Throwing harder isn't the only key to Astros' starter Hunter Brown's breakout in 2025

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has seen an uptick in velocity this season. The right-hander's fastball was sitting around 96 mph last season, slotting him among the top 25% of major league pitchers in terms of velocity. But this year, Brown's heater is coming in even faster. According to Baseball Savant, Brown's four-seam fastball is averaging 97 mph and he now ranks in the 89th percentile.

While an increase in velocity will certainly help, Brown's breakout in 2025 has been about more than just the giddy-up on his fastball. Brown has all but ditched his cutter this season and increased his reliance on both his sinker and curveball. This has resulted in batters chasing balls outside the strike zone and an increase in Brown's overall chase rate.

Both Brown's slider and sinker in particular have seen an increase in run value already this season, and if this continues, the right-hander will be a surefire All-Star in 2025. Assuming he can go the distance, Brown could even enter the AL Cy Young conversation before too long.

Throwing harder isn't the only key to Astros' starter Hunter Brown's breakout in 2025

There's a difference between being a thrower and a pitcher, which is something Brown appears to have figured out this season. Throwing a 97 mph heater upstairs will get a lot of swing and miss, but eventually hitters will lay off the high heat and wait for you to make a mistake in the zone. Brown's four (and sometimes five) pitch mix is keeping hitters off balance, and his performance so far this season has been masterful.

Brown's development of his off-speed pitch has really baffled the opposition. His strikeout rate on the changeup is up over 3% from last season, and hitters are only hitting .133 with a .200 slugging percentage when he takes a little off. Compare this to last season when the opposing batters were hitting Brown's changeup to the tune of .221 with a .260 slugging percentage. The hard hit rate on his changeup has fallen from a troublesome 23.4% in 2024 to and meager 8.3% this season.

So while throwing harder has undoubtedly helped Brown rack up a few extra Ks this season, it's been changing speed and commanding the rest of his arsenal that's turned the right-hander from a frontline starter into the Astros' unquestioned ace. Sorry, Framber Valdez fans, but it's true.

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