Tatsuya Imai's rebound start vs. Marlins adds even more confusion for Astros at trade deadline

It’s hard to know which Tatsuya Imai the Houston Astros are going to see from start to start, but the one who took the mound on Tuesday night at Daikin Park sure looked like the guy they paid $54 million to this winter. Six innings, one run, four hits, three walks, eight strikeouts.

The problem is that nobody can tell you which Imai will take the ball his next time out. That’s been the story of his first season stateside. And it’s exactly why this start doesn’t actually settle much of anything, no matter how encouraging it was. If anything, it only complicates the Astros’ trade deadline math with less than two weeks to go before August 3.

Tatsuya Imai's latest start was good, but doesn't change Astros' deadline outlook

What’s so interesting about it all is that the raw stuff doesn’t really change. His splitter still works off the fastball the same way whether he throws six brilliant innings or can’t get out of the first. The difference almost always comes down to the edges in the zone. When he’s ahead in counts, hitters chase pitches. But when he’s behind, he catches way too much of the plate in an effort to avoid walks (which he’s not avoiding anyway), and hitters make him pay. Tuesday night was the guy who had it all working. It was great to see, but the Astros have to know it could be fleeting. 

That volatility is frustrating in general, but it matters more than usual because the Astros aren’t just trying to make the playoffs. They’re trying to figure out what they have internally before deciding how much to spend externally on the trade market.

The front office has already signaled its intent in many ways, with the most recent being the move to send Lance McCullers Jr. to the Brewers. That freed up money and made it clear the front office has bigger things on its mind. Houston has been connected with Tarik Skubal and Sonny Gray, though the availability of both is murky at best even if the Astros could find the prospect capital to acquire either. But the point is that they’re working to create financial flexibility to take on a deal. According to Yahoo Sports, this is a team that knows it needs pitching and is willing to move for it. 

There’s still a question of where that leaves Imai. If they could know the version they saw against the Marlins would show up the rest of the season, the Astros’ deadline plan needs to be a lot different than if it’s the guy who showed up against the Royals or the Mariners or the Twins. A top-of-the-rotation arm becomes a bit less urgent if Imai can be counted on every fifth day. But it’s more urgent if this was another one-start blip like we’ve seen so many times from him this season.

None of this is to complain about his outing on Tuesday. The results were what they were, and showed what he’s capable of doing. But one start against a team that’s now lost eight in a row (after winning 26 of 34) while scoring more than two runs just twice doesn’t erase three-plus months of inconsistency. The Astros’ front office knows that as well as anyone. They have a front row seat to it. They’re still actively working the market for arms, which tells you they’re not ready to bet the season on the hope of Imai. 

Entering Wednesday, the Astros are just three games back in the AL West and four games out of a Wild Card spot. They’re close enough that every start matters and every roster decision carries extra weight. Imai gave them exactly what they needed on Tuesday night. Whether he can do it again in five days, five days after that, and five days after that remains to be seen. Nobody can confidently answer that. And until they can, expect the front office to keep operating like they can’t afford to find out the hard way.

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