Astros in your Fantasy Part 1: Top 10 Prospects

Now that 2015 has arrived. I’m going to start a series of articles called Astros in your Fantasy. In this series I will look at the Astros that are or will be valuable assets to being successful to winning your fantasy leagues in 2015 and beyond. This will be a 10 part series to kick off the fantasy baseball season, and will only look at Astros players.

Next in series

January 9th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 2: George Springer

January 16th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 3: Jose Altuve

January 23rd, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 4: Dallas Keuchel

January 30th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 5: Chris Carter

February 6th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 6: Luke Gregerson

February 13th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 7 : Astros catchers

February 20th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 8: Jed Lowrie and other infielders

February 27th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 9: Astros outfielders

March 6th, 2015 – Astros in your Fantasy Part 10: Astros Rotation

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• Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
• Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

For part 1, we will look off of the Baseball America top 10 Astros prospects. The comparisons given are subject to change, but just looking at their minor leagues numbers, I picked who they compare best to. These projections may be optimistic, but as Astros fans we want the best from our young guys. They won’t all struggle at first like Jon Singleton and Domingo Santana have.

Next: Josh Hader

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#10 Astros Prospect: Josh Hader

ETA: 2016

#3 or #4 starter

I wrote recently about Josh Hader, who was acquired in the Bud Norris trade. He has a very deceptive delivery which has led to Chris Sale comparisons. He has a high strikeout rate in the minors but along with that, he has command issues and can give up the big fly from time to time. He should start the year in Double-A, then make a quick move up to Triple-A.

Of all the Astros pitching prospects, I see Hader sticking in the rotation because he is left-handed. I’m going to compare Hader’s possible rookie year to Scott Kazmir‘s first full season

10-9/3.77 ERA/186 innings/100 walks/174 strike-outs

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  If Hader stays in the rotation, he has a ceiling of a high strikeout but homer prone pitcher who could miss bats at a tune of seven to nine batters per nine but have a higher than league average ERA.  That should play enough to make Hader a back-of-the-rotation fantasy starter but might give owners pause to sell high on him.

Ceiling: Chris Sale higher ERA

Floor: Scott Kazmir

Next: Teoscar Hernandez

Aug 2, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

#9 Astros Prospect: Teoscar Hernandez

ETA: 2016

Average-Above Average Center fielder

Hernandez had a breakout season in 2014. He struggled a little after a promotion to Double-A, but has a potential to be a mini-five tool player in the majors. A good example of what Teoscar Hernandez could be is what Torii Hunter did earlier in his career. Like Torii Hunter, he will not be an elite outfielder, but he was good to have if you missed the big boys. I see him in his rookie year as Hunter did his first full year.

0.255/9 HR’s/35 RBI’s/10 SB’s

The only reason I think he will post those numbers in 2016, is because he won’t originally be up with the big club, but he will let his numbers do the talking. He will battle with Tony Kemp for center-field, but will probably beat him out on the power factor.

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  While I’m trying to temper expectations in my write-up, Hernandez should be owned in most Dynasty Leagues.  In fact, if he shorten up his swing and improve his two-strike approach, he could easily find his way into our Top 100 list.  The ceiling is a third outfielder on you fantasy team with 15 HR/20 SB ceiling, batting .260.

Ceiling: Torii Hunter

Floor: Dexter Fowler

Next: Rio Ruiz

Oct. 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Rio Ruiz (30) plays for the Salt River Rafters during an Arizona Fall League game against the Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

#8 Astros Top Prospect: Rio Ruiz

ETA: 2017

Solid Third Baseman

Rio Ruiz and Lance McCullers were able to be signed to above slot value because the Astros signed Carlos Correa to a lower value. Ruiz had some health concerns before the draft, which scared some teams off. He was supposed to be the future third baseman of the Astros, but in 2014 the Astros traded for Colin Moran, so Ruiz’s success will be based on either how successful Moran is, a position change, or if one of them is traded to another team.

Ruiz has more power potential than Moran, but both can’t play third base. I see Ruiz having a rookie season such as Manny Machado‘s second full season. But it depends on the number of at-bats he gets.

0.283/14 HR’s/71 RBI’s/ 6 SB’s

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  In rostering prospects in a Dynasty League, I look heavily at a player’s strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The reason is simple…hitting is the hardest tool to develop and usually players who can make strong contact with plate discipline will move faster through the system.  Ruiz can hit and therefore should be rostered in all Dynasty Leagues.  I do worry about his lack of athleticism and the fact that he’s noticeable heavier since being drafted two years.  That said, a .300 batting average with 15 to 20 home runs seems to be a good baseline for projecting Ruiz’s future ceiling.

Ceiling: Manny Machado

Floor: Nolan Arenado

Next: Colin Moran

Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Miami Marlins third baseman Colin Moran against the East during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Astros #7 Top Prospect: Colin Moran

ETA: 2015 (September Call-up)

Below Average Third Base.

The Astros obviously like Colin Moran, they almost drafted him number 1 (rumored) and the traded up and coming Jarred Cosart for him. He will likely be the Astros third baseman in 2016, but he will have to hit to prevent Rio Ruiz from taking his position a year or so later. Even when he was drafted, most people felt like he would hit, just not for power.

If he shows any hitting ability in Triple-A this year, I see the Astros calling him up to end the proposed Marwin Gonzalez experiment at third base. I see him hitting something similar to Brett Lawrie‘s rookie year, minus the stolen-bases.

0.293/9 Hr’s/25 RBI’s/7 SB’s

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  Moran is only rosterable in an AL Only Dynasty League.  I believe the ceiling is a .300 hitter with a good on-base percentage and 10 to 12 home runs.  There will be no speed.  In a mixed league, you just need more production out of your third base position.  Others will disagree, but if you own him, I would be pointing out those reviews and selling high on him.

