Yordan Alvarez stayed healthy and put together an MVP season for the Astros

Early on in my teaching career, veteran teachers taught me the idea of the sandwich when working with parents. No, this does not mean I get to eat a sandwich while I'm talking to them. It means you sandwich the negative stuff between outer layers of positives. For one, you are offering two positives for every negative. Secondly, you are starting off positive and ending positive. I am trying the same approach this offseason with the Astros.

Make no mistake, the "meat" layer will be substantial and one of those sandwiches that is impossible to take a whole bite out of. However, before we dive into the meat of it all, it is high time to look at the one main positive of the season. We kept wondering what would happen if Yordan ever had a fully healthy season. 2026 was the answer to that question. There are four legitimate candidates for MVP. We will look at the conventional numbers and the sabermetric numbers to determine what case Yordan has.

I know what you're thinking. You are thinking what in the hell is Bobby Witt doing in this table. The other three look very close in terms of home runs, runs, and RBI, but we have learned that there is a lot more to baseball and value than those three stats. What we will do is demonstrate this without using WAR. WAR is still a fairly controversial stat because some people think it is impossible to encapsulate everything a player does in one number. Fine.

So, instead we are breaking down its components. We will look at runs created for a more accurate view of what a player does at the plate, base running runs to see what they do on the bases, and defensive runs saved to see what they do in the field. Additionally, we will also look at wRC+ and wOBA from Fangraphs to get an idea of how they compare offensively.

I introduced the concept of "total runs" a couple of weeks ago and it includes a positional adjustment. That is how Witt gets into the conversation. However, notice that when you add up runs created, base running runs, and fielding runs he comes pretty close to Caminero and Alonso. In fact, he is tied with Alonso and slightly ahead of Caminero. One of the core ideas behind WAR is the concept of positional scarcity. In other words, there are usually fewer dominant shortstops than dominant corner infielders and DHs.

However, in order to ding Alvarez you would have to assume that DH is worth nearly 30 fewer runs than a shortstop, first basemen, or third basemen.

One of the misnomers about the MVP award is the notion that playoff success matters. Voters have to turn in their votes on the last day of the season.

Alvarez and Caminero were playoff participants while Alonso and Witt were not. Obviously, that is not their fault, but some voters will eliminate them because they did not play in any meaningful games.

I kept my promise. I am not even looking at WAR, but the WAR figures would say something fairly similar. Alvarez was just worth more runs than any of those other guys. He led the league in batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. Obviously, that also means he led in OPS. If the MVP award is supposed to go to the best player in the league then there really is no contest this season.

This isn't a futures market. I would probably rather have Witt over the long-term because of his age and defensive position. Caminero is also very young and has that same consideration. This isn't about who will have the better career. This is about who had the best season and there really is no contest there.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow