Houston Astros Second Half Preview and Predictions

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In the ten games since George Springer landed on the DL, the Astros have eight losses. In those eight losses, the team has scored a combined 12 runs.

Ouch.

No team needed the All-Star break more than the Houston Astros. The team limped into the break, both figuratively and literally. The comfortable AL West lead that the Astros maintained for nearly three months vanished in a week. That’s baseball. A 162-game season is best described as a roller coaster, and Astros fans were having a blast on the ride until they were left hanging upside down at the break, wondering what’s going to happen next.

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After 91 games, the Astros are 49-42. We’re midway through July, and the Astros are TWO wins shy of the win total of the 2013 Houston Astros. And although that note is more of a testament to how historically bad the Astros have been, the organization has come a long way in a short period. Still, the team has shown some glaring holes that are not going to be solved within the Astros’ system this year.

Trade Deadline

Jul 1, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher

Johnny Cueto

throws against the Minnesota Twins in the second inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

According to FanGraphs, the Astros still have a 56.2% chance of making the playoffs as a wild card or division winner.

For that reason, this trade deadline is going to be very interesting. For the first time in the Jeff Luhnow era, the Astros won’t be sellers, but does that automatically make them buyers? The team is “ahead of schedule,” but does that mean they shouldn’t try to better themselves when they have a serious shot to contend?

Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh are a solid one-two punch, but Lance McCullers and the Astros will likely deal with an innings limit debate much like the one 2012 Stephen Strasburg faced with the Washington Nationals. Vincent Velasquez has already seen his innings restricted before the break because of his injury history. Scott Feldman should have a spot when he returns, but the Astros’ fifth spot seems to be up for grabs, unless of course a move is made.

Trades hurt – as they should – especially when they are made at the deadline. Imagine, though, a combination of Dallas Keuchel, (insert your favorite ace on a losing team), and Collin McHugh starting the first three games of a playoff series. A veteran pitcher will undoubtedly cost some combination of elite prospects or a string of lesser prospects, but may be the key piece in a successful playoff run.

Although the starting rotation is the buzz of most trade rumors, it is not the team’s biggest need at the moment. The offense, which was a strength early in the season, has suddenly become a weakness. When Jed Lowrie and George Springer return, it will be the equivalent of a blockbuster trade for the team and the line-up, but how long can the team afford to wait? I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros promote a player like Tony Kemp or trade one of the boom-or-bust sluggers creating a logjam in the current line-up for a player that gets on base more often.

Next: Finding an identity

Finding an identity

Apr 19, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros right fielder George Springer (4) and shortstop Jed Lowrie (8) celebrate after defeating the Los Angeles Angels 4-3 at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The media and fans alike spent the first half of the season (rightfully so) asking, “Are the Astros the real deal?” “Can they sustain this pace?”

Yes, the Astros are the real deal. No, they aren’t as bad as they have been in the month of July. One bad month does not define or necessarily doom a team, but to help ease the pain of this month’s hitting woes, take a look at this potential line-up when Jed Lowrie and George Springer return from the DL:

Jul 3, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop

Carlos Correa

(1) congratulates second baseman

Jose Altuve

(27) after scoring a run during the fourth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

George Springer – RF
Jose Altuve – 2B
Carlos Correa – SS
Evan Gattis – DH
Luis Valbuena – 3B
Jed Lowrie – 1B
Preston Tucker/Colby Rasmus – LF
Castro/ Conger – C
Jake Marisnick – CF

See? Not so bad.

In the midst of all of this, the team and organization may have to make a decision on the all-or-nothing attack that has so often been identified with the 2015 Astros to this point. The team has hit 124 home runs this year — most in the league, and more than twice as many as the Atlanta Braves, 57; Philadelphia Phillies, 59; and Chicago White Sox, 60. They have also struck out 838 times while no other team has 800 strikeouts, and the Kansas City Royals have only struck out 501 times.

To this point, the Astros have shown they are just as capable of hitting four home runs in a game as they are incapable at times of making productive contact to move a runner from second to third with no outs.

So what happens for the Astros from here on out? That will largely depend on the team’s activity at the trade deadline and the health of young players experiencing the grind of a 162-game season.

If the Astros make a trade for a veteran pitcher to complement Dallas Keuchel, they will have one of the strongest starting rotations in the AL, but I believe they can survive without. If George Springer and Jed Lowrie return sooner rather than later, they will again have one of the most dangerous lineups in all of baseball.

Predictions

The 2015 Astros are a very difficult team to predict right now. There are inevitably going to be more ups, downs, and growing pains, but it’s going to be fun to watch. We’re going to see Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers battle it out as teammates for the award of AL Rookie of the Year , cheer loudly in “Keuchel’s Korner” as the ace makes his case to be the AL Cy Young award winner, and call for the head of Chris Carter.

Get excited, Astros fans; this is the tip of the iceberg and likely the least consistent team you’re going to see for a long time.

W-L: 88-74, Wild Card
Team MVP: Dallas Keuchel
Offensive MVP: Jose Altuve. I chose George Springer as my first-half offensive MVP, but Jose Altuve is returning to form after an uncharacteristic June, and that momentum should carry on throughout the rest of the season.
Bold Prediction: Mark Appel will pitch in a playoff game for Houston in October.

Next: Will Tony Kemp Join the Houston Astros Soon?

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