Astros Through 2/3 of Season: What MUST Happen in Final Third to Make Playoffs

Jun 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jonathan Villar (2) low fives right fielder George Springer (4) after the Astros defeated the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 6 to 4. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros are officially (a little more than) 2/3 of the way finished with the 2015 season. I tried to write this article after game #108 but couldn’t bring myself to write in the middle of that Rangers series mess.

So, here we are after the Astros have played 110 games and have a 61-49 record on the season. They lead the Los Angeles Angels by 2.5 games in the AL West and just got back to their winning ways with a wild late night victory over Oakland last night.

I wrote an article 56 games ago when the Astros had played exactly 54 games and made some predictions, so let’s check those out.

My Prediction Back Then: Astros will go 29-25 through the middle 54 games and have a 63-45 record after game #108.

• What Actually Happened: Astros went 26-28 through the middle 54 games and had a 60-48 record after game #108.

Ok so a lot has definitely happened in the last 54 games, but overall I wasn’t that far off. If the Astros had only 1 extra-inning loss in the last 54 and then picked a game up vs. the Rangers, I would have been perfect. But anyways, I was right about saying that the Astros would see Carlos Correa and Vincent Velasquez wearing an Astros uniform between the time I wrote that article and this one now. So, I’ll take a 1-1 record on predictions. Not too shabby.

That’s enough talking about my problems, so let’s look at how the Astros fell a bit in their most recent 54 games and what they must do in order to finish strong in 2015.

Next: Why the Astros went 26-28 from June 4 to August 4

Why Did the Astros Fall Off a Little?

Jun 30, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros right fielder George Springer (4) during the game against the Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The loss of George Springer. End of story…NOT SO FAST!!! In the middle 54 games, the Astros went 26-28. They were 13-14 with George Springer in the lineup and 13-14 without him. So, as much of a spark as Springer provides for the Astros, he wasn’t the key to the Astros minor slump. This is going to require some deeper investigation.

Here’s what happened in the last 54 games. Jake Marisnick didn’t hit nearly as well. The Astros’ center fielder hit .379 and .202 in April and May. That number dropped down to .143 in June and only back up to .204 in July. That’s a pretty big difference.

Next, Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter never really got their bats going, creating more issues in a Springer-less July lineup. Carter had a .109 July batting average (Ouch!) and Valbuena compiled a measly .213 mark along with a complete goose egg in the home run column.

In the bullpen, Luke Gregerson was only 8 for 11 in save situations during June and July compared to his 13 saves in 14 opportunities during April and May. Will Harris was no longer untouchable, as his batting average against rose from .103 in May to .250 in July. He was still really good, but not dominant. Chad Qualls also blew a couple games before heading to the DL and has pitched better since then.

Finally, the starting rotation went through a lot of mixing and matching in June and July. The addition of Scott Kazmir is very recent but moves were being made way before then. The Astros decided to give up on Brett Oberholtzer after he couldn’t keep his cool against the Yankees, Collin McHugh struggled for a few weeks before the All Star Break, and Lance McCullers had some expected rookie hiccups. Dallas Keuchel was the rock, starting in the All Star Game and consistently quieting opponents’ bats.

Next: Major Changes were made Between Now and Then

Keys for Astros in Playoff Push

Aug 1, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros center fielder Carlos Gomez (30) and left fielder Preston Tucker (20) celebrate shortstop Carlos Correa (1) two run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the sixth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

At 61-49, the Astros are still in great position to reach the postseason for the first time since 2005. A 2.5 game lead over the Angels isn’t overwhelming, but it’s still a division lead. The Astros are already 1-1 in the final 54-game leg of the 2015 season, and another 26-28 record won’t get it done down the stretch.

Key #1: Consistent Starting Pitching

• Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir must remain dominant at the top of the Astros’ rotation. It all starts at the top of the rotation in a playoff series.
• Collin McHugh: Just win, baby.
• Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez need to get back up to the MLB some time soon because they both are very talented and can help this team tremendously down the stretch. McCullers had a fumble on Monday night, but that one start certainly should not define his season.

Call to the Pen

Key #2: Lineup Holds Steady Until Springer Returns

• Altuve, Gomez, Correa is one of the best trios in baseball right now. That top of the order is scary good and must play that way for the Astros lineup to hit. When they go, the rest of the Astros go.
• SOMEONE PLEASE SOLVE THE FIRST BASE ISSUE!!!! Chris Carter is NOT the answer!
• Hank Conger and Jason Castro have hit very well in the last couple of weeks, and if they continue that trend, this lineup will be scary all the way down. Also, Conger really needs to work on throwing baserunners out. It’s almost like he’s giving them a free pass to second base now.

Key #3: A Shutdown Bullpen Must Be Born

• Just last night, Astros closer Luke Gregerson blew another save. The Astros will not be able to afford these blunders in a playoff series. Now that Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are off the market, this unit must stick together and make sure that any lead entering the 7th inning is very safe.
• Will Harris won’t be as dominant, so it will be important for guys like Pat Neshek, Josh Fields, and Tony Sipp to stay on top of their games for the rest of this season.

The next 54 games will definitely be crazy, but if the Astros can take care of the 3 tasks mentioned above, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the postseason.

Next: Predictions for the End of the Season

Predictions for the Final Third

Aug 1, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros catcher Hank Conger (16) celebrates with first baseman Chris Carter (23) , second baseman Jose Altuve (27), and shortstop Jed Lowrie (8) after hitting a slam home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fourth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The final 1/3 of the season for the Astros will include a large amount of games against divisional opponents in September, making them more crucial than ever.

The Astros are on pace to win 90 games this year, which means that they would need to go 29-23 in their next 52 games. This is definitely not an easy task for any team. With Springer out for all of August, it will be very tough for the Astros to take advantage of a nice, long home stand in the latter part of August.

The six games against Mike Trout and the Angels in September will be the most important of the Astros’ season and I’m looking for one of the middle-order guys like Jed Lowrie, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena, or Evan Gattis to have a clutch August/September and really be the difference in a postseason run for the Astros.

Keuchel will be named the AL Cy Young winner in just a few weeks and Carlos Correa will get AL Rookie of the Year. My only remaining concern is the bullpen. I have a lot of confidence in some of the middle relievers, but I’m just not very confident in the back-end guys.

As far as wins and losses are concerned, here’s my prediction:

Astros will go 28-24 in their final 52 games, finishing 89-73 for the season and claiming an AL West Title.

Next: Podcast: How Do the Astros Solve Road Woes?