This Dylan Cease trade package could net Astros another ace

While the Houston Astros' offseason has had a clear (if chaotic) plan, nobody knows what the Padres are doing this offseason. The Friars are an absolute mess, and things are only getting worse. After taking the Dodgers to the brink during the postseason, the Padres have lost their spark plug (Jurickson Profar), a Gold Glove defender (Ha-Seong Kim), an All-Star reliever (Tanner Scott), and their starting catcher (Kyle Higashioka). In addition to the roster turnover, there's some in-fighting among the ownership.

Couple all that with a franchise who's made just one major-league signing this offseason (Elias Diaz) while looking to cut payroll, and you've got an organization that's in free-fall. No wonder the Padres are shopping their entire roster.

According to New York Post columnist Jon Heyman, the Padres are looking to sell anything and everything that's not nailed down. Unless you're name is Fernando Tatis Jr. or Manny Machado, you're available. That includes starting pitcher Dylan Cease. The right-hander finished fouth in the NL Cy Young vote last year while posting a 3.47 ERA and racking up 224 strikeouts. Cease is a bonafide ace and would look quite good in the Astros' starting rotation. Should Houston attempt to make a deal?

Houston's lack of pitching depth warrants the Astros to explore a trade for Padres starter Dylan Cease

Before we dive into the haul that San Diego would like in exchange for their ace, some of the Houston faithful might question why the Astros would even entertain the idea of adding Cease. After all, he'll be a free agent after the season and Houston's rotation is relatively deep, right?

While that's true, Astros fans need only look back at last year's injury-riddled campaign to understand why you can never have enough pitching. Heading into spring training, Houston will already be without Christian Javier, J.P. France, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. If one of the Astros starters goes down during spring training, Houston will have a big problem.

Cease is also a durable, frontline starter who's taking home about half of what ace-caliber pitchers are making on the open market. Cease is signed to a one-year, $13.75 million contract for 2025. While the 29-year-old will surely test free agency next winter, if the Astros acquired him before the season starts, Houston could extend a qualifying offer in order to receive draft compensation in 2026.

What might an Astros-Padres trade for Dylan Cease look like?

Taking into consideration what the Padres gave up just one year ago to get Cease, one has to assume that San Diego is looking for at least two top prospects. Last spring's deal with the White Sox cost the Friars four top-10 organizational prospects, but Cease's salary was only $8 million and he had two years of team control remaining. While he's still a top-tier pitcher, he's a year older, more expensive, and one year closer to free agency — all of which will bring the price tag down.

Houston Astros

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Dylan Cease, RHP

San Diego Padres

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Brice Matthews, SS/3B

Miguel Ullola, RHP

Colton Gordon, LHP

Landing Cease would cost the Astros at least one top-5 organizational prospect. Since no one wants to see Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers patrolling the outfield forever, Houston needs to hold on to Jacob Melton and Luis Baez. Cam Smith isn't going anywhere, so that leaves Brice Matthews as the odd man out.

If the Astros were to pair Matthews with at least one, and maybe two mid-tier pitching prospects, that could be enough to tempt the Friars to part with Cease. Perhaps the combination of Matthews, Miguel Ullola, and Colton Gordon would be enough to pry the the Padres ace out of San Diego.

While so many Astros fans are preoccupied with the team's continued pursuit of Alex Bregman, shoring up the starting rotation with another ace would be much more prudent. Pitchers like Cease don't become available very often, and Houston should take full advantage of this opportunity.

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