Vintage Framber Valdez outing saved his own free agency, but not Astros' playoff hopes

The Houston Astros received a dominant performance from Framber Valdez on Thursday night during a desperate time. Entering the contest having lost five straight games, the Astros badly needed a win to keep their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, and Valdez delivered in vintage style, striking out 10 Athletics hitters and allowing just one earned run in seven innings. 

Houston won the game 11-5 and will now close their season with a three-game set on the road against the Los Angeles Angels. For Valdez, the outing was not only big for his club; it did something to salvage his value on the upcoming free agent market.

Framber Valdez’s drowning free agency value just received a life raft

Valdez has been at the center of Houston’s massive struggles in recent weeks. Entering Thursday’s game, the 31-year-old was 1-7 with a 6.71 ERA over his last nine starts, and the Astros had gone 1-8 in those games.

Valdez’s horrendous stretch has only made it clearer to the Astros that they should move on from him this offseason. His selfish and unsavory antics this year, such as crossing-up his own catcher, or criticizing his defense, had already sealed that fate with Houston. But to a degree, the Astros didn’t want him to completely nuke his value in the eyes of other suitors, with the Astros’ likely plan being to present the $22 million qualifying offer to Valdez, so that they may acquire draft picks from whichever team Valdez signs with after rejecting said offer. 

With Valdez’s value on the market plummeting in each successive start recently, Thursday’s return to excellence was a much-needed happenstance in regard to the above plan.

If the Astros were able to sneak into the playoffs and advertise Valdez’s value even more, that plan might be strengthened further. Unfortunately for Houston, things aren’t looking good on that front.

Astros are on the verge of missing the postseason for the first time since 2016

Valdez’s sparkling start and the Astros’ victory on Thursday didn't change the fact that Houston lost the series to the Athletics and were swept by the Seattle Mariners in the series prior. By stringing together five straight losses at the worst possible time, the Astros effectively doomed their playoff chances.

Though the Astros are still just one game back of the third spot in the American League wild-card (entering Friday), they would lose a tiebreaker to any of the other teams potentially landing in that third spot: the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, and Cleveland Guardians.

If the Astros either sweep the Angels or win two out of three, there are still some miraculous scenarios remaining that would lead to a playoff berth, but Houston no longer controls its own destiny.

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