(23) is congratulated after hitting a three-run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the bottom of the sixth inning at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 6 to 5. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
The Houston Astros now have the best record in the American League with a 24-13 record. This record is good considering the Astros were predicted to finish last in the league in 2015. While the Astros did show signs of improving last year, no one predicted the Astros would be where they are right now. The season is not over, but most experts predicted the Astros finish around .500 in 2015, then make a big jump in 2016-2017.
I thought it was time to look at each offseason moves, remind you what Jeff Luhnow’s ideas were, and how these moves have impacted the Astros success in 2015. The original post can be found here, but I will use many of the quotes from that post. I was able to take part in a Bloggers Roundtable, in which we were able to sit down with Reid Ryan, Jeff Luhnow, and A.J. Hinch. We were able to ask questions about the offseason moves and the future of the Astros.
Here was Jeff Luhnow’s opening statement at the roundtable.
Jeff Luhnow stated “it’s been a fairly active offseason so far and definitely my busiest since joining the Astros.” Here are the Astros offseason transactions that Luhnow summarized in his offseason State of the Union recap.
Apr 12, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Astros catcher Hank Conger (16) reacts after being splashed with water by him teammates after hitting a home run in the 14th inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Houston won 6-4 in 14 innings. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
The first thing that Luhnow talked about was the Hank Conger trade and how it was probably a “potentially confusing move” for most fans about why the Astros added the third catcher. “You have to have at least three major league ready catchers in case of injuries.” He stressed “you can’t judge an offseason or understand an offseason until it is over. This move was the first of many moves this offseason.”
The deal happened pretty quickly after the mutual desires came to light. Jeff said that Astros fans will grow to like Hank, not only as a baseball player, but as a person. “He’s a real character.”
The first praise for Conger was that he was one of the best pitch framers in the game. The Astros felt so good about his skills; they gave up Nick Tropeano and Carlos Perez.
Now:
Conger so far has played in eleven of the Astros 37 games so far the season. His slash line is .185/ .333/ .407/ .741 while hitting two home runs and three RBI’s. He has struck out eleven times in 34 plate appearances, which represents a 32% strikeout percentage. He was walked six times.
The most memorable Hank Conger moment has to be his game-winning home run versus the Rangers. He has made some mistakes behind the plate, which don’t normally show up in the box scores. While he only has one error, he has only caught about 31% of would-be base stealers. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Carlos Perez is the biggest loss for the Astros so far, as he has become a semi-regular in the Angels lineup recently, with a slash line of .280/ .269/.440/ .709 in seven games. He was a big factor in the Astros versus Angels series. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Nick Tropeano has only pitched in one game for the Angels, but it was a good one. He pitched six innings, giving up zero runs while striking out five batters in the win. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
Could change, but right now I would have to give this transaction an F, even though the Astros still have faith in him.
Next: Will Harris
Will Harris
Apr 25, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Will Harris (36) pitches during the ninth inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
Shortly after the Conger trade, the Astros made a claim on Will Harris from the Diamondbacks. Luhnow said, “moves are always validated by me if after I do the deal, other GM’s call and ask about the player. I got several calls about Harris. He has value to us and other teams.”
Luhnow also mentioned that the local bloggers in Houston have a better idea as to the value of Will Harris than the casual fan or national media. He represents a quality major league arm that will help the Astros not lose the close games after the starter leaves.
“We wanted to build up bullpen depth. So we are not forced into putting young players with no experience in the position of taking important innings.”
Will Harris has looked great in the Astros highly ranked bullpen. Harris has pitched in 14 games while finishing the game six times. Not as a closer, but the person who pitches the last inning of the game. When
was ready, the Astros didn’t want to demote Harris, so they made a change and went with 13 pitchers on the 25-man roster. His pitching line is 1-0/ .50 ERA/ 18 IP/ 1 ER on an HR/ 24 strikeouts. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
His most memorable game was this past Friday’s win versus the Blue Jays when Dallas Keuchel was off his game. He left in the seventh inning after two hitters have reached base in a close game at the time. Harris comes on and retires the next three hitters to keep the lead for the Astros. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
The bullpen has been a strength of the bullpen, so I would give this move an A. At the time, I don’t think anyone could have predicted Harris’s success.
(15) and relief pitcher Luke Gregerson (44) celebrate after defeating the Los Angeles Angels 4-3 at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
Luhnow said that when the opportunities arose to get both Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek in one swoop, they jumped on it. In fact, Luhnow described the situation where one agent was supposed to come up to the Astros suite at 10:00 pm and the other at 10:45 pm. Both agents ended up riding in the elevator at the same time.
“Chad Qualls could not have been better or more cooperative or more helpful. He has played with both those players” Luhnow said. Qualls was very unselfish and jumped in to help recruit Gregerson and Neshek. Instead of caring about losing saves to one or both, “Qualls cared about having a winning team.”
“I have heard criticism; you’re not a good team yet, why improve bullpen? You can’t be a good team giving up the lead late in games.” Luhnow believes that the Astros must have a strong bullpen to become a better all-around team in 2015.
Apr 14, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Pat Neshek (37) delivers a pitch during the seventh inning against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
While they have had their moments when they were unproductive, as a whole Neshek and Gregerson have been the glue that holds the bullpen together. It was probably a good thing that most of these players have played together before because their chemistry in the bullpen has been excellent.
Luke Gregerson: 2-0/ 3.38 ERA/ 9 saves/ 13 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Pat Neshek: 3-0/ 3.14 ERA/ 0 saves/ 14 strikeouts in 14.1 innings pitched. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
Top closer target David Robertson declined the Astros contract offer and is probably regretting it with the Astros success. Had the Astros signed Robertson, they would not have had the money to add both the relievers. They were able to BOGO two relievers for the price of one, no buyers regret there by Jeff Luhnow. The Astros get an A for this move as well. Chad Qualls has been rewarded with a few saves this season, so this is a win-win for all parties involved.
Next: Jed Lowrie
Jed Lowrie
Apr 27, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jed Lowrie (right) hits a solo home run in front of San Diego Padres catcher
(3) during the fourth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
Why give Lowrie a three-year deal when you have Carlos Correaknocking on the door? “It takes three years to get a player like Jed who is a free agent for the first time,” Luhnow said. “Quite frankly, 3-years from now if Jed is the super utility player on a playoff team, that’s pretty good.”
Lowrie will be the starter now, but when the super prospects Carlos Correa and Colin Moran arrive, Lowrie will still have a place on a good team similar to a player like Marco Scutaro. When Correa and Moran are ready, they will not be blocked by Lowrie or Valbuena.
Jed Lowrie was one of the key reasons for the Astros success this season. However, Lowrie slid awkwardly at home plate during the Astros ten-game winning streak. With that slide, he tore his UCL in right thumb, which will cause him to miss games until after the All-Star break. When Lowrie went out, the Astros lost a consistent producer at shortstop, which could lead to Correa’s early debut in 2015.
Before the injury, Lowrie had a slash line of .300/ .432/ .567/ .999. He has scored eleven runs, hit four home runs, and ten RBI’s in 18 games. Lowrie has struck out 15 times in 74 plate appearances, which represents a 20% strikeout percentage. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
Even with the unfortunate injury to Lowrie, I would still give the Lowrie addition an A because he literally carried the team while the sluggers struggled at the beginning of the season. Some might argue that had the Astros not signed Lowrie, Correa would have been called up sooner. This was disproven when Lowrie’s injury occurred, Correa was not automatically called up.
Next: Evan Gattis and James Hoyt
Evan Gattis and James Hoyt
Apr 29, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Evan Gattis (11) singles during the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
“They ask for the moon right out of the gate, which they should do.” There were two other teams involved in possible trades, “but they liked our guys better.” In baseball, you have to give up talent to get talent. “It came at a cost for sure. We don’t trade these guys because they are not good, we trade them because they are good! They help us get something that we need right now.”
The addition of Gattis brings a premium power bat to the lineup with years under control. “Gattis jerseys in the team store will quickly become a fan favorite in Houston.
“The sleeper in the deal was the pitcher I received in the deal, James Hoyt, who was added at the last-minute” on purpose by Luhnow because he didn’t want to show his hand until the end. He has a plus arm, and demonstrated that in Dominican Winter League.
Now:
Live Feed class=inline-text id=inline-text-7Astros have return date in mind for ace Justin Verlander /
Gattis has had an up and down season. Despite a strong spring training, but struggled at the early stages of the season. He had the look of a player who forgot how to hit at times, this was probably from him trying to press too much to impress his new fans. While many fans soured on Gattis and Chris Carter with their performance this year, other fans were wanting to be patient with what he cost the Astros to get Gattis. The Astros gave a package of three prospects for Gattis, which none of them have really made an impact on the big league level yet for the Atlanta Braves.
