When I heard the Astros number for the Bovada Las Vegas over/under I was a little unhappy. I realized that the Astros have been a pushover for more than a few seasons now. But with all the offseason moves and a strong finish in 2014, I feel that a 73.5 figure is way too low. This post will conclude with a Google Form and an over/under – revised by the staff here at Climbing Tal’s Hill as well as a few people that I asked.
Everybody knows that the Houston Astros have been through a large amount of change in the last four seasons. A pair of 100-loss seasons in 2011 and 2012 finally bottomed out in their first season in the American League.
That 51-111 is only bested, in terms of losing, by the 2003 Detroit Tigers – they lost a whopping 119 games! The next season saw them make a huge improvement to the 72-90 mark. The Tigers actually failed to make the postseason again in 2005 but found winning ways for the 2006 season. That year saw them win 95 games.
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Many experts, though perhaps not quick to point to the Tigers, expect that the Astros are still 2 or 3 years away from making any reasonable bid for the postseason. While the expected win total here at Climbing Tal’s Hill ultimately does fall shy of any hope for October baseball, I do believe that it’s a much more realistic scenario than that sportsbook at Bovada.
Here are the data (Climbing Tal’s Hill writers are noted by name, other respondents marked anonymous)
- Ryan Gonzalez – 87
- Kennon Riley – 86
- Jason Burke – 85
- Eric Huysman – 83
- Thomas O’Banion – 83
- Issa Cook – 81
The six of us combined to an expected win total of 84.167 – much higher than the Bovada line. I think that it’s probably a reasonable expectation for the team to fall somewhere within the 73-84 win interval. However, the Houston Astros do have a lot of young talent and a solid batch of veterans to help them make a playoff run.
So now it’s your turn to predict the Astros 2015 season: