Astros lose key reliever who became crucial 2025 bullpen cog away from the spotlight

While starting rotation depth and left-handed thump in the lineup are pressing needs for the Houston Astros, one unit that has been stellar all year is the bullpen. The unit ranks second in the majors in ERA with a 3.28 mark and comes in first in K/9 with 10.59, having spent the entire season at or near the top in pretty much all the important metrics as well as getting some big time contributions from some unexpected places on the roster.

A lot of criticism has been warranted for the way the Astros handled the offseason, but the move to trade Ryan Pressly has worked out beautifully. Now with the Cubs, Pressly has posted the second worst ERA of his career (4.03) and the second lowest K/9 (6.21), which pairs terribly next to him posting the second highest BB/9 of his career (3.72). Meanwhile, Houston received an intriguing young arm back from Chicago.

Perhaps more importantly, moving on from Pressly opened up roles for other players to step up in Houston's pen as the team has gotten both younger and more effective in those middle and late innings. One such reliever who has emerged from the shadows in the wake of Pressly's departure has been 29-year-old right-hander Shawn Dubin who unfortunately just went on the IL with a forearm strain.

Shawn Dubin has been an overlooked weapon out of the Houston Astros bullpen

When most think about Houston's bullpen, the names that come to mind are naturally Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. With good reason, too. Hader has long been one of the best relief arms in the game and has posted a dominant 40.5% strikeout rate this season. Abreu isn't quite as otherworldly, but his 1.83 ERA shows he's been incredibly effective at mowing down the opposition and clearing the way for Hader to put the opposition down permanently.

However, one of the most dominant arms, at least by ERA, typically comes into the game in the middle innings and sets the scene for the impressive back-end duo. Leading the team in ERA with a 1.33 mark and taking on that role is Dubin.

Dubin has been incredibly effective this year at passing the baton to Abreu and Hader, often serving has the bridge between the starter and those late-inning relief aces. He's excelled at getting out of jams (99.1% left on base rate which admittedly is unsustainable), and gotten just enough strikeouts (22.2% K-rate) and ground balls (41.8%) to limit damage and rack up outs.

This may come as a surprise, as the 2018 13th-round pick was never a highly touted prospect. Dubin didn't arrive in the bigs until 2023, making just three appearances (one start) and logging 9 innings while pitching to a 7.00 ERA.

In 2024, he made two spot starts but mostly served as a long man out of the pen, making 31 appearances and hurling 45.1 innings. The overall results were mixed with 9.73 K/9 on the positive end, 5.16 BB/9 on the negative side, and a decent but unspectacular 4.17 ERA.

Unfortunately, all the good work that Dubin has done this year is in jeopardy now. Forearm strains are often a prelude to a more serious elbow diagnosis. One hopes that he will be able to bounce back quickly, but Astros fans know all too well that long-term arm injuries can come out of nowhere like this.

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