Why Astros must avoid Jeff Bagwell GM temptation (and how they should pivot)

It has been suggested that Jeff Bagwell should be the general manager of the Houston Astros. I happen to believe the opposite. He shouldn't be within ten miles of major decisions for this ballclub.

The whys and what fors are obviously important here. While ex-players have been very successful as executives in other sports, you would be hard pressed to find highly successful ones in baseball. It is just a different sport with more numbers and more under consideration like scouting and player development pitfalls that the other major sports do not have. However, the more important reason is that he failed in his trial run in 2023.

The two most consequential decisions that offseason were both done before Dana Brown took over. It involved signing Jose Abreu to a three year, 60 million dollar contract and re-signing Rafael Montero to a three year 34.5 million dollar contract. I should note that most Astros fans were onboard with signing Abreu and I was one of those. I was nervous about the third year but saw it as the price of doing business. The Montero contract was asinine before the ink even dried. Last year he was officially one of the top ten highest paid relievers in baseball. Just wrap your head around that one.

Furthermore, he still is spouting off a anti-analytical philosophy that runs counter to what has built this team to be a consistent playoff contender and the direction that baseball is going in general. You could argue that going with the scouting heavy general manager like Dana Brown was a mistake, so going with a former great player would be doubling down on that failed philosophy.

Make no mistake, there are former players that serve as general managers (or have). Billy Beane is the most famous of those and when you look at those that have served or are currently serving in that capacity you will notice two immediate things. First, the results are mixed at best. For every Beane there is a Jerry Dipoto who is currently embattled in Seattle and failed in Los Angeles. Chris Young of the Rangers is the only significant one to go onto win a title, but even those results would best be called mixed.

It is important to look at why this happens. There is nothing to say that a former player cannot apprentice in a baseball front office and learn the business from the ground up. Beane follwed that path as an advanced scout and then an assistant general manager. Very few guys are able to leave their couch and just come in and do the job well. It's not like the NFL and the NBA. Comparing MLB to those leagues short-changes everyone invovled. Winning in the NFL, NBA, and MLB require different skills.

The most likely result is that you will not have heard of whoever they hire as general manager.

Few fans had heard of Jeff Luhnow, James Click, or Dana Brown before they were hired. Two of the three went onto steward the team to World Series titles. You aren't looking for a fancy name as much as you are looking for a particular set of skills.

If you want to force me to list a name I would think someone more like Sig Mejdal would be in the offing. Mejdal was an assistant here under Luhnow and is currently an assistant in Baltimore. He is as advanced as anyone in terms of analytics. This job will require a number of different traits that will be difficult to find in combination. It will require advanced knowledge of analytics to take advantage of inefficiencies in evaluating current professional talent. It will require an organized mind to build a good scouting department and player development system that can become a pipeline to the big leagues again. It will require creativity to get around an aging roster and shrinking available dollars. It won't be easy to find someone that can do all of those things at once.

I don't think the Astros are hiring Mejdal. I think anyone with former Houston ties is likely a long shot. Still, you are much more likely to see them hire someone from a smaller market that has been successful. Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay come to mind. Those places have already been listed as fertile ground for them to hunt. Honestly, the best result is that they hire someone you haven't heard of. Retreads and guys like Bagwell are the wrong direction to take. This team needs creativity and not people that look on the back of baseball cards for their information.

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