Ceiling: Chris Carpenter

Floor:  Brett Lawrie

Next: Brett Phillips

Brett Phillips

Astros #6 Top Prospect: Brett Phillips

ETA: 2017

3rd-4th outfielder

I’ve already written about this emerging star already. He was able to hit a home run in 5 straight games, after a possum ran around the field prior to him hitting that fifth home run. He broke out last year showing improved plate discipline, with good power and stolen base numbers. But as Domingo Santana is learning, it’s hard to be an outfielder in the Astros’ organization.

I wrote earlier that he has Alex Presley-like ability when he was coming up to the majors. But comparing Presley’s numbers may not be fair to Phillips. So lets compare him more to Denard Span‘s rookie year. Phillips hits a lot of triples like Span does.

0.294/6 HR’s/47 RBI’s/18 SB’s

According to Prospects361.com, When you see Phillips play, he’s just one of the guys you want on your team.  He plays the game extremely hard but also has the athleticism to become a solid major league contributor.  He has enough bat speed to eventually hit 12 to 15 home runs at the big league level and above average foot speed to steal 20 plus bases.  His plate discipline and contactability also took a step forward this past year and projecting him with an above-average hit tool is reasonable.

Ceiling: Alex Gordon

Floor: Denard Span

Next: Michael Feliz

Aug 2, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Astros #5 Top Prospect: Michael Feliz

ETA: 2017

4th – 5th starter or closer

I’ve written about Michael Feliz already twice this offseason. The first when the Astros did not initially protect him on the 40-man roster, and then comparing Feliz to Josh Hader. He has a live arm, which generates a lot of swings and misses. Because he started at such a young age, he has a lot of professional experience already. I’m not sure there will be room for him in the rotation, even though he might break in as a starter.

I see him turning into a Wade Davis of sorts, starting in the rotation and succeeding more as a reliever, so I will compare his first year as a starter to Wade Davis’, even though I see slightly more strikeouts.

11-10/ 4.45 ERA/ 184 inning/ 105 k

Ceiling: Yordano Ventura

Floor: Wade Davis

Next: Vincent Velasquez

Aug 2, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of a Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Astros #4 Top Prospect: Vincent Velasquez

ETA: 2016

#2 starter

Vincent Velasquez was already on the map, but a good showing in Arizona Fall ball, got his name noticed more as an Astros top tier prospect. He has already had Tommy John surgery, but struck out 91 hitters in only 64 innings between Rookie ball and Single-A in 2014. He has the presence of an ace already.

Let’s compare his possible first full year in 2017 to Johnny Cueto, who has also had injury issues.

9-14/ 4.81 ERA / 174 innings/ 158 strikeouts

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  Velasquez has the ceiling of a top 40 starting pitching in fantasy.  His stuff will miss bats and a strikeout per inning is a reasonable ceiling.  He does pitch up in the zone and home runs could become a problem for him.  Overall, I think you should expect 180 innings, 160 to 190 strikeouts with better than league average ratios.  However, given his injury history, you need to add a high risk to the ceiling.

Ceiling: Johnny Cueto

Floor: Edinson Volquez

Next: Michael Foltynewicz

Aug 12, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (48) pitches during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Minute Maid Park. The Astros defeated the Twins 10-4. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Astros #3 Top Prospect: Michael Foltynewicz

ETA: 2015

#3-4 starter or closer.

I wrote earlier in the off-season about Michael Foltynewicz being told to get ready to be in the rotation in Spring Training. I think with the injury to Brad Peacock, there’s a pretty good chance he could be in the rotation come opening day. He had one of the highest average speeds (96.7 mph) with his fastball last year, but at times was very hittable and wild. However, when he was on, he was amazing to watch. The Astros have to decide where he is the most valuable moving forward.

I see him pitching like Gerrit Cole did in his rookie season.

10-7/ 3.33 ERA/ 117 innings/ 100 strikeouts

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  Foltynewicz is still a win-win situation for fantasy owners.  If his command and control improves, he could become at least a number three starter.  If it doesn’t the Astros will put him in the bullpen where his upside is a Wade Davis level setup man or a potential closer.

Ceiling: Gerrit Cole

Floor: Josh Fields

Next: Mark Appel

Oct. 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Mark Appel plays for the Salt River Rafters during an Arizona Fall League game against the Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Astros # 2 Top Prospect: Mark Appel

ETA: 2015 (after mid-season)

#1-2 starter.

There was a slight scare at the beginning of the season for Appel at Lancaster, but he pitched well at Double-A and Arizona League. He was drafted with the number one pick in 2013, and I wrote in the past month about when he will make his debut and whether or not the Astros would include him in a potential trade for Cole Hamels. Watching him in the Fall League, brought me memories of Shane Reynolds or Roy Oswalt pitching, so I’m using Oswalt as a comparison during his rookie season. Unless he is called up early in 2015, this projection is for 2016.

14-3/ 2.73 ERA/ 141 Innings/ 144 strikeouts.

According to Prospects361.com, Fantasy Impact:  The big question on fantasy owners mind is whether Mark Appel is a buy-low candidate.  If his owner is placing a number two starter tag on him, I’m walking away.  If he’s placing a number three, I’m buying.   I see him posting strikeout rates in the seven to eight per nine while not hurting himself by issuing free passes.  I just believe the stuff will be flat and he’ll give up more hits, more home runs than you would expect.  The BABIP will always scream a correction is coming but I’m afraid it never will.

Ceiling: Roy Oswalt

Floor: Shelby Miller

Next: Carlos Correa