas Keuchel reach 20 wins in 2015?
Aug 31, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches against the Seattle Mariners right fielder Nelson Cruz (23) in the top of the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Keuchel recently became the first Houston Astros pitcher to win the AL Pitcher of the Month award for the third time this season. If it weren’t for teammate Scott Kazmir winning the award in July, Keuchel would have won four straight pitcher of the month awards. Add this to the potential Golden Glove award that appears to have his name written all over it with his 62.5% groundball percentage. Keuchel already was named the starter for the All-Star game for the AL, and he is in discussion to be the AL Cy Young award winner.
The one thing not so clear though is if he will be able to reach 20 wins this season because wins are not always under the control of the starting pitcher. The offense has to be able to score runs which is something that this Astros team has struggled to do recently. Pitching eight innings of shutout ball doesn’t guarantee that the pitcher will get the win if the team doesn’t score any runs. Should Keuchel get the lead, he would the have to rely on the normally reliable bullpen, but there have been some leaks recently.
While Keuchel would have to pitch well to qualify for the win, many factors could get in his way. Keuchel is sitting at 16 wins so far, with less than a month in the season to go. Will he have enough time to get those four wins, let’s take a look at his possible opponents could be, but these could change if Astros stay on with a six-man rotation?
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Sunday, September 6: Minnesota Twins (Home)
Saturday, September 12, L.A. Angels (Away)
Wednesday, September 16, Texas Rangers (Away)
Tuesday, September 22, L.A. Angels (Home)
Monday, September 28, Seattle Mariners (Away)
That leaves Keuchel with between 4-5 starts between now and the end of the season. If he goes every fifth game, he is perfectly set up to pitch game one of a potential playoff series.
March/April: 3 Wins
May: 4 wins (Pitcher of the Month)
June: 3 wins (Pitcher of the Month)
July: 2 wins
August: 4 wins (Pitcher of the Month)
Keuchel has won four games in a month twice this season, but what he has going against him this time around is that he will be playing three of the remaining five games on the road. He has struggled at times on the road.
Home: 12-0 with a 1.35 ERA.
Road: 4-6 with a 3.35 ERA.
Next: Will Keuchel win 20?
Will Keuchel win 20?
Aug 31, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches against the Seattle Mariners in the top of the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
If I had to make a prediction, I would say that he will dominate against the Twins and Angels (2-0, 2.84 ERA) at home and to get to 18 wins for the season. Along the same thinking, Keuchel should get the win versus the Angels on the road as well, so he would have 19 wins.
The game versus the Rangers will be a pick-em game because while Kuechel has pitched well against them (1-0, 1.23 ERA), the Astros have struggled at Arlington recently. If Keuchel can slap them across the face and show the Rangers that they are not the Astros’ daddy, this is a winnable game.
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- Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
- Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
- Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer
The two teams that have semi-dominated Keuchel this year is the Mariners (1-1, 4.15 ERA) and the Blue Jays (1-0, 6.00 ERA). While he has gotten a win versus both teams, his ERA is higher against them. Plus, the Mariners with the help of Logan Morrison just came in a dominated the Astros winning two of three games at Minute Maid Park. I can see this game as a loss.
Doing the math, I see Keuchel winning 19 games, but could reach 20 wins just because he wills it so. He has a way of pitching well in big game situations, so he might step his game up versus the Rangers and Mariners. He could have to pitch on short rest in the last game of the season if the Astros are in a tie with the Rangers or for the wild card. The Astros better not put themselves in that predicament because they want Keuchel on the mound game one.
It will be a big step for Keuchel and the Astros organization to have a 20-game winner, which hasn’t happened since the Roy Oswalt early days. I am rooting for him and want to try to get out there during a Keuchel’s Korner game, maybe against the Angels.
The Texans have some small competition for viewership for Sunday’s games for the rest of the season. It’s good to have potential playoff baseball back in Houston, we only had to wait a decade for Crush City.