The Astros have also been patient with Gattis, and not panicking with his slow start. Gattis has a slash line of .194/.217/ .403/ .620. Despite the obvious struggles with his slash line, Gattis has still hit seven homers while driving in 20 runs. One plus for Gattis is that he struck out at a 26% rate, 34 strikeouts in 129 plate appearances, which has improved from earlier in the season. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
The problem with the trade that brought Gattis over was that they already had a player similar to Gattis in Chris Carter. Gattis never learned how to play first base, and rarely gets the chance to play in left field. This acquisition can change pretty quickly if Gattis gets going with the bat, which he has done a little more recently. The mistake was made was when the got Gattis, they did not immediately trade Carter while he had some value. I give this trade a C, but could turn into an B with improved play by Gattis.
Next: Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily
Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily
May 13, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Luis Valbuena (18) bats in the eighth inning agains the San Francisco Giants at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 4 to 3. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
Because Luhnow knew that the Astros could get Colby Rasmus to sign by trading Fowler to free up the money, Luhnow felt like the two deals happened simultaneously. “We were able to turn Fowler plus some cash for into Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena, and Dan Straily.”
Luhnow was able to get someone to compete with Matt Dominguez at third base. Luhnow was discussing how everyone was getting excited predicting all the home runs each player would hit, and he made an interesting comment. “Valbuena would hit 15 home runs and Dominguez would hit 15 home runs if they share that role.”
He was also able to get a candidate for the rotation with serious rebound potential with the instruction that the Astros coaches offer in Dan Straily.
It’s funny how the Astros thought that Dominguez and Valbuena would be platoon partners, but Dominguez did the Astros a favor by not showing up in spring training. Valbuena played great defense at third base while hitting nine home runs and 15 home runs. Despite leading the club in homers, the rest of his slash line is unimpressive .205/ .269/.447/ .716. The only stat that salvaged Valbuena’s stat line is he slugging percentage with the nine homers. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Valbuena has been streaky so far this year at the plate but has remained consistent on defense, which has lead to the great record. When Valbuena makes contact, the ball goes really far. However overall, he needs to make better contact at the plate to avoid the unproductive pop-up that he falls victim to. Valbuena has struck out 33 times in 145 plate appearances on the season, which is a 23% strikeout rate.
Dan Straily has been very unimpressive at Triple-A, is viewed as a depth option, but has not gotten the call despite the many needs for a starting pitcher. The Astros continue to have issues with a 5th spot in the rotation, but the Astros have reached Double-A to call upon a rookie pitcher to make his debut instead of Straily.
Meanwhile, Fowler has a slash line of .275/ .357/ .420/ .777 with the Cubs while hitting three homers and ten RBI’s. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
The Astros had a desperate need for third base with Matt Dominguez’s regression in 2014. The Astros system is loaded with outfielders, so Fowler was expendable to the Astros. While I’m not sure Valbuena is the long-term answer at third base, he has been a good pickup for the 2015 Astros. I would give the Astros an B for this trade because he has filled in a need this season.
Next: Colby Rasmus
Colby Rasmus
May 16, 2015; Houston, TX, USA. Houston Astros left fielder Colby Rasmus (28) got a base hit against the Toronto Blue Jays in the bottom of the sixth inning at Minute Maid Park. Astros won 6 to 5. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Then:
Jeff Luhnow drafted Colby Rasmus when he was with the Cardinals. He had been in contact with Rasmus throughout the offseason but explained that he didn’t have the money or a position open to signing him. “Yeah I would love to have Colby and for him to have a big year for us.” By trading Dexter Fowler, he was able to sign Colby Rasmus. Luhnow, while he was playing the prediction game said, “I can get 25 maybe 30 home runs from Colby” in 2015.
Luhnow understands that Rasmus might just be here for 2015, “hopefully Rasmus will have a great season for the Astros to reestablish himself for his next contract.” Rasmus hit 18 home runs while batting 0.240 last year for the Blue Jays, so Luhnow does feel like he will not just, “add home runs but will also increase run production.”
are ready to produce. There is very little chance that Rasmus is on the team in 2016, but his slash line is .234/ .299/ .477/ .776. Like most of the Astros hitters, his on-base and batting average is low. However, the strength of this team is in their slugging percentages, so Rasmus’s six home runs have added to his cause. The Astros are leading the league in home runs. (Stats from Baseball-Reference)
Grade:
I still don’t get this free agent signing, but he has been serviceable this year in the Astros lineup. The Astros have won and lost on the long ball this season, so I would give this acquisition a B grade. Rasmus gets this grade because he can serve as the fourth outfielder now that Preston Tucker appears to be here to stay.
