Yordan Alvarez’s MVP case for Astros may not be as ironclad as you might think

It has often been said that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. That doesn't speak well for those of us in the stats game. In fact, there are all kinds of numbers and those numbers always show something. The key is in not overstating their purpose. WAR is one of those numbers. As much as I like WAR as a quick resource, I always strive to go beyond it and to show some of its components to make these things more understandable for the masses.

The AL MVP is really a two-horse race when you eliminate pitchers from the conversation. It would seem that the player that has led the league in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs, runs, and RBI for most of the season should also be the hands down MVP winner. WAR would disagree. However, instead of simply looking at WAR, we should look at its components.

Bill James developed a number before he retired that he called "runs created (RC)". The essential concept is to take all of the things a player does and combine it into one number. Unlike other numbers, it included a positional adjustment to allow for differences between more challenging defensive positions and positions that are more offensively focused. Baseball-reference.com has a number for that they call "RPos." If we add in Rfield (their fielding metric closely aligned with defensive runs saved), Rbaser (their base running metric), and runs created (offensive production) then we will get a pretty good approximation of what each player is actually worth to their team.

I could show off a fancy table for WAR, but both major sources (Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com) have pegged Bobby Witt Jr. at 6.5 wins coming into play on Tuesday. Yordan Alvarez has 6.0 wins according to both sources. So, how in the hell is a superior offensive player coming up that far short in WAR?

These numbers make it look a lot closer than what we would have surmised. Witt is a good defensive shortstop and a good base runner. Plus, shortstop is a lot more challenging than designated hitter. We could get into the weeds on WAR, but both WAR formulas punish DHs for negative fielding value even if a full-time DH would technically have 0 Rfield. Yordan has obviously played enough games in left field to register in the negative there.

The BBWAA votes for the postseason awards and the voting body is a living breathing thing. In other words, the cigar smoking guys with the pot bellies are being replaced with people more savvy to statistics. So, it is not as easy as saying that Yordan is the superior offensive player. Some voters are actually looking at overall value and the word value is a four letter word.

Even before the days of advanced analytics there was a huge debate over what it means to be the most valuable player. Are we looking for the best player in the league or are we looking for the player that played the biggest role in helping his team win? Branch Rickey once told Ralph Kiner that he could finish last with him or without him. So, while Kiner may have been one of the best players in the National League at the time, many would argue he was not a significantly valuable player.

Value can be interpreted as a mathematical concept. The player with the most wins above replacement can be called the most valuable player by sheer definition. Others would point out that the Royals haven't played a meaningful game since June whereas the Astros are in the heat of a pennant race largely because Yordan has been superhuman for much of the season. Neither argument is necessarily right or wrong in this instance.

While it might seem incomprehensible that Yordan could lose out on the MVP award, there is an argument to be made for Witt. As much as I like WAR, I'm not sure that the WAR leader should automatically win the award. For instance, there is a considerable case to be made last season for Cal Raleigh in spite of Aaron Judge leading the league in WAR. A lot will come down to whether the Astros actually go on to win the AL West. If they fall short, they may consider the fact that Witt played on a bad team to be a wash. Those of us in Houston would obviously vote for Yordan, but it is important that we recognize that it isn't necessarily obvious for everyone.

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