The Houston Astros definitely will have some choices to make as the July 31st Trade Deadline approaches. The Astros have prospects to unload, needs to fill, and pieces to add in a few different spots. While scanning through some potential targets at starting pitcher, a definite need for the Astros, I looked at Scott Kazmir and immediately thought that he should not be on that list.
Yes, there are some compelling arguments for why Scott Kazmir would be a perfect fit in Houston. Eric even wrote about some earlier today. First, he’s a really good pitcher. Second, he’s a hometown guy who would like to pitch for the Astros (opposite of Cole Hamels). He also has a great comeback story to his name, after he became a complete headcase and was pitching for the Sugar Land Skeeters not too long ago. Returning to the city that helped him so much on his long road back to the MLB would be great for him and a nice headline to follow for Astros fans.
Many top MLB analysts believe that Scott Kazmir is the perfect fit for the Astros at this point and is destined to head to Houston at some time in his career. But, is he really the right guy for the Astros organization right now? I don’t think so, and here is why.
Next: Beware of Trades Within Division
The Golden Rule: Beware of Trades Within Division
May 20, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Oakland Athletics first base coach Tye Waller (46) talks with Houston Astros third base coach
(10) at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
As it stands right now, The Oakland A’s are 10.5 games back of your AL West division leaders, the Houston Astros. Now this may seem like a pretty large lead, but in the grand scheme of the season, it’s really not.
Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Athletics, knows better than anyone that a team can get hot right before or after the All-Star break and that momentum can carry them into a postseason push through August and September. Plus, there are some studies that say the Oakland A’s are greatly underperforming so far this season.
There have been debates for decades now about trading within your own division and whether there really should be a negative stigma around it. In my opinion, it really depends on the scenario.
For example, back when the Astros traded Jed Lowrie to Oakland in February of 2013, I thought it was the right move at the right time in Houston. GM Jeff Luhnow liked Lowrie, but was trying to revamp the minor league system while adding some pieces at the major league level, and really wasn’t leaving anyone off the market. That was a move made long before the season had begun before a division race had even started.
If the Astros would have traded for Scott Kazmir this past offseason, I probably would have been alright with the move. But now, in the middle of July, I think it’s way too dicey. First of all, I think the price would be a little steeper right now. If we’re going to have to dish out some seriously talented prospects, we should probably wait until the waters calm down a bit. We don’t want to let Mark Appel, Domingo Santana, or Brett Phillips become regular Astros killers down the road if we don’t have to let them go.
Also, why rent Scott Kazmir for some prospects, even if they aren’t top-tier when he’ll be a free agent in just a few months. The Astros don’t want to see some of their prospects playing against them when they can get Kazmir in a few months without giving anyone up. And if you’re going to trade major league guys for Kazmir, you don’t want them to be a part of the unforgettable Oakland Athletics run in August and September that knocks the Astros out of first place and out of the playoffs. Not that I want that to happen, but this is baseball, and we all know that nothing is out of the question in today’s game.
Next: Kazmir Historically Better in First Half
Scott Kazmir Has Yet to Become a Clutch Pitcher Down the Stretch
May 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (26) pitches the ball against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
In Scott Kazmir’s nine-year MLB career, he has been fortunate enough to play on some very good teams. He has been a part of many pushes to the postseason and even pitched in a few postseason games. He pitched in the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 run to the World Series and then pitched for the Los Angeles Angels in the 2009 postseason. He also was a critical arm down the stretch for Oakland last season, but the A’s didn’t really make the postseason (lost to KC in Wild Card Game). Although Kazmir has had the valuable experience, he hasn’t always pitched to his full capability down the stretch.
Let’s take a look at Kazmir’s numbers in the postseason first. In the unbelievable 2008 playoff run that the Rays made, Kazmir started five postseason games and posted a 4.07 ERA while also allowing 26 hits and giving up 18 walks in 25 2/3 innings pitched. He had a 1-1 record in those five games.
Some might say to give Kazmir a pass because that season was his first experience in the postseason. Ok, so let’s look to next year with the Angels. Kazmir posted a 7.60 ERA in 10 2/3 innings pitched. He started one game apiece in the ALDS and ALCS, losing his matchup in the ALCS. So, Scott Kazmir regressed during his second stint in the postseason.
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Now others might give him another pass and say that his head wasn’t in the right place, and now after spending some time out of baseball he will have a more focused and clear head in the postseason. Kazmir hasn’t pitched in the postseason since his one-year absence, but let’s check his numbers in the postseason push with Oakland.
Looking at the 11 starts he made after the trade deadline, Kazmir carried a 2.37 ERA going into his start on August 3, 2014. By his last pitch on September 26, that ERA had risen to 3.55, and the A’s had lost their division lead. When you compare that ERA to his 1st half, the numbers are telling. Kazmir’s ERA never rose above 2.66 before July 31st, so there’s a definite contrast there. The strikeout numbers dropped a little bit as well, as it was common for Kazmir to have a game where he would strike out eight, nine, or 10 batters in the 1st half of the season. In August, Kazmir didn’t go above six Ks in any of his six starts.
I’m not saying that Scott Kazmir has no potential to be a quality postseason pitcher, but the numbers do reveal some real discrepancies that the Astros might want to consider before pulling the trigger on a rental deal that’s meant to push the team into the postseason, not shut them out.
Next: Why Deplete the Farm System?
Why Deplete the MLB’s Best Minor League System?
Jun 6, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Houston Astros starting pitcher
(14) during the fourth inning in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The Toronto Blue Jays won 7-2. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
When talking about possible trades, for any player, Astros fans and management have to be realistic. As great as this run has been so far, did we really expect it? I definitely would say no that. Last season, Sports Illustrated called the Astros the 2017 World Series Champions. Ever since then, I think a lot of Astros fans have bought into that motto. This team is competing really well right now, better than anyone could have projected, but it’s scary to think how good they will be in the years to come.
Ever since Jim Crane bought the team and brought Jeff Luhnow on board to handle baseball operations, this organization has been built from the minor leagues on up. The Astros now without a doubt have the best farm system in baseball and are poised to see all of their top prospects in the majors in the next couple of years. I know I’m going on a bit of a narrative here, but I’ve got a point.
The players down at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno have been winning together for a few years now, and have a nice routine and winning culture in place. As an Astros fan, I wouldn’t want to see that get broken up because of a 2015 Astros team that’s playing out of their minds and reaching the point that Astros fans thought this team would reach two-or-three years from now.
From an Astros fan who’s been following this team since they hit rock bottom, I want to see Jeff Luhnow’s masterpiece come into place. I want to see guys like Tony Kemp, Mark Appel, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana wearing an Astros uniform for many years to come along with the players who are already great on the Astros.
Carlos Correa, George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Dallas Keuchel mixed in with the top prospects we have on the way is a dangerous machine that doesn’t need to be broken apart and re-assembled just to lease a pitcher for a few months. No offense to Scott Kazmir, I think he’s a great pitcher for the A’s and would love to see him pitch for the Houston Astros. But don’t worry, we’ll get him in free agency.
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