Astros Rumors: Does Luhnow have to trade Appel and Phillips?

May 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow waves to the crowd before a game against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

If there was any doubt whether the Astros are buyers or sellers at the 2015 July 31st trade deadline, last nights win changed that. The Astros rumors are starting to intensify after a two-day hiatus. The Astros behind a shaky but effective Collin McHugh and an early injury to Chris Carter got the 3-2 win over the Rangers for the chance to go back ahead of the Angels in the AL West. Evan Drellich on the radio, on #AstrosChat with Andy Pondillo, and in his article feels very strongly that the Astros will make some trade. If they don’t, they will let the other players and fans down with so many holes on the roster when the team is in a good position to win this year.

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The question by most Astros fans is, do we have to give up any of the top 2015 draft picks or any of our top three players in Brett Phillips, Mark Appel, and A.J. Reed. I am not slighting any of the other prospects, and the Astros have one of the deepest systems in baseball. They may not have the top-20 talent, but they can go deeper than other teams in terms of overall talent. The Astros main needs for the future right now is at centerfield, first base, and starting pitching.

Sure, the Astros have needs at catcher and third base, but Colin Moran, Alex Bregman, or J.D. Davis could eventually take the job. I think the Astros will be set with Jacob Nottingham in next couple years, even though I’m still waiting for his interview.

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Next: Is Phillips untouchable?

Is Appel untouchable?

Oct. 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Mark Appel plays for the Salt River Rafters during an Arizona Fall League game against the Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Starting Rotation

Two of my Twitter friends the other day had a pretty extensive conversation on Mark Appel, and whether he should be traded straight up for Johnny Cueto. One of them said there is no way you are trading a first round pick for a two-month rental. The other guy said that you had to take the first round label away from Appel and look at his overall stats. He went on to say that the Reds would not do a straight up Appel for Cueto trade, so you can see how divided Astros fans are on trading Appel.

If you did trade Appel, do you have backups? Yes, they still have Vincent Velasquez, Josh Hader, Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove, and Daniel Mengden. Besides Velasquez, no one really has the ace stuff that Appel does, even though late bloomer Musgrove is starting to change peoples minds. Appels’ stock has dropped in the past few years with his struggles, but he still shows flashes of brilliance like he did in the All-Star Futures Game.

Could the former first overall pick just need a change of scenery, but he could also become the next Astros Curt Schilling. The Astros though they could do without him and traded him, the rest is history. I didn’t realize that Schilling went through three organizations in the minors (Bos, Bal, and Hou).

On a side note, Appel is one of the prospects who I would like to interview but haven’t had a chance yet. Mark, if you are reading this, I would like to interview you.

Appel’s 2015 stats (Baseball-Reference): 16 games/ 6-2 record/ 4.58 ERA/ 29 walks/ 60 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings.

Verdict:

I like everything about Appel and admire his faith, but maybe too much pressure was put on him, to be the guy for the Astros. I would not like to include him in a Cueto trade, but I don’t think it gets done otherwise. For Hamels or Ross, he might have to be included, but unless you are getting two players, I would not trade both Phillips and Appel.

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Next: Is Reed Untouchable?

Is Reed Untouchable?

AJ Reed (Photo Credit: Richard Guill)

First Base

Okay, many people will probably not agree with me, but unless Jon Singleton goes crazy while/if Chris Carter goes on the DL, A.J. Reed is the first baseman of the future. I see a baby Paul Goldschmidt when I look at his stats. He may not possess the speed that Goldy does, and he bats left-handed, but he does share some of the other tools. For another post, I will go deeper into this comparison because I really think it’s accurate.

Blake wrote about him Houston Astros: A.J. Reed is the next Mega Prospect, and I interviewed him here Keeping Up With the Houston Astros Prospects: A.J. Reed. Do we have backups? Yes, but they are not on the same caliber of Reed.

Matt Duffy

Currently at Triple-A, but is held back by the roster spot of Chris Carter. In the 2015 season, Duffy has a .288/ .351/ .453/ .804 slash line with 11 home runs and 66 RBIs. While he has had a good minor league career, he is not a top prospect. Once the Astros decide to cut the cord on Carter, he will be up.

Conrad Gregor

Gregor is currently at Double-A after being drafted in 2013 in the same draft as current top prospect Tony Kemp, he has a slash line of .248/ .343/ .367/ .710 with four homers and 42 RBIs. I interviewed Gregor here. Leading Off First with Conrad Gregor (w/Interview).

The Astros will give Singleton every possibility to get him going because they got him to extend his contract. Was it a mistake to offer a player who had not played one game an extension like that? Maybe he has put too much pressure on himself to earn the contract, and it has created a mental block that causes him to struggle in the majors.

Reed’s 2015 stats (Baseball-Reference): 330 AB/ .342 AVG/ 77 Runs/ 23 HR/ 83 RBI/ 0 SB/ 1.072 OPS.

Verdict

I am not saying that Reed is untouchable, but his potential in a weak position in the Astros system could make him so. I can’t see any deal where the Astros would have to give up Reed in a trade unless it’s to get Goldy himself. Just pulling your leg, we all know that Goldy will go to the Yankees to finish out his career once he’s done with Arizona. Also, I doubt too many people outside of Houston know who Reed is. (I’m kidding, everyone does)

Follow along with a fake trade discussion between Luhnow and Jocketty. Faux Astros trade discussion between Luhnow and Reds’ Jocketty

Tell us what you think below.

Next: Houston Astros: Is an offseason ace addition in Luhnow’s hand?

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