2 looming decisions could shrink the Astros’ free agent options fast

The MLB offseason is marked by speculation and rumors, and while the Houston Astros have yet to be tied to anything concrete at this point in time, the organization has some obvious needs that must be addressed heading into 2026.

An upgrade in the outfield and a frontline starter are two of the top needs for Houston this winter, and by the sound of things, two of the Astros' most likely targets may soon make their pursuit a little more difficult.

Former New York Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham and ex-Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga were slapped with qualifying offers this offseason. Though each player is expected to decline their respective QOs — thus allowing them to enter the free agent market — doing so attaches draft compensation to their signing, something the Astros can ill-afford to sacrifice given the state of their current farm system.

Signing Trent Grisham or Shota Imanaga will come with a hefty price for the Astros

While Astros fans are used to seeing their team make a deep-October run and compete for the World Series, this year was a dose of reality for the Houston faithful. The Astros missed out on the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade, and the front office will attempt to rework the roster this offseason with some significant financial restrictions.

As such, the Astros can't afford to surrender any draft capital to sign marginal players like Grisham and Imanga. Though their previous organizations thought enough of them to apply the QO to their signing, neither player should be on Houston's radar if it means giving up a draft pick and signing them to a long-term deal.

Frontline starters like Dylan Cease, Michael King, and even Ranger Suarez also have a QO attached to their signing, but all three offer enough upside to surrender a top draft pick in order to bring them into the fold.

While Grisham and Imanaga are fine players, there are other comparable players available in free agency this offseason who don't require draft compensation as a means to signing them. The Astros will also gain an extra draft pick — something the organization desperately needs — if Framber Valdez signs elsewhere this offseason. All signs point to that happening, though a reunion is still on the table.