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Tatsuya Imai injury scare turned out to be minor, but Astros’ optimism with him is questionable

Unbridled optimism isn't always warranted.
May 31, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45) walks to the dugout after retiring the side against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images
May 31, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Tatsuya Imai (45) walks to the dugout after retiring the side against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Tatsuya Imai may be more comfortable with big league life, but while the camaraderie has grown within the Houston Astros' clubhouse, the results on the field haven't come along the same way. The prized offseason acquisition managed just 3 2/3 innings in his last start on July 7 against the Washington Nationals, allowing four hits, four walks, and two runs in a laborious 84-pitch performance.

That brought the 28-year-old's ERA to 6.06 on the season over just 52 innings pitched. With 5.71 BB/9 and 1.56 HR/9, Imai has done himself no favors. He ranks in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity, coming in at 90.2 miles per hour. He rarely fools hitters, generating a 27.2% chase rate, ranking in the 19th percentile. His 45.9% hard-hit rate is a seventh-percentile performance.

Basically, he misses the zone often, and hitters aren't going fishing, but when he is in the zone, he's getting crushed. That's a double-whammy of ineffectiveness. But if you ask the Astros, they aren't concerned.

"Coming from Japan to the U.S., there’s been some ups and downs, which we knew that was going to happen,” Joe Espada said following the game. “It’s part of the process, and he’s adjusting to this league. He’s grown and he’s leaning on people to make that adjustment and we’ve seen his growth the last couple of weeks. I’m expecting him to be someone we can rely on in the second half.”

The Astros have no other choice but to rely on Tatsuya Imai, even if they know they shouldn't

If we're being honest, Houston's rotation is in shambles. Mike Burrows is now in Sugar Land after posting a 5.99 ERA. The wheels have fallen off for Spencer Arrighetti in recent weeks. Even Hunter Brown got roughed up in his last start, giving up six earned runs over four innings on July 4 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The most consistent starter has been Peter Lambert, who didn't make the Opening Day roster, couldn't manage to hold down a rotation spot for the lowly Colorado Rockies, and posted a mediocre 4.26 ERA in Japan's NPB last year.

Houston desperately needs to add another starter before the trade deadline, and really, multiple arms would be the right move. Unfortunately, they don't have the prospect capital nor wiggle room against the luxury tax to make multiple high-profile rotation additions and address their other needs like a left-handed hitting outfielder and some bullpen help.

So, that is forcing them to hope for the best with Imai. There have been flashes, such as his performance in the combined no-hitter against the rival Texas Rangers on May 25. About a month later, he went on a strikeout-fueled rampage through two AL Central opponents: the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers.

Two straight solid starts were enough to generate some optimism, but in his two starts since, he's tallied five total innings, walked eight batters, and given up seven earned runs.

So, Houston will need to add another starter, but also must believe that Imai can be a second-half contributor. That belief might not actually come from any real conviction, but rather because the Astros don't have another choice aside from hoping for the best.

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