Craig Biggio might be elected into the Hall of Fame on January 6, 2015. This is a prediction based on the website Baseball Think Factory‘s 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo. While this is only a prediction, listing 57 of the total 571 total votes (only 10%), but it gives you an idea of how the nominees are doing so far. The website looks at all the posted Hall of Fame ballots posted on Twitter or other social media, and uses a spreadsheet to generate the percentages. The spreadsheet also tracks the people who changed their vote for a certain player from last years ballot.
Here are the results so far, as of 9:18 PM (CST) on December 23, 2015:
98.2% – Pedro Martinez
98.2% – Randy Johnson
87.7% – John Smoltz
82.5% – Craig Biggio
78.9% – Mike Piazza
71.9% – Jeff Bagwell
40.9% – Roger Clemens
14% – Jeff Kent
While this is only 10% of the total vote, it’s a positive sign for Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell. To be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, a player must receive 75% of the total vote. Why is only 10% listed here? Most baseball writers don’t like to make their votes public due to people questioning their picks. Others may not be covering baseball anymore, and may not even know what Twitter or Facebook is. The final results will not be known until they are revealed in January, but this gives us an early idea of what voters are thinking.
Obviously, this year is the year of the pitcher with aces Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz all on the ballot. These three pitchers are most likely to go into the HOF this year. Then there is one of the most offensive catchers in history with Mike Piazza on the ballot. Then you have the Astros killer B’s as the other top vote getters. While it’s not impossible, very rarely do 6 players get voted into the HOF in one year.
Craig Biggio’s chances are actually pretty good for him to get in. Obviously the baseball HOF election process is like that teacher you had in High School who would not round your 69.8% to a 70% because you actually have to earn that 70%. That was the case for Biggio in 2014, in his second year on the ballot, he received 74.8% of the total votes. Yeah, that teacher will end up with a snake in his desk for not rounding that to a 75%. This is his 3rd year on the ballot.
One caution for Biggio is that every year more players are added, so he might lose some votes from last year. I can’t speak for the writers, but I would suspect that more people might vote for him just because he was so close last year. Also, the results from the same website on Christmas Day last year showed Biggio at 83.8%, which was more than his actual 74.8% he received.
More from Climbing Tal's Hill
- Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
- Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
- Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
- Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
- Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer
As for Jeff Bagwell no matter what his numbers say, people see this skinny guy his rookie year become this strong muscular man, and assume because of his friendship with the late Ken Caminiti that he used PEDs. He never tested positive for any performance enhancing drugs. Last year, Jeff Bagwell received 54.3% of the vote, which was a decrease of 5.3% from 2013. This will be his 5th year on the ballot, which would leave him 5 more years of Hall of Fame eligibility.
Before you get to excited, last year Baseball Think Factory counted Bagwell with 69.7%, which is more than the 54.3% that he received. So Baseball Writers of America, please vote Biggio and Bagwell. Like Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, these two players should go into the Hall of Fame together, like they played their entire career with the Astros.
While its nice to see Craig Biggio doing so well now, the only thing that matters is the votes announced on January 6 2015. Until then, we can only hope and pray.