Summary
Overall, all the trades or signings have helped the Astros be where they are right now. The Astros may strike out a lot, 343 times so far together. They rank first in strikeouts, ahead of Tampa Bay, which have 303 strikeouts. With the Astros pitching so effectively, the Astros have found ways to get the big hit when needed to win the game. The Astros don’t always get a hit, but when they do it’s an extra base hit.
Jeff Luhnow has gone beyond Moneyball thinking and created the Luhnow way of winning with pitching and timely power. Can the Astros continue their winning ways all season, which is to be seen? This method is now the Astros way of winning, which looks superb on manager A.J. Hunch’s record. Overall I would give he Astros an A in offseason movement because they have had a quick rebound from last season.
%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20viewBox%3D%220%200%201055.1%20200%22%20style%3D%22enable-background%3Anew%200%200%201055.1%20200%3B%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cstyle%20type%3D%22text%2Fcss%22%3E%0A%09.st0%7Bfill%3A%23231F20%3B%7D%0A%09.st1%7Bfill%3A%230E203C%3B%7D%0A%09.st2%7Bfill%3A%23EC4324%3B%7D%0A%09.st3%7Bfill%3A%23FFFFFF%3B%7D%0A%3C%2Fstyle%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Template%22%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3Cg%20id%3D%22Layer_2%22%3E%0A%09%3Cpath%20class%3D%22st3%22%20d%3D%22M58.3%2C200.3h82.4c12.4%2C0%2C21.7-1.5%2C28-4.5c20.2-9.6%2C30.2-26.1%2C30.2-49.3c0-3.2-0.2-9.3-0.6-18.3h-65.1v14.9%0A%09%09c-0.9%2C3.9-3.4%2C5.8-7.5%2C5.8H73.2c-5%2C0-7.5-2.5-7.5-7.5V59.2c0-5%2C2.5-7.5%2C7.5-7.5h52.5c5%2C0%2C7.5%2C2.1%2C7.5%2C6.4v10.8h65.7V55.7%0A%09%09c0-16.3-3.8-28.3-11.4-36.1c-8.8-12.9-24.7-19.3-47.4-19.3H58.9C47%2C0.3%2C38%2C1.7%2C32%2C4.3c-21.3%2C9-32%2C26.1-32%2C51.4v88%0A%09%09c0%2C16.5%2C3.6%2C28.7%2C10.9%2C36.6C20.1%2C193.7%2C35.9%2C200.3%2C58.3%2C200.3z%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22596.6%2C64%20596.6%2C0.8%20400.1%2C0.8%20400.1%2C64%20442.7%2C64%20442.7%2C51.3%20466.1%2C51.3%20466.1%2C148.1%20442.1%2C148.1%20%0A%09%09442.1%2C199.9%20554.8%2C199.9%20554.8%2C148.1%20531.5%2C148.1%20531.5%2C51.4%20554.8%2C51.4%20554.8%2C64%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st3%22%20points%3D%22942.4%2C148.5%20942.4%2C200.2%201055.1%2C200.2%201055.1%2C148.5%201031.8%2C148.5%201031.8%2C51.2%201055.1%2C51.2%201055.1%2C0.8%20%0A%09%09943.1%2C0.8%20943.1%2C51.3%20966.3%2C51.3%20966.3%2C80%20888.9%2C80%20888.9%2C51.3%20912.6%2C51.3%20912.6%2C0.5%20800.1%2C0.8%20800.1%2C51.4%20823.5%2C51.4%20823.5%2C148.6%20%0A%09%09800.1%2C148.6%20800.1%2C200.1%20912.6%2C200.1%20912.6%2C148.6%20888.9%2C148.6%20888.9%2C116.4%20966.3%2C116.4%20966.3%2C148.5%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st2%22%20points%3D%22315.5%2C83.9%20299.6%2C34.9%20283.7%2C83.9%20232.2%2C83.9%20273.9%2C114.1%20258%2C163.1%20299.6%2C132.8%20341.3%2C163.1%20%0A%09%09325.4%2C114.1%20367%2C83.9%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%09%3Cpolygon%20class%3D%22st2%22%20points%3D%22715.6%2C83.9%20699.7%2C34.9%20683.8%2C83.9%20632.3%2C83.9%20674%2C114.1%20658%2C163.1%20699.7%2C132.8%20741.3%2C163.1%20%0A%09%09725.4%2C114.1%20767.1%2C83.9%20%09%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fg